Tennessee vs. Kentucky preview: Betting trends, advanced stats analysis
Tennessee will head into Lexington for a top-10 showdown on Saturday evening.
Both of these teams are a bit wounded after losing earlier this week to unranked opponents at home. Tennessee lost to an underrated South Carolina squad (something Kentucky knows something about as well) while the Wildcats dropped an overtime-thriller to Florida.
A loss for Kentucky would put the Wildcats at 5-4 in conference play and all but eliminate them from SEC contention. A loss for Tennessee (5-2 in SEC play) would put the Vols’ conference title chances in serious jeopardy.
Let’s break down this matchup:
Tennessee vs. Kentucky Betting Odds
Spread: Kentucky -1 (DraftKings)
Total: Over/Under 159 points (DraftKings)
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Betting trends to know for Tennessee
Tennessee is…
- 8-11-1 against the spread
- 0-3 against the spread as the underdog
- 1-4 against the spread on the road
- 0-1 against the spread as a road underdog
- 3-4 against the spread in SEC games
Tennessee hasn’t been great against the spread all season, particularly in road games. The Vols haven’t managed to beat the number as the away team since their first road game of the year against Wisconsin. Since then, Tennessee is 0-4 ATS and 2-2 straight up as the road team. With that being said, Tennessee has been close to breaking through that barrier over the last couple weeks. The Vols failed to cover in wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt (their last 2 road games) by a combined 2 points.
Betting trends to know for Kentucky
Kentucky is…
- 12-8 against the spread
- 7-6 against the spread at home
- 9-7 against the spread as a favorite
- 4-4 against the spread in SEC games
- 3-0 against the spread vs. ranked opponents
Kentucky is coming off a home loss to Florida in the mid-week and is now a short favorite at home against the Vols in a top-10 matchup. The Wildcats have been good in this spot so far this season — they’re 3-0 ATS vs. ranked opponents. Overall, Kentucky is just 2-4 against the spread in its last 6 games.
3 notes for the game
Dalton Knecht vs. Antonio Reeves
Dalton Knecht and Antonio Reeves are both top contenders for SEC Player of the Year and are both likely to end the year on the shortlist for All-America honors.
Knecht’s season has been loud. He has exploded over the past few weeks and is averaging 28.4 points per game against SEC competition with a true shooting percentage of 63.7%. He has scored 30+ points 4 times in his last 5 games on outstanding efficiency. A midseason slump has dragged his scoring average down to 20.1 points per game for the season, but don’t be fooled — this is the best scorer in the SEC and possibly the country.
Reeves’ season has been more quiet. He is 4th in the SEC in scoring with 19.5 points per game, but he doesn’t seem to get the same attention that Knecht does. Reeves has just 1 30-point game (compared to Knecht’s 5) but has been as consistent as anyone in the SEC this season. He’s excellent from 3-point range (43.8%) and in the mid-range (48.1% on far 2s per BartTorvik). His usage rate is also a very-reasonable 25.1% (second on the team behind Rob Dillingham).
The biggest difference in the public perception between the two might be due to their supporting casts. Reeves is surrounded by other capable shot-makers like Dillingham, Reed Sheppard and Tre Mitchell. When Knecht doesn’t score — and even sometimes when he does — Tennessee’s offense stagnates. You don’t have to look back too far to see an example of this. In Tennessee’s most recent game, the Vols lost at home to South Carolina because they managed just 0.91 points per possession. Knecht poured in 31 points in that contest, but only one other Vol managed more than 6 points.
Kentucky’s regression was predictable, but will it continue?
After a hot start to the season, Kentucky has lost 3 of its last 6 games and is quickly fading from SEC title contention. Two of those 3 losses have come in overtime, including a 94-91 loss to Florida at home earlier this week. In the preview for that game, I noted that Kentucky was out-performing its ShotQuality metrics on the year to a dangerous degree. Not much has changed since then, as UK has still won 5 more games than ShotQuality’s metrics would expect to this point in the season — making the Wildcats one of the “luckiest” teams in the SEC so far in 2023-24.
To break that down a little further, ShotQuality ranks Kentucky’s offense at No. 81 nationally. That’s a significant drop-off from its performance in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric so far this season (10th entering Saturday’s slate). Defensively, UK ranks in the 70s according to both ShotQuality and KenPom, so there’s some alignment on that side of the ball.
The numbers show a pretty significant regression has already started for Kentucky’s 2-point shooting percentage over its past 3 games. During that span, the Wildcats are shooting just 41.7% (60-of-144) from inside the arc. For the season, with this drought included, the Wildcats are at an elite 54.2% from 2-point range. Given that Kentucky doesn’t get to the free throw line often and takes just an average number of 3-pointers, that trend is a massive problem for the Wildcats’ offense. Is it possible this is just small sample size noise? Absolutely. But it’s harder to dismiss it as such when a metric like ShotQuality shows Kentucky has overachieved offensively for the vast majority of the season.
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Kentucky is banged up
Justin Edwards and DJ Wagner both missed Kentucky’s most recent game against Florida. Both Edwards and Wagner have played significant roles for the Wildcats this season, although neither freshman has been particularly efficient offensively.
Edwards told reporters on Friday that he’s hopeful he will be able to play on Saturday vs. the Vols. He injured his quad in practice before the Arkansas game last week and has been working his way back since then. Edwards has started 18 games for UK so far this season and would be an option to guard Knecht if healthy.
Wagner is believed to have an ankle injury and his status for Saturday is uncertain. Wagner has started every game for the Wildcats when healthy this season.
1 pick for this game
Tennessee +1. This line has had some significant movement since it first opened. The Vols were favored by 1.5 points until Saturday morning when it moved toward the Wildcats. Picking Kentucky to lose back-to-back games at home feels risky, but that’s where the numbers are pointing me. Both KenPom and BartTorvik are projecting narrow Tennessee wins — and that’s with Kentucky’s offense having inflated efficiency numbers, according to ShotQuality’s data. Rebounding was an issue for UK against Florida, and Tennessee figures to have the edge on the boards as well in this matchup. I think Tennessee got caught looking past South Carolina in its last game and will be ready to bounce back in Lexington.
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