Tennessee vs. Oklahoma is the game of the week in the SEC. 

In addition to pitting a pair of top-25 teams against each other, this game is loaded with storylines. It’s OU’s first-ever SEC game. It’s Josh Heupel’s return to his alma mater a decade after he was fired as the Sooners’ offensive coordinator. It’s also a chance at revenge for the Vols, who were swept in a home-and-home series by Oklahoma in 2014-15.

The on-field storylines are interesting, too. Both of these teams — in theory — have explosive offenses and stable defenses. In practice, that hasn’t quite come to fruition yet in some cases (more on that later), but nonetheless, this is a fascinating matchup between a pair of CFP-hopefuls in the SEC.

Let’s breakdown some historical betting trends, advanced stats from Week 1 and some other useful info about these teams:

Tennessee vs. Oklahoma betting lines

Lines via DraftKings:

Spread: Tennessee -7 (-112) | Oklahoma +7 (-108) 

Total: Over 57.5 (-110) | Under 57.5 (-110)

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Betting trends to know for Tennessee

Tennessee is…

  • 3-0 against the spread in 2024
  • 6-7 against the spread on the road under Josh Heupel
  • 5-3 against the spread as a road favorite under Josh Heupel
  • 9-6 against the spread as a favorite in SEC games under Josh Heupel

Betting trends to know for Oklahoma

Oklahoma is…

  • 2-1 against the spread in 2024
  • 2-2 against the spread as an underdog under Brent Venables (all neutral-site games)
  • 9-6 against the spread at home under Brent Venables

Advanced Stats preview 

Success rate will be the most important stat referenced in this section. Whether or not a play is “successful” depends on the down and distance of a given play. Here’s a breakdown of how much yardage is necessary for a play to be deemed “successful” depending on the context:

  • 1st down: Teams must gain at least 50% of required yardage
  • 2nd down: Teams must gain at least 70% of required yardage
  • 3rd or 4th down: Teams must gain 100% of required yardage

Defensively, numbers are presented as what the defense allowed the offense to achieve. So on defense, a 35% success rate is better than a 40% success rate.

Let’s dig into what success rate says about this matchup:

Rushing success rate

  • Tennessee rushing offense success rate: 56.1% (14th)
  • Oklahoma rushing defense success rate: 26.6% (9th)

This is something of a stalemate on paper. Both of these units have been very good, albeit against lackluster competition. The Vols have run the ball a ton over their first 3 games. They’ve got a rushing rate north of 54% even when weeding out garbage time, which is a pretty high number. But a large part of that may have been due to the quality of opponent the Vols have faced. NC State is the only power-conference team Tennessee has played so far, but even the Wolfpack look like a shell of themselves on the defensive end of the field to start the year. Dylan Sampson, with a success rate of 62% per GameOnPaper, has been Tennessee’s most efficient running back so far this season. DeSean Bishop has been Tennessee’s home run-hitter — he has a 36% success rate but is averaging over 10 yards per attempt. That’s a 1-2 punch that is certainly capable of punishing Oklahoma if its not on top of things this weekend. 

Like with Tennessee, Oklahoma’s strength-of-schedule to this point in the year is certainly questionable. The Sooners have played Temple, Houston and Tulane. None of those teams rank in the top-85 nationally for rushing success rate. But give Oklahoma credit: it has kept those teams from doing much of anything on the ground. How much will that be worth when OU has to match up with a team that has as much talent as Tennessee? I’m not sure, but there are reasons for optimism that Oklahoma can hold its own in this phase of the game.

  • Oklahoma rushing offense success rate: 35.2% (116th)
  • Tennessee rushing defense success rate: 21.2% (3rd)

Oklahoma has really struggled to run the ball this season. A 35% rushing success rate against the defenses the Sooners have played is terrifying ahead of a meeting with Tennessee. But a word of caution: Oklahoma’s inability to run the ball likely has a lot to do with injury issues on the offense line. Oklahoma has been playing with a 4th string center and a backup right tackle for the past couple of games. Starters Branson Hickman and Jake Taylor are questionable for Week 4, which would have a significant impact on what OU is able to do in the run game against the Vols. There’s also the wildcard of Troy Everett, who can play center and was listed as probable on OU’s Wednesday injury report. Beyond the structural issues, Oklahoma doesn’t appear to be using its running backs optimally yet. True freshman Taylor Tatum averages 6.8 yards per rush and has a success rate of 40%. Those aren’t elite numbers in this small of a sample vs. lackluster competition, but they’re far better than what Javontae Barnes and Gavin Sawchuk have produced so far this season. And yet Tatum trails both of those backs in carries on the year (although he’s close to surpassing Sawchuk).

Even if Hickman, Taylor and Everett are back, Oklahoma may have a tough time running the ball on Tennessee. The Vols have allowed virtually nothing in the run game through 3 weeks, although Oklahoma is — in theory — by far the most talented team they will have played so far this season. In addition to its No. 3-ranked success rate, Tennessee is in the 93rd percentile in rush defense explosiveness. Even if things break right for Oklahoma from an injury standpoint, Tennessee is an incredibly-tough matchup for the Sooners on the ground.

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Passing success rate

  • Tennessee passing offense success rate: 62.5% (3rd)
  • Oklahoma passing defense success rate: 39.2% (78th)

Nico Iamaleava is off to an remarkable start in his first season as Tennessee’s starting quarterback. A 62.5% passing success rate is elite, even if the defenses the Wolfpack have faced leave a little to be desired. However, he’s still a relatively young quarterback who could certainly be forced into making a mistake or 2 against a Brent Venables defense. Iamaleava threw 2 interceptions against Tony Gibson’s NC State defense — the Wolfpack just weren’t good enough to do anything with those turnovers.

The same may end up being true of Oklahoma, but the Sooners have proved to be excellent ball hawks so far this season. They’ve picked off 4 passes already, which has helped offset a pretty mediocre pass defense success rate. Breaking things down further, Oklahoma’s issues have come on 3rd down. Per GameOnPaper, Oklahoma’s defense is in the 86th percentile in early downs EPA and in the 19th percentile in late downs success rate. If you’re an Oklahoma fan, here’s some good news: OU’s average distance on 3rd downs is 8.27 yards, which is a very respectable number. It suggests that some positive regression should be coming OU’s way in that category.

  • Oklahoma passing offense success rate: 35.6% (108th)
  • Tennessee passing defense success rate: 39% (75th)

This is the area of Oklahoma’s offense that has garnered the most attention through 3 weeks. Like Iamaleava, OU quarterback Jackson Arnold is a former 5-star prospect from the class of 2023. Arnold is also in his first year as OU’s starter, but his transition hasn’t been quite as seamless. Whether that’s due to the aforementioned injury issues or some other factors, it’s not something that can be denied. Arnold is averaging just 5.6 yards per attempt — a dismal number at any level of football, let alone for an OU quarterback who has faced 3 suspect defenses to start the year. If Oklahoma is going to have any sort of success this season in the SEC, it will have to be more efficient in the pass game.

While Tennessee does have more talent than any defense Oklahoma has faced so far, the Vols haven’t exactly been a juggernaut in the secondary. A 39% pass defense success rate is nothing to write home about. However, this number may be due to Tennessee rotating its starters out of game early during its 3 blowouts. Cornerbacks Jermod McCoy and Jalen McMurray both have good coverage grades per Pro Football Focus. Rickey Gibson III has only been targeted twice all season. At safety, the only starter who has struggled is Andre Turrentine — but again, it’s in a very small sample of just 3 targets on the season. I’m not comfortable declaring this secondary a weakness based on what we’ve seen through 3 weeks, but it is largely untested entering this game against Oklahoma.

1 other key: If Tennessee takes away Deion Burks, can anyone else make plays?

Even if Oklahoma is able to block Tennessee at a high level on Saturday — a very big ‘if’ — there’s still the question of whether or not Oklahoma has enough playmakers for it to matter. Purdue transfer Deion Burks has been by far Oklahoma’s best receiver this season as he’s caught 21-of-26 targets and leads the team with 166 yards and 3 touchdowns. 

As with the offensive line, Oklahoma has battled injuries at receiver. Andrel Anthony has been coming along slowly as he makes his way back from an ACL injury. Nic Anderson hasn’t caught a pass yet this season but he could return this week. Brenen Thompson has been solid — but far from spectacular — in his opportunities so far this fall. Beyond that group, OU’s healthy wide receivers have been pretty underwhelming in 2024.

The Sooners do have some good options at tight end in Bauer Sharp and Jake Roberts, but neither are proven at this level yet. Whether it’s Anderson, a tight end or a true freshman like Zion Ragins, Oklahoma will need someone to make some big plays in the pass game against the Vols. If Tennessee can keep OU’s offense from making big plays, that will go a long way toward winning this game in convincing fashion.

Note: All advanced stats mentioned in this story exclude garbage-time plays and are derived from CollegeFootballData.com unless otherwise noted. Trends are via BetIQ.