Texas vs. Texas A&M preview: Betting trends, advanced stats analysis

Texas vs. Texas A&M headlines a rivalry-week slate that’s full of high stakes, College Football Playoff implications and more. 

This is the first meeting between these programs since A&M left the Big 12 more than a decade ago. It’s also arguably the most impactful matchup in this rivalry’s history, as the winner will advance to face Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.

Let’s breakdown some historical betting trends, advanced stats and some other useful info about these teams:

Texas vs. Texas A&M betting lines

Lines via DraftKings:

Spread: Texas -5 (-112) | Texas A&M +5 (-108)

Total: Over 48.5 (-112) | Under 48.5 (-108)

Betting trends to know for Texas

Texas is…

• 6-5 against the spread in 2024
• 2-5 against the spread in SEC play in 2024
• 6-7 against the spread as a road favorite in the Steve Sarkisian era

Betting trends to know for Texas A&M

Texas A&M is…

• 3-7 against the spread in 2024
• 3-4 against the spread in SEC play in 2024

Advanced Stats preview 

Success rate will be the most important stat referenced in this section. Whether or not a play is “successful” depends on the down and distance of a given play. Here’s a breakdown of how much yardage is necessary for a play to be deemed “successful” depending on the context:

• 1st down: Teams must gain at least 50% of required yardage

• 2nd down: Teams must gain at least 70% of required yardage

• 3rd or 4th down: Teams must gain 100% of required yardage

Defensively, numbers are presented as what the defense allowed the offense to achieve. So on defense, a 35% success rate is better than a 40% success rate.

Let’s dig into what success rate says about this matchup:

Rushing success rate

• Texas rushing offense success rate: 50.4%

• Texas A&M rushing defense success rate: 36.8%

The Texas rushing offense was a huge question mark coming into the season, but the Longhorns have managed to still be reasonably efficient on the ground. A success rate north of 50% confirms that. Quintrevion Wisner and Jaydon Blue have been consistently-good all season long, although Blue has battled bouts of ball security issues. If there’s a weakness in Texas’s run game, it’s been in creating chunk plays. The Longhorns rank 13th amongst SEC programs in rushing plays of 10+ yards on the season. 

Texas A&M’s rushing defense has been borderline elite this season. A success rate under 37% is a very strong performance, particularly for a team that’s already played 7 SEC games. However, the weakness here has been in limiting long runs. The Aggies have given up more 20+ yard runs than any other SEC team so far this season with 17. How that meshes with Texas’s struggles to create explosive runs will be a fascinating subplot in this game.

• Texas A&M rushing offense success rate: 46.7%

• Texas rushing defense success rate: 42.5%

Texas A&M’s rushing offense is probably the best part of its statistical profile. The Aggies have a very strong success rate coupled with good EPA-per-rush numbers as well. They rank 33rd nationally in that category, according to Game on Paper. Unfortunately, Texas A&M has dealt with a rash of injuries at the running back position this year, most recently losing leading-rusher Le’Veon Moss to a season-ending injury a few weeks ago. Amari Daniels is A&M’s lead back now and he’s done a good job out of the backfield. A&M also manages its lack of running back depth by using quarterback Marcel Reed in the run game frequently — he had a season-high 21 rushing attempts in the loss to Auburn on Saturday. 

Texas’s rush defense has the opposite problem of its rushing offense. The Longhorns have a relatively-mediocre rush defense success rate but they are incredible at limiting damage beyond the first level. Texas has permitted just 1 run of 20+ yards all season. It makes sense when you consider the Longhorns have excellent linebackers and safeties but had to replace a couple of NFL-caliber defensive tackles this season. You’re not going to beat Texas on the ground, but the Longhorns have struggled a bit in short-yardage situations compared to what you might expect. Per Radar360, Texas allows 3.3 yards per rush on 3rd and 2 or less. That ranks outside the top 50 nationally.

Passing success rate

• Texas passing offense success rate: 44%

• Texas A&M passing defense success rate: 35.2%

Between Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning, Texas has an excellent quarterback room on paper. The receivers are solid, too, with Isaiah Bond, Matthew Golden and others who could end up playing on Sundays in the near future. And yet Texas’s success rate is just over 44%, which is far from elite. Some of that is likely due to Ewers battling injuries, but it’s also just been a slightly-disappointing season for the UT passing attack. Ewers has eclipsed 8 yards per attempt in just 1 SEC game so far this season — and that’s against a relatively-easy strength-of-schedule by SEC standards. 

Texas A&M’s passing defense has been good this season, if not excellent at times. However, the Aggies have not been particularly good in this area lately. Just this past weekend, they gave up a season-worst 9.27 yards per attempt to Payton Thorne and Auburn. In A&M’s previous SEC game, it allowed South Carolina to over 9 yards per attempt as well. The Aggies seem to be regressing a bit after establishing their pass defense as strength early in the year. Texas is 2nd in the SEC in passer efficiency rating this season, so it will be interesting to see if the Aggies can hold up on the back end.

• Texas A&M passing offense success rate: 42.7%

• Texas passing defense success rate: 31%

Texas A&M’s passing attack has been a key weak point so far this year. The Aggies have gone back-and-forth between Conner Weigman and Marcel Reed, but seem to have settled on Reed for the home stretch of the 2024 campaign. Reed has certainly been more effective as a runner, but you could make the case he’s been a better passer, too. He’s put up much better EPA-per-drop back numbers, according to Game on Paper, and has a better individual success rate as a passer as well. Still, this is a weakness for the Aggies going into this week’s matchup against the Longhorns. However, it’s worth noting A&M has one of the lowest pass rates (41.7%) in the SEC and has still been pretty effective overall offensively this season (6.05 yards per play).

The Texas pass defense is the strength of this team. A 31% pass defense success rate is elite and the Longhorns don’t give up big plays, either. They’ve allowed more than 6.5 yards per attempt in just 1 game so far this season, and that came last weekend in a 31-14 win over Kentucky. Ironically, the Wildcats have one of the least-efficient passing offenses in the SEC. Even in that game, though Texas, allowed just over 8 yards per attempt, which is not bad at all if that’s the worst performance your secondary produces all season. 

1 other key: Will Texas find success through the air?

A big part of this question is how healthy is Quinn Ewers? He’s listed as probable on the SEC-mandated availability report as of Friday afternoon and is expected to play, but he hasn’t been 100% healthy in weeks if not months. It has shown up in his play as he’s averaging just 7.5 yards per attempt this season — a significant drop-off from the 8.8 he averaged last season. 

If Texas doesn’t move the ball through the air, the Longhorns could be in big trouble. Its running game has not consistently produced chunk plays this season and the Longhorns probably don’t want to be playing a tight, low-scoring affair with Texas A&M on the road — that’s the style of play that fits the Aggies’ strengths. Ewers has been very mistake prone this season — he owns a 3.8% turnover-worthy play rate according to Pro Football Focus, which is the worst mark of his career. It’s not difficult to imagine things getting out of hand quickly for Texas in a hostile environment if the explosive passing plays aren’t there to keep momentum on its side.

Note: All advanced stats mentioned in this story exclude garbage-time statistics and are derived from CollegeFootballData.com unless otherwise noted. Trends are via BetIQ. 

Spenser Davis

Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.