There's no way the 2021 season will yield major SEC coaching turnover ... right?
Let’s get this out of the way.
I wrote before the 2020 season that I thought SEC teams would avoid making major decisions on head coaches. There were so many moving pieces, and with finances up in the air because of a pandemic, there could’ve been some rare mercy for SEC head coaches.
Then, 4 SEC head coaches were fired, reminding everyone that if it doesn’t just mean more, it certainly means a lot. Two of those coaches agreed to receive an 8-figure buyout while another is in a legal battle to get his 8-figure buyout.
Just another year in the SEC, I suppose.
This might sound like a bit of a double down on a bad prediction, but whatever. Here goes nothing.
The 2021 season won’t yield major SEC coaching turnover.
(**ducks**)
How could I say that? Is that just a contrarian take meant to stir the masses? No, it’s actually not when you think about it.
While the SEC doesn’t follow conventional wisdom when it comes to things like “patience” or “fiscal responsibility,” it does only have so many teams. Dating to when Chad Morris was fired near the end of the 2019 season, we watched 8 (!) SEC programs fire head coaches (Arkansas, Auburn, MSU, Mizzou, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee and Vandy). Each of the last 2 years, 4 SEC coaches got canned at season’s end. That means in 2021, more than half the league (57%) will have coaches in Year 1 or Year 2.
Now, how many coaches were fired the offseason before that streak began? Zero. When the SEC began the 2019 season without a new head coach, it marked the first time that had happened since 2006. During that stretch, 37 SEC head coaches were fired (excluding interim head coaches). That’s an average of roughly 2.5 coaches per year who got fired.
If there’s an over/under if SEC coaches getting fired after the 2021 season, it’s certainly closer to 2.5 than 4. Why? Since 1990, Keith Gilbertson (Washington), Willie Taggart (FSU) and Morris were the only Power 5 head coaches who were fired for performance-based reasons before the conclusion of Year 2. Even though Joe Moorhead was fired at the end of Year 2, it’s still extremely rare for teams to punt on a head coach after 2 seasons. Just 9 times did that happen at Power 5 programs for performance-based reasons in the last 30 years.
Using that logic, 8 SEC coaches should (probably) be safe in 2021. That group of Year 1 or 2 SEC coaches doesn’t include Nick Saban, Jimbo Fisher, Mark Stoops and Ed Orgeron, all of whom had buyouts north of $23 million in 2020. The other 2 coaches? Dan Mullen and Kirby Smart, both of whom are the only SEC head coaches riding active streaks of 3 consecutive New Year’s 6 bowl berths.
That doesn’t exactly set up for an active offseason on the SEC coaching carousel.
Again, though. It’s the SEC. Like, the conference that just had a program fork over a $21.45 million buyout after a coach went 6-4. It’s the league with teams that agreed to pay more than $175 million in head coaching buyouts since the end of Saban’s first year in Tuscaloosa in 2007.
For all I know, we’ll watch 2 of those 8 coaches in Year 1 or 2 get fired and we’ll see 2 other SEC coaches get fired with buyouts the size of Malzahn’s.
It’s funny because it’s when the SEC doesn’t have a coaching change that the rest of college football should really be worried. The SEC’s quiet offseason before the start of the 2006 season was followed by the conference winning each of the next 7 national titles. The SEC’s quiet offseason before the start of the 2019 season already yielded 2 SEC national champs, and they were arguably 2 of the best teams in the sport’s history.
Does the SEC’s lack of coaching turnover heading into the 2019 season mean the conference is about to embark on another 2006-12 run of national titles? Not necessarily. But when even the SEC is content to stand pat, boy, look out.
I refuse to make the prediction that we’re in for a 2019 or 2006 repeat of zero SEC coaches getting fired, or that there won’t be any turnover. If I were a gambling man, I’d bet on at least 1 happening. The league is too competitive and the stakes are too high to assume everyone is safe for another year.
That could be anything. Maybe the Mullen-Scott Stricklin relationship totally sours, or perhaps Orgeron can’t bounce back in 2021 and Scott Woodward opts to make his first change since arriving in Baton Rouge. Crazier things have happened. Nobody would’ve assumed Jeremy Pruitt’s time would be up after Year 3 when that extension was announced the week of Tennessee’s 2020 opener. Until it was announced, it still seemed likely that Auburn would avoid paying the richest buyout in SEC history and not fire Malzahn.
These things happen in a hurry. They don’t always require an entire offseason of showing up on hot-seat lists. There might not be 1 coach who will earn a frequent spot on one of those annual preseason staples. Weird. Somebody might have to throw Malzahn or Muschamp on there for old times’ sake.
Eight new hires later, these would appear to be new times in the SEC. Dare I say, they might actually be here to stay for a bit.
Probably.
In the world we live in, losses by UF to Bama, UGA, and LSU might spell the end for Coach Mullen. Especially in light of all the drama surrounding him.
Coach O, because of the investigation taking place, probably needs to have a really good bounce back year. I hope it all works out for him.
Mullen = UF Head DQ (Drama Queen).
Mullen is probably going to lose those 3. If he wins one I would say it would be LSU, because of the new coaches needing to get settled in.
I think people are underestimating the talent UF has on their roster for 2021. They’ve lost a ton of production on the offense, but the QB has had years to study and brings a new dynamic, they still have receiving threats, and have gained some potentially lethal weapons in Gilbert and Bowman. The defense has the talent, but needs to drastically improve. I think this year is more about Grantham keeping his job than Mullen.
I would put Dan Mullen toward the top of the list.
Kirby will be back on top in the East and Mullen will continue to embarrass the Administration. How long will Florida put up with that?
The Gators sure finished the season like a lead balloon. Next year will be a pivotal year for Dan Mullen in the eyes of the Gator fans/donors/AD.
OK Nostradumba$$ of course you know it all
Well tinycojones, your dumba$$ answer offered no rebuttal.
Well Tide dumba$$ fan no need to waste time rebutting a delusional statement
I’d put Mullen at the mid of the list. TL;DR – overall solid performance, but the administration hates drama, but the latter is easier to solve than the former
Pros: 3x NYE6 bowls in three years, had a QB in the Heisman race that was a 2-star backup, won the East, obviously knows how to run an offense.
Cons: his attitude in 2020 was something that had even die-hard fans shaking their heads at times, dropped a season-end win because the team was vastly under-prepared, recruiting violations that, while L2, still upset everyone because UF likes to run clean
Most are willing to look past the last two losses (no shame in giving the eventual NCs a hard game and losing big when you were barely above the roster minimum). This isn’t a dig, but I seem to remember UGA having issues with being left out of the playoff a couple of years ago, then getting handed a loss in their bowl game. Not every year can be an up year. The attitude was by far the worst of it, but luckily that’s easy to solve. If he can clean up his act and put a solid SEC performance together, he’ll be fine.
Even if you told me Pruitt would win 3 games in 2020, I still would have guessed that he’d be given another year. In the heat of a season, patience and tolerance for losses dries up very quickly. Very few coaches are actually safe in a given year.
Even if you told me Mahlzan would win 6 games in 2020, I still would have guessed that he’d be given another year…
Yeah I would have thought the same thing too
Just imagine if we played the non conference games. That probably put us to 6 wins. I don’t think there would have been as much heat. Especially not enough to fire him.
I totally agree
Agreed, but UT benefitted from that. I think the all SEC schedule showed administrations the truth of their athletic departments. Teams like UGA, UF, and A&M saw coaches put together good seasons in the face of drama, while AUB and UT crumbled time and again.
I will agree, that from the current perspective, only Mullen & Orgeron appear to be anywhere in proximity to any hot seat. Mullen handed Orgeron some gravitas, with the LSU upset of UF at season end. So as long as LSU does a little better than last year, Coach O should be safe. And Mullen is in the position to completely control his own destiny. Looking at next year’s schedule, 9 & 3, or better, should be easily doable for UF. If that happens, & Mullen can hold his lunacy in check, & not repeatedly embarrass the university, like last year, there is no reason that he should be let go.
Agreed here. 9/3 or 10/2 is a fine season after losing big chunks of your offense. I still like UF over LSU next year, but think UGA and Bama will be the monsters. Mullen needs to straighten up and act like a CEO as well as an HC. I don’t have issues with preseason trash talk (passion is why I love CFB way more than NFL) or costumes during a Halloween post-game. I have a ton of issues with the attitude and antics.
For O, I think a lot of it comes down to the investigation. If it isn’t as bad as some are reporting, a good 2021 keeps him safe. The worse that investigation goes, the better a 2021 season he’ll need.
If any of the mentioned coaches are dumb enough to call a 4 loss season “Solid”…all bets are off.
I have to admit that I initially thought calling a 6 & 4 schedule solid was a stupid thing for a head coach to say. In hindsight, it turned out to be worth $21million. Maybe Malzahn had had enough & was playing 5D chess with the boosters & administration, & they did not know.
I think you’re partially correct. The Alumni and Boosters were never fully behind him. After he got his big contract, he went on cruise control. Apparently, he didn’t care if he got canned or not.
That is why Auburn shouldn’t have given him that big contract! Malzahn out smart Auburn this time.
This. Mahlzan knew he’d not be able to get the boosters behind him, so one he had that very nice money guaranteed, he just went through the motions. Now he can take his time finding an ideal situation for himself, or hell, if he never coached again, he’s set.
I am going to miss Gus coaching Auburn. I loved his “We beat the dog poo out of them” comment from a few years ago.
Of course I also thought Kirby’s response of “They earned the right to say that” was spot on too.
LOL yeah that was a mistake.
Sideshow Dan the Clown is the most likely on the list to get canned simply because he’s the most likely on the list to do and or say something so profoundly stupid or offensive, that when combined with a likely 8-4 season, means Floriduh just doesn’t want to sanction his buffoonery any longer.
Florida going 8-4 would be a major dissappointment with the schedule they have. It is not the best thing in the world but its not that bad. I’d say maybe 10-2 with either a win over LSU or UGA and losses to Bama and one of LSU/UGA. That would require them losing all their big games and losing to Kentucky/Mizzou/UT/SC/FSU, which I simply don’t see happening
The idea that they’re beating us this year is laughable. But sure.
Loss to Bama. Loss to us. Loss to LSshoe. And I feel safe saying there’s going to be another regular season loss in there between UK, Mizzou, and FSU.
8-4.
Thanks for another worthless prediction you all knowing original Nostradumba$$ of the red & black. Your predictions are as accurate as your chosen name
Mullen needs to stay away from a Jim McElwain impersonation.
Clowning around raises some eyebrows but he’s got to keep his comments in-bounds.
I remember mcelwain interview where he was barefoot. Is that reason Mullet always hypes his brand new shoes?
Trash talk and costumes is fine in context. Passion and fun is the main reason CFB is the superior league than then NFL IMO. But his Jim M antics throughout last season were not acceptable. Clean it up.
Losses to Clemson and UF + 1 Major Upset, Put Kirby Vacuum Smartass in The Toaster !…..Bye Bye !
UF would be a major upset.
Hot seat? Definitely. Fired? Unlikely.
Wrong.
Jobigator88.
Mullen couldn’t get it done even when everything fell into place.
He won’t get it done this year. Florida will lose to Georgia and Alabama. LSU will be a toss-up at best. Jones will likely cost them at least one that they should win.
Georgia may lose to Clemson, I say it’s 50/50, but they won’t lose to any other team on the schedule.
Even in a year where Mullen had every possible advantage, Kirby still finished the year with the higher ranked team.
Mullen will be a distant memory within a few short years. Kirby will still be at Georgia for many years to come.
This is kind of a no brainer. Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Florida, Kentucky and A&M are certainly NOT going to replace their HCs. If you had to pick a coach to be fired, I guess you might say Orgeron if they have an overwhelmingly bad year. Not a 9-3 or even 8-4. Probably not 7-5 but get a warning. So that leaves the eight, “8” schools that have replaced their HCs at the beginning of the 2020 season or at the end. None of those obviously will be fired..unless one gets caught calling hookers on a school phone OR taking their hooker/mistress for a ride on their Harley. Those two incidents might have even been written into succeeding HC contracts…just so everyone knows its not allowed.
Missouri? LOL No way he goes backwards this fall! I would say Kentucky will be the one to watch for. I expect Missouri to go 8-4 or 9-3. How can that not be hard with that easier schedule than the one from last year?
All year 1 and 2 head coaches are unfireable unless a massive investigation happens. Saban, Fisher, Smart, and Stoops (the latter is extremely underrated and KY shouldn’t let him leave unless they fall off big time) are all safe. Coach O I could see get the boot if we have another near .500 year or something like 7-5 and we’re uncompetitive. Maybe if the investigation is as bad as feared (I hope not) he could go as well. Mullen it would seem unlikely but he says things that puts his university in a bad light and his university might get tired of it.
I think you’re right that the investigation could do O in. Otherwise the D is going to determine a lot. 7-5 with a still dysfunctional defense might get O shown the door.
No way O is fired other than off field issues. He is consistently in the top 5 in recruiting and was on an upward trajectory until last year when everything that could go wrong did. He makes coaching changes when needed unlike Miles. Besides LSU doesn’t have the money for a buyout.
I would rate Coach O as number 1 and Mullen as #2 going into 2021. Both have a decent shot at getting shown the door because of off field issues. Kirby will hold steady as long as he continues to out-recruit everyone except Saban. I wouldnt be surprised if Kiffin leaves Ole Miss after next season if he can get the Rebs to 8-9 wins. Someone with a better chance of winning titles may steal him with a big checkbook.
Interesting take on Kiffin. I don’t know, I was thinking he would stay at Ole Miss unless USC calls again. I think the state of where Ole Miss was gives him freedom to kind of be himself, without the scrutiny that he would have at a blueblood.
If Harbaugh is ousted at Michigan, then maybe he’d go there or the NFL.
Lane Kiffin at Michigan…get real. He does not fit in that buttoned-down Big Blue world. He’s perfect at Ole Miss & he knows it.
You can state your opinion with out being condescending. Your opinion is about as useful as mine.
Enjoy your day.
Kiffin at Michigan would be at least as weird a fit as Leach and Miss State. Probably more so.
No. He’ll leave if the grass is greener based on past history, IMO.
I really didn’t want to comment on anything Florida, but can’t avoid it.
I don’t think Mullen will get fired, I think he’s the most likely to not be there after this season, but I look at Coach O as the most likely to get /fired/.
Saban has done well at Bama, but if they don’t get back to the National Championship game this year, he’ll be in trouble.
Said no one in the history of mankind.
A couple of things about Mullen. 1) If his personality were his feet he would have bruises all over his face from falling constantly. He truly gets in his own way. Just accept he is worthy of acceptance and try to prove it with each sentence. 2) He is smart. And I think his trigger to leave is more about how unpleasant he feels at UF rather than how ‘good’ a job he is offered. His hand got slapped when he played the adolescent threat to leave for the nfl. Not good. 3) He truly is the Portal Master so his average recruiting isn’t bad considering who he has to compete with. 4) If he doesn’t make a NY’s bowl I think he tries to leave
Not try to prove it every sentence*
Honestly, as much as I don’t want to admit it, I think the NFL is a better job for Mullen. He’s a great X’s and O’s coach, and knows his way around an offense, but he doesn’t really care for recruiting, and doesn’t like the CEO role that HCs take in CFB.
I don’t think Mullen is the best coach in college, but he’s one of the better, and with so much recent coaching turnover for UF, I’m not sure there’s anyone else out there who can do better than him that UF could afford while paying 3x buyouts. Right now, good-to-great seasons with stability is what the UF brand needs. If Mullen keeps the ship upright and leaves for the NFL in a couple of seasons, we’ll be fine in the search.
Wasn’t that the same thing said about the 2020 season. No firings because COVID would have too much of an impact on the season.
Yes, first paragraph.
“I wrote before the 2020 season that I thought SEC teams would avoid making major decisions on head coaches. There were so many moving pieces, and with finances up in the air because of a pandemic, there could’ve been some rare mercy for SEC head coaches.”
Mullen if he can’t get his behavior/mouth under control. Ogeron if the NCAA comes calling with bad news/sanctions and marginal season. Everyone else barring some out of the blue incident is safe.
Heupel? If he goes 2-10or 3-7? LOL
Whoever Vandy has as coach is safe. They don’t have team. Coach O is my guess because of rape culture being covered up. Mullet will be next because he’s just an idiot.
I don’t think Spence will be fired if he collect a few tokens
Crap let me get on that ledge and do like chicken little.
Here I was all excited about what Mullen was going to do with Emory and the new offense. It turns out that Mullen is apparently a clown who doesn’t know what he’s doing and is about to get fired and our QB can’t throw worth a lick so for sure we are going to lose all our tough games and then some, even to FSU.
Too bad I don’t have the knowledge and understanding of all these experts that post here. WTF was Arik Gilbert thinking he should have gone to Georgia obviously
As a Gator fan you have a right and duty to defend Mullen. Everyone understands.
Mullen receives much greater grief on forums because of his attitude. If he was the traditional coach speak type of leader, he’d be fine. He’s had good and great seasons at UF, and posted the best three-year record of any UF coach (more wins in first 38 games and 3x NYE6 bowls in 3x years). But he turns a lot of people against him with his childish takes.
I do think people are exaggerating the drop off UF will have in 2021. They’re replacing a lot of production in the receiving core, but there are players still around (Copeland, Henderson, Whittemore, and now Gilbert). The backfield should be just as good, if not better. The defense is a big question mark, but the talent is there. I think 9-3 is a safe prediction, 10-2 is well within reach.
Mullen leaves for the NFL. Kiffen leaves OM for UF. Drink goes 9-3 and gets a shot somewhere else for big money. LSU tanks again and O is gone. Maybe Drink goes there.
That’s 4 potential teams right there who could be looking for a new hc at the end of 2021.
A few of these are fairly realistic.
Mullen still hasn’t been extended, and while he’s a great X’s and O’s coach and an offensive mind, he doesn’t like recruiting or CEO duties.
Coach O is on a scale depending on how bad the NCAA hammer is. The less the charges, the more leeway he has with ’21. If it’s bad, he’ll need a fantastic season. If it’s horrible, he gets canned for Cause.
I don’t know that I see Kiffin leaving Ole Miss too early. If he has an absolutely stellar season in ’21, it raises his chances, but I think he tries to wait it out for a “premiere” role like Bama or Clemson, so he sticks it out until he proves his worth and someone on top of the hill leaves.
I could see Drink going after ’22, but similar to Kiffin, he’d need a killer ’21 to get the elevator out.
All I’ll say is it would be nice to see players commit to a school they like rather than to coaches. Won’t happen, but it’s a nice thought.
Very true
Saban: Not a chance in hell
Smart: Almost no chance, but could be fired if he does horrible
Mullen: maybe, but not really likely unless he does horrible
Orgeron: on the edge of the hot seat if LSU continues to be mediocre and exposed in scandal(s)
Fisher: I dont think he’s anywhere near the hot seat after A&Ms best season in decades
Stoops: fans love him, administration seems happy with what hes done, so no
Pittman: I dont think so, he is trying to establish a culture
Kiffin: has a higher chance of spurning them for USC than getting fired
Leach: it takes a while to build his system, so no
Drinkwitz: finished with best record of all 1st year SEC coaches, doubt he gets fired after 2 years
Heupel: 1st year coach, no
Lea: 1st year coach, no
Beamer, 1st year coach, no
Harsin, 1st year coach, no