What’s Vegas thinking?

I know. Vegas always gets right and nobody knows how they do it. That isn’t exactly true. Last week, for instance, Vegas whiffed on both the college and NFL games and took a historical beating. This week could be much of the same for our friends. Some of the lines this week have me scratching my head. Let’s take a look at a few:

Mississippi State vs Alabama

Alabama is favored by 8.5 points in this matchup of No. 1 vs. No. 5. This seems a bit much. When was the last time the No. 5 was favored by so much over the nation’s top ranked team? Maybe never. Perhaps Vegas is still hung over from last weekend. Who knows? The numbers, however, don’t lie. The vaunted Bama rushing attack is only ranked 36th in the overall FBS rankings, while MSU’s rush attack is 16th. Bama scores a ton right? Not so fast, and not as much as MSU. Bama is ranked 34th in the country for points scored, but MSU ranks 12th in the same category. Bama does hold a significant edge on defense in terms of points scored against them, as they sit at #2 while MSU sit at #16.

In like opponent matchups, they both squeaked by Arkansas, and both torched Texas A&M and beat LSU.

All in all, it shapes up to be a great game. Bama always struggles against physical teams that run the spread, and nobody in the country runs it better than Dak Prescott. I know the game is on Alabama’s home turf, but an 8.5 point spread still has me saying Vegas what are you thinking!

Mississippi State in a close one 24-20. Yeah, I’m calling the upset.

Florida State vs Miami

This might be the biggest head scratcher of the week. FSU is favored by 1.5 over a Miami team that lost to Louisville, Nebraska and Georgia Tech. Maybe Vegas is just sick of FSU blowing the spread. FSU is 2-7 against the spread this year, and the Seminoles have been anything but consistent this year, yet they are still undefeated and ranked No. 3 in the nation.

FSU’s numbers aren’t that impressive either: 10th in passing yards, 104th in rush yards, 16th points scored and 33rd points against.

Miami’s numbers aren’t all that impressive either. They rank 61st in passing yards, 39th in rush yards, 45th in points scored and 26th points against.

I expect this game to be a high scoring affair, as neither team likes to play much defense. Couple the lack of defense with FSU’s explosive passing attack, and that 1.5 point spread leaves me saying Vegas what are you thinking!