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Washington vs. Michigan: Betting trends, advanced stats analysis

Spenser Davis

By Spenser Davis

Published:

Washington will face Michigan in the national championship game on Monday night. 

This is the first time either program will ever appear in an official national championship game, as neither have made it to the sport’s pinnacle since the BCS era began in 1998. This game marks a massive opportunity for both programs to win their 1st national championship since the 1990’s (1997 for Michigan and 1991 for Washington).

Examining the statistical profiles for both teams, this is a matchup between one of the most dominant and well-balanced teams in the country (Michigan) and a team could be too overly-reliant on its passing game (Washington). The Huskies’ passing attack gives them plenty of upside to conceivably win this game, but they also have clear weaknesses that Michigan could exploit in the title game.

Let’s examine some betting trends, advanced stats and other useful info about these teams:

Washington vs. Michigan Betting Lines

Spread: 5 (DraftKings)

Total: 55.5 (DraftKings)

Check out these excellent sports betting apps to get in on the action ahead of Monday’s big national championship game.

Betting trends to know for Washington

  • Washington is 7-6-1 against the spread this season
  • The over is 7-7 in Washington games this season
  • Washington is 3-0 against the spread as an underdog this season

Washington is once again an underdog — a familiar place for the Huskies over the past few games. They’ve been underdogs in 3 of their past 4 contests and have won them all outright. Even more impressively, Washington has beaten the number by more than 8 points per game on average in this spot.

Betting trends to know for Michigan

  • Michigan is 8-5 against the spread this season
  • The over is 7-5-1 in Michigan games this season
  • Michigan has been favored in all 14 games so far this season
  • Michigan is 3-0 against the spread this year when favored by under a touchdown

Michigan has been very profitable as a (relatively) short favorite this season. The Wolverines were favored by under a touchdown against Penn State, Ohio State and Alabama. None of those games were blowouts — Michigan covered the spread by a total of 13 points in those games.

Résumé rankings

Via ESPN’s Football Power Index

  • Washington strength of schedule: 2nd
  • Michigan strength of schedule 18th

 

  • Washington strength of record: 1st
  • Michigan strength of record: 2nd

Advanced Stats preview 

Success rate will be the primary tool referenced in this section. Whether or not a play is “successful” depends on the down and distance of a given play. Here’s a breakdown of how much yardage is necessary for a play to be deemed “successful”:

  • 1st down: Teams must gain at least 50% of required yardage
  • 2nd down: Teams must gain at least 70% of required yardage
  • 3rd or 4th down: Teams must gain 100% of required yardage

Defensively, numbers are presented as what the defense allowed the offense to achieve. So on defense, a 35% success rate is better than a 40% success rate.

Let’s dig into what success rate says about this matchup:

Rushing Success Rate

  • Washington rushing offense success rate: 53% (97th percentile)
  • Michigan rushing defense success rate: 34% (95th percentile)

The health of Washington running back Dillon Johnson will be a major subplot for this matchup. Johnson was carted off the field after suffering an injury on the Huskies’ final offensive play of the game against Texas last week. The word out of Washington has been that it expects Johnson to play against Michigan, but it’s unclear if he will be 100%. If Johnson isn’t himself, it could pose a major challenge for Washington’s running game. He’s the only Washington running back who has more than 200 rushing yards this season.

Whether it’s Johnson getting the lion’s share of the carries or someone else, Washington will have its hands full with Michigan’s rush defense. The Wolverines have been as good as anyone in the country against the run this season. Last week, Michigan held Alabama to 4 yards per carry in the Rose Bowl (which was slightly-below the Tide’s season-long average of 4.3 yards per attempt).

  • Michigan rushing offense success rate: 45% (67th percentile)
  • Washington rushing defense success rate: 52% (3rd percentile)

It’s impossible to understate how much trouble Washington is in with regards to its rushing defense. Ahead of its semifinal against Texas, I pointed out that Washington’s rushing defense success rate was in the 9th percentile nationally. The Huskies were so bad against the Longhorns that they drop all the way to the 3rd percentile for this game. How? Texas’ rushing success rate in the Sugar Bowl was a whopping 72%.

So how did Washington win anyways? The Longhorns didn’t run the ball nearly enough. They ran it 50% of the time in the 1st half and just 39.4% for the full game (Texas was playing catch-up late, but still). Michigan will not let Washington off the hook that easily. We’re talking about a Wolverines offense that runs the ball over 58% of the time. Michigan also has a tendency to lean on its running game even more in big spots. In its 4 biggest games of the year (Penn State, Ohio State, Iowa and Alabama), Michigan chose to run the ball 63.6% of the time. Washington is exposed here and Michigan is in prime position to take advantage of it.

As an aside, DraftKings‘ passing yardage prop for JJ McCarthy is at of 197.5 yards as of publication. I like the under quite a bit there, as I’d be surprised if he gets enough attempts to approach 200 yards. He got to 227 yards against Alabama in 27 attempts in the Rose Bowl, but 68 of those yards came on Michigan’s final drive in regulation. Alabama game aside, the last time Michigan threw for 200+ yards in a game was against Purdue on Nov. 4. Against Washington, I’m expecting Michigan to run the ball as much as it can — and then run it some more.

Passing Success Rate

  • Washington passing offense success rate: 53% (97th percentile)
  • Michigan passing defense success rate: 32% (99th percentile)

Washington’s super power is its passing game. More specifically, it’s Michael Penix Jr. and the Huskies’ trio of incredible wide receivers. Against Texas, Washington receivers Rome Odunze, Ja’lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan combined to make 16 catches for 305 yards and 2 touchdowns. Here comes the pivotal question for the Huskies in this game: Can they do it again vs. Michigan?

There’s a lot of reason to believe they can’t. Michigan has been as good as anyone against the pass this season and is coming off of a dominant performance in the Rose Bowl against Alabama. The Wolverines were especially effective up front as they sacked Jalen Milroe 5 times in the 1st half alone. Michigan forced Milroe into his worst performance of the year and could conceivably do the same to Penix on Monday night.

If you’re skeptical about Michigan’s numbers in this matchup because of the passing offenses it has faced this year, I wouldn’t blame you. Before the Rose Bowl, Michigan had faced just 1 offense all season that ranked in the top-40 nationally in passer efficiency rating. I buy the Wolverines’ pass defense a little more after seeing how they dominated Alabama in the semifinals, but Washington will certainly be the best passing attack Michigan has faced all season.

  • Michigan passing offense success rate: 54% (99th percentile)
  • Washington pass defense success rate: 40% (68th percentile)

Because of Michigan’s reliance on the run game — and Washington’s inability to stop the run — I’m not sure how much this matchup will come into play. However, if it does, it figures to favor Michigan. JJ McCarthy had an up-and-down game in the Rose Bowl, but was excellent when the Wolverines needed a game-tying touchdown drive at the end of regulation. Michigan’s passing game has been efficient when called upon all season long. I expect that will continue vs. the Huskies if necessary. 

Havoc rate

A havoc play is defined as a play where the defense records a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass breakup.

For defenses, a higher havoc rate is good. Offensively, havoc rates are presented as what the offense allowed the defense to create. On that side of the ball, the lower the havoc rate, the better it is for your offense.

Here’s a breakdown of this matchup:

  • Washington offensive havoc rate: 12% (95th percentile)
  • Michigan defensive havoc rate: 22% (96th percentile)

Washington has avoided havoc plays all season, but it hasn’t faced a defensive front like Michigan’s to this point in the year. The Wolverines were dominant in this area last week vs. Alabama, especially with their pass rush. If Michigan can push Alabama around up front, I have a hard time believing Washington will be able to keep the Wolverines out of its backfield consistently. 

  • Michigan offensive havoc rate: 11% (97th percentile)
  • Washington defensive havoc rate: 16% (40th percentile)

Michigan has done a great job of limiting its mistakes offensively this season. Washington hasn’t created a ton of havoc defensively this season, except for in one key area: interceptions. The Huskies have 16 picks this season, which leads the Pac-12. Washington is also due for some fumble luck regression as it has recovered just 4-of-14 opponent fumbles this season.

Points per opportunity

A scoring “opportunity” is defined as a possession in which the offense has moved the ball beyond the opponents’ 40-yard line. This stat measures how effective a team is at cashing on its scoring chances — or preventing them from their opponents.

  • Washington points scored per opportunity: 4.68 (89th percentile)
  • Michigan points allowed per opportunity: 2.6 (99th percentile)

Michigan has been comically good at preventing points from scoring opportunities this season. The Wolverines have allowed a completion percentage of just 38% in the red zone this year. When teams run the ball against Michigan in the red zone, they average just 2.4 yards per carry.

However, Washington has been excellent at converting its chances this season. Washington collectively has a passer efficiency rating of 184.18 in the red zone this season. Overall, Washington has 48 red zone touchdowns this season, which is tied for 6th nationally.

  • Michigan points scored per opportunity: 4.81 (93rd percentile)
  • Washington points allowed per opportunity: 4.03 (36th percentile)

This is a clear advantage for Michigan. The Wolverines have one of the most efficient offenses in the country once it gets into a scoring opportunity. Washington, on the other hand, has not been good at preventing points in these situations.  The Huskies are amongst 3 Pac-12 teams who conceded touchdowns on at least 70% of its defensive red zone possessions this year, with Stanford and Cal being the others. Washington faced 6 red zone possessions from Texas in the Sugar Bowl. The Longhorns scored 4 touchdowns, kicked 1 field goal and turned it over on downs on the final play of the game. 

Tracking efficiency 

ESPN FPI

  • Washington offense: 5th
  • Washington defense: 30th
  • Washington special teams: 23rd 

 

  • Michigan offense: 3rd
  • Michigan defense: 1st
  • Michigan special teams: 50th

ESPN SP+ 

  • Washington offense: 4th
  • Washington defense: 44th
  • Washington special teams: 47th 

 

  • Michigan offense: 12th
  • Michigan defense: 1st
  • Michigan special teams: 7th 

Note: All advanced stats mentioned in this story are from CollegeFootballData.com unless otherwise noted. Betting trends are via the Sports Betting Dime database. 

Spenser Davis

Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.

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