How has Week 1 treated the SEC East in past 5 years?
If those who don’t remember the past are doomed to repeat it, then SEC fans better remember their teams’ recent Week 1 performances — or they just might see them play out again. With that possibility in mind, let’s see how the opening week of college football has treated the East’s squads over the past five seasons.
Florida
Past 5 years: 4-0 (one cancellation), favored by 23+ points in all four wins
Skinny: Suffice it to say that opening 2016 with a big cupcake in UMass is not out of sync with the Gators’ recent playbook. In the past five years, Florida has opened with hope dates against Florida Atlantic, Bowling Green State, Toledo, Idaho and New Mexico State.
The Idaho game was canceled due to weather, and the other four, as expected, were comfortable wins, although often underwhelming performances.
Twice Florida covered big point spreads (beating Florida Atlantic by 38 or New Mexico State by 48) and twice they didn’t (beating Bowling Green by 13 or Toledo by 18). So if the past tells us anything, this game will be a win, but may not be a brilliant performance.
Georgia
Past 5 years: 3-2
Skinny: The Bulldogs played ranked foes in three of those years, and lost to No. 5 Boise State in 2011 and No. 8 Clemson in 2013. They did beat No. 16 Clemson to open 2014, and took care of business against Buffalo in 2012 and Louisiana-Monroe in 2015.
North Carolina, ranked No. 22, is a bit easier than normal for a Bulldogs opener. The last time UGA was favored by around a touchdown in an opener was that 2014 game, when they demolished Clemson 45-21. Could be a good omen.
Kentucky
Past 5 years: 3-2
Skinny: Kentucky has underperformed in recent openers, losing as a favorite to Western Kentucky to open 2013, and stumbling past Louisiana Lafayette by a score in 2015.
This doesn’t include an 18-point beating by Louisville to open 2012. UK has covered the spread only once in the past five openers — in a 59-14 beatdown of UT-Martin in 2014.
This year, Kentucky is favored by roughly a touchdown over Southern Miss, which is most similar to that 2013 loss to WKU. Mark Stoops is certainly hoping to avoid a repeat of that performance.
Missouri
Past 5 years: 5-0, favored by 20+ points in all five wins
Skinny: Mizzou has opened with dessert in Week 1. They’ve handled Miami of Ohio, Southeast Louisiana, Murray State, South Dakota State and Southeast Missouri State in this span, with the Miami game being the closest at 17-6.
The Tigers covered the point spread only twice. This year, a game at West Virginia is an entirely different kettle of fish. Coach Barry Odom is trying to put his own brand on the program, and he hopes to avoid a week one loss on the road.
South Carolina
Past 5 years: 4-1
Skinny: The Gamecocks played Vanderbilt in 2012 to open the season (and won 17-13), and most years play a competitive opening opponent. They were blasted by Texas A&M, 52-28, to open 2014, but otherwise held their own, beating Vandy, winning two games with North Carolina and holding off East Carolina in a 56-37 shootout.
South Carolina covered the point spread twice, and will be a slight underdog at Vandy on Thursday night. Will Muschamp hopes to continue Carolina’s solid play in close recent Week 1 matchups.
Tennessee
Past 5 years: 5-0
Skinny: It’s been an odd mix for UT. Three times they played inferior opponents (Montana in 2011, Austin Peay in 2013, and Bowling Green in 2015) and twice they played legitimate foes (N.C. State in 2012 and Utah State in 2014).
But the Vols won all five games, covered the spread three times and just missed covering it all five times.
The Vols are a three-touchdown favorite against Appalachian State on Thursday night, and signs point to them being ready, if recent form holds.
Vanderbilt
Past 5 years: 1-4
Skinny: The most recent season-opening win for Vandy was in 2011 against Elon College, in James Franklin’s first game.
The Dores suffered tough home loses to South Carolina in 2012 and Ole Miss in 2013, were blasted by Temple in 2014 in Derek Mason’s first game, and lost a 14-12 heartbreaker last year to Western Kentucky.
Vandy has covered the spread in three of the five recent openers, however, and in the games with relatively close spreads, has been very competitive. Signs point to another close game with South Carolina on Thursday to open the season.