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What is your team’s win probability for the opening weekend of the 2016 season? Below is a list of every SEC team’s win probability for Week 1, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.
Keep in mind, FPI only gave South Carolina a 38.8 percent shot to take down Vanderbilt on the road. It also gave Tennessee a 95.1 percent shot to beat Appalachian State.
- Alabama (64.3 percent): The Tide’s win probability may seem low considering all the talent it has. However, on paper, USC can match Alabama in terms of raw talent in several position groups. The battles on the perimeter on both sides of the ball should be the highlight of this game as both teams have a number of elite athletes to rotate in and out. Redshirt junior quarterback Max Browne may not have ever made a start for the Trojans, but he’s poised to settle into a smooth transition sitting behind Cody Kessler the last two seasons. The biggest mismatch of the game will be Alabama’s front seven and USC’s offensive line, which will ultimately bury the Trojans’ hopes of an upset.
- Arkansas (93 percent): Despite winning 18 games over the last two seasons, Louisiana Tech is being given little chance to spring the upset in this one. The fact the Razorbacks are being given so much respect despite working in a new quarterback, new running backs and a completely revamped offense line goes to show the increase in talent on the roster in Bret Bielema’s fourth season in Fayetteville. Expect points to come at a premium for the Bulldogs in this matchup as Deatrich Wise and company should have a field day in this one.
- Auburn (30 percent): As if entering the season on shaky ground wasn’t bad enough, Gus Malzahn and company have to figure out how to put a halt to one of college football’s greatest offenses led by Deshaun Watson. Auburn can take solace knowing its roster is just as talented as Clemson’s, but on the flip side, that same talent stumbled out of the gate in 2015 and never recovered. Of course, earning a statement victory with everyone outside of The Plains picking against them would be the most typical Auburn thing ever. If the defensive line can create havoc up front and the crowd gets into the game early, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Auburn springs the upset.
- Florida (98.6 percent): Considering the incredibly high likelihood of victory, it would be easy to see this game being the most winnable on the schedule (according to ESPN’s FPI), but it’s not even in the top two! North Texas (99.1) and Presbyterian College (99.7) both figure to be easier games for the Gators this season. Even with Florida being down five players to suspension for the season opener, including a Preseason All-American, the team shouldn’t miss a beat this weekend.
- Georgia (59.1 percent): Regardless of which quarterback is under center for the Dawgs against the Tar Heels, look for Georgia to pound the rock repeatedly until North Carolina proves it can stop it. After finishing the season ranked No. 121 in the nation in defending the run, if UNC fails to drastically improve in that area immediately, it could make for a long day in the Georgia Dome for the defending Coastal Division champions. The wildcat in this game will be UNC’s first-year starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky. The junior signal-caller has earned rave reviews this offseason after performing well in limited action last season.
- Kentucky (79.6 percent): The Southern Miss defense will likely have its hands full in this game as the Wildcats return a bevy of talent at receiver, running back and the offensive line to go along with promising redshirt sophomore quarterback Drew Barker. While Mark Stoops’ overall record at Kentucky is ugly (12-24), he has a winning record over the first half of the schedule (10-8). Look for that trend to continue this weekend.
- LSU (86.4 percent): If this seems a little high, you might be right. The Bayou Bengals are practically playing a road game against a tough Power 5 opponent at Lambeau Field. It’s interesting that LSU’s chances are only about two percentage points less than its 88.6 percent shot of beating Mississippi State — at home — in Week 3. That probably has something to do with LSU being ranked No. 2 overall by FPI entering this season, second only to Florida State.
- Mississippi (29.5 percent): Playing essentially a road game in Orlando, the Rebels start the season against the team many are predicting to win the national title this season. Ole Miss certainly doesn’t mind playing as an underdog as head coach Hugh Freeze and his team love to play spoiler. In fact, Ole Miss has won outright in seven of the last nine games they entered as the underdog. The biggest question mark for the Rebels in this game should be the offensive line as the unit lost all five starters from last season’s dominating Sugar Bowl win. However, three of the five starters from last season’s upset of Alabama will be available to play against the Seminoles along with others, so the position group does not lack experience.
- Mississippi State (97.7 percent): Dan Mullen has a ridiculous 29-5 nonconference record in Starkville that will improve a notch on Saturday. While the game against South Alabama projects as a laugher, it will be an important game for both sides of the ball as the quarterback position has yet to play itself out, and the defense underwent a massive overhaul this offseason. Getting everyone on the same page prior to the SEC opener against South Carolina next week should be job No. 1 for the Bulldogs this weekend.
- Missouri (19.2 percent): Barry Odom’s squad has the lowest probability in the SEC to exit Week 1 with a win as the Tigers travel to Morgantown to take on West Virginia, but one thing that always travels is a great defense. If new offensive coordinator Josh Heupel can turn around the offense immediately, with the help of transfers of former Oklahoma running back Alex Ross and Alabama receiver Chris Black, the Tigers stand a chance of springing the upset. Entering his sixth season at Morgantown, the pressure to win should be all on West Virginia head coach Dana Holgorsen in this game.
- Texas A&M (60.6 percent): The Aggies face the challenge of facing perhaps the most pro-ready quarterback in the college game in sophomore Josh Rosen. While the Texas heat may get to the Bruins, Jim Mora actually has a better road record at UCLA than home record. Meanwhile, Kevin Sumlin’s home record is less than stellar against Power 5 opponents. Texas A&M was fortunate to land starting quarterback Trevor Knight via the graduate transfer rule, but consistency plagued his Oklahoma career and could cost A&M this game if he can’t complete over 57 percent of his passes (his career average heading into the season). If Knight can accurately deliver the ball to the Aggies’ dangerous receivers, they should start the season with a victory.
A graduate of the University of Tennessee, Michael Wayne Bratton oversees the news coverage for Saturday Down South. Michael previously worked for FOX Sports and NFL.com