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SEC Football

Ranking SEC teams ATS: Texas A&M flounders, Arkansas performing in Vegas

Christopher Smith

By Christopher Smith

Published:

Editor’s Note: We will track various gambling statistics related to SEC teams throughout the season and update them every week.

After leading the SEC in combined +/- ATS through several weeks of the season, Texas A&M is threatening to finish the year last in the SEC. The Aggies came up 28 p0ints short of covering the 33-point spread against Louisiana-Monroe last week and now have lost five consecutive games ATS.

South Carolina is offering some strong competition as the poorest-performing SEC team in Vegas in 2014, as the Gamecocks slid to a -59 +/- and a 2-7 record ATS. Vanderbilt, which is 5-1 ATS in the last six outings, got out of the basement, but still is -49 overall against the Vegas line.

Ole Miss, which went seven games without an ATS loss, has dropped two consecutive games SU as favorites, slipping into a tie for first with Arkansas at +78 overall. The Razorbacks have benefited from ATS wins against Texas A&M, Alabama and Mississippi State in close losses as well as huge games against Nicholls State, Texas Tech and Northern Illinois.

The first chart below is a running tally of how each SEC team has performed against the spread this season. In other words, if Georgia is favored by 10 points, but wins by 20, the Bulldogs are +10 for that week. It gives us an idea of how teams are performing relative to expectations.

Team ATS Combined +/- ATS Record
1. Arkansas +78 7-2
2. Ole Miss +78 6-2-1
3. Tennessee +46 5-4
4. Mississippi State +40 5-3
5. LSU +32 5-3-1
6. Kentucky +29 6-3
7. Georgia +18.5 4-4
8. Missouri +18 5-4
9. Auburn +15.5 4-4
10. Alabama +9.5* 2-5*
11. Florida -2.5 3-4
12. Texas A&M -36.5 3-6
13. Vanderbilt -49 5-4
14. South Carolina -59 2-7

*The game against Florida Atlantic ended as a no contest because it was suspended and finalized before 55 minutes had been played. Alabama was leading 41-0 at the time. The Las Vegas Hilton line for the game closed at Bama -41.5.

The chart below tracks the average line for each SEC team throughout the season as an indicator of perceived strength. Alabama’s average Vegas line is minus-21.4, highest in the conference.

Only six SEC teams are a double-digit favorite on average through 10 weeks, as Ole Miss and Florida fell from the double-digit ranks this week.

Auburn, currently a 21.5-point home favorite against Texas A&M, has faced an average line of -14.8 this season compared to -14.6 for the Aggies, illustrating just how far A&M has fallen from its early-season perception.

Team Average Line Biggest Line
1. Alabama -21.4 -46.5 vs. Southern Miss
2. Georgia -15.9 -42 vs. Troy
3. Auburn -14.8 -34 vs. San Jose State
4. Texas A&M -14.6 -47 vs. Lamar
5. LSU -13.2 -43 vs. New Mexico State
6. Mississippi State -11.7 -30.5 vs. Southern Miss
7. Ole Miss -9.9 -26 vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
8. Florida -9.6# -41.5 vs. Eastern Michigan
9. South Carolina -8.4 -37.5 vs. Furman
10. Missouri -7.4 -26 vs. South Dakota State
11. Arkansas -3.3 -40.5 vs. Nicholls State
12. Kentucky -1.8 -23.5 vs. Tennessee-Martin
13. Tennessee +3.9 -26.5 vs. Chattanooga
14. Vanderbilt +6.9 -20 vs. Charleston Southern

#Florida entered the game against Idaho as a 37-point favorite, but after a long delay and the opening kickoff, lightning cancelled the contest. The line was final so it is still included in our average.

The following chart tracks the average over/under for every SEC team as well as whether each team’s games go over or under the posted Vegas total.

Despite an underperforming offense that’s forced Texas A&M’s games under the total two-thirds of the season, the Aggies have faced an average over/under of 67.2 points, by far the largest of the conference.

Georgia and Florida, which combined for 58 points to easily clear the posted total of 45.5 on Saturday, have yielded a glorious return on investment this year for those betting overs. The Bulldogs and Gators have gone over the posted total a combined 86.7 percent of their games.

Team Average Over/Under Biggest Over/Under Over/Under (Results)
1. Texas A&M 67.2 76.5 vs. Lamar 3/6
2. Arkansas 61.3 73.5 vs. Texas A&M 5/3
3. Auburn 60.5 67.0 vs. San Jose State 5/3
4. South Carolina 59.3 65.0 vs. East Carolina 6/2
5. Mississippi State 58.3 73.5 vs. Texas A&M 4/4
6. Georgia 55.9 64.0 vs. Troy 7/1
7. Missouri 55.3 71.5 vs. Indiana 3/6
8. Alabama 53.8 63.0 vs. Texas A&M 4/3
9. Ole Miss 53.6 64.0 vs. Texas A&M 3/6
10. Tennessee 53.3 59.5 vs. Arkansas State 3/5
11. Kentucky 52.1 59.5 vs. Mississippi State 5/4
12. LSU 51.7 66.0 vs. Sam Houston State 4/5
13. Florida 50.0# 56.5 vs. Eastern Michigan 6/1
14. Vanderbilt 49.9 59.5 vs. Old Dominion 4/5

#Florida entered the game against Idaho as a 37-point favorite, but after a long delay and the opening kickoff, lightning cancelled the contest. The line was final so it is still included in our average.

Christopher Smith

An itinerant journalist, Christopher has moved between states 11 times in seven years. Formally an injury-prone Division I 800-meter specialist, he now wanders the Rockies in search of high peaks.

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