Week 4 SEC betting lines
If you witnessed the Tigers-on-Tigers crime that took place on a football field in Baton Rouge, La., on Saturday, you saw what should be an abnormality in the SEC this season.
Thus far, the early SEC games have produced stinkers (Georgia-Vanderbilt, Auburn-LSU, Georgia-South Carolina), while all of the late games have been instant classics — or at least fraught with drama.
RELATED: 10 best SEC team performances of Week 3
This week, the outcome of Florida-Kentucky and Ole Miss-Alabama was not decided until late in the fourth quarter. Expect more of the same as we look ahead to the Week 4 matchups: there are five SEC games, four of which opened in Vegas with a line between minus-1.5 and minus-4.5.
Essentially, most of the SEC matchups should produce high drama.
LSU travels to Syracuse in the marquee non-conference game Saturday, though the line is off as the injury situation among the Orange quarterbacks remained muddled as of Sunday evening.
The Texas A&M-Arkansas line is intriguing, as the Razorbacks opened up as a short favorite this summer when some institutions released early “games of the year.” Now the Aggies are favored by 4.5, and that number could climb.
This week’s lineup features just one game against an FCS school (Southern at Georgia). Those lines usually aren’t posted in Vegas sports books until Friday. But they’re worth monitoring, as Auburn taught us two weeks ago against Jacksonville State.
Here are the rest of the Week 4 lines. All 14 SEC teams play.
| Matchup | Kickoff Time* | Line# |
|---|---|---|
| UCF at South Carolina | noon | Gamecocks -12.5 |
| LSU at Syracuse | noon | Off |
| Southern at Georgia | noon | Off |
| Tennessee at Florida | 3:30 p.m. | Gators -3 |
| La.-Monroe at Alabama | 4 p.m. | Crimson Tide -39.5 |
| Vanderbilt at Ole Miss | 7 p.m. | Rebels -28 |
| Texas A&M vs. Arkansas | 7 p.m. | Aggies -4.5 |
| Mississippi State at Auburn | 7:30 p.m. | Tigers -4 |
| Missouri at Kentucky | 7:30 p.m. | Wildcats -1.5 |
*Based on Eastern Time Zone
#Based on Wynn LV lines as of 6 p.m. ET Sunday
The SEC finished just 2-4 ATS in non-conference games during Week 3 play, dropping to 12-14-1 for the season against the Vegas line.
The relative perception of SEC teams reached a tipping point following Week 1, when the SEC went 8-4-1 ATS against non-conference teams and set an all-time record with 10 teams ranked in the Associated Press Top 25.
Missouri (0-3 ATS), Auburn (a combined -58 ATS the last two weeks) and Arkansas (back-to-back outright losses vs. Toledo and Texas Tech) are the main culprits.
Still, there are SEC teams performing to or beyond high expectations, even in Las Vegas. Ole Miss (3-0 ATS) is the only perfect team in Las Vegas. If you’ve bet $100 on the Rebels against the money line in Weeks 1-3, assuming odds of -110, you’ve made a profit of $272.73.
Then there’s LSU and Georgia, both of which beat the line against an SEC team by more than 16 points on Saturday and are entrenched in the top 10 of both major polls.
I doubt Auburn pulls off a win, not only because of their subpar showing saturday, but also because of Miss state’s currently trajectory. Not a fan of state at all, but you gotta respect what Mullen has done with2-3 star recruits(essentially talented athletes that were overlooked) in other news, I can’t for the week 5 show down in athens. *sun glasses emoji*
I respect Prescott more than Mullen. Without him, Mullen would have had just another bowl game team last year. This year, his team doesn’t have much besides Prescott, but Prescott alone is enough to do some damage.
I disagree. We’d got a good bit of talent around the team. Prescott isn’t the only player Mullen has developed. He is hugely important to our team though. We certainly wouldn’t be the same without him.
Without Mullen, Prescott is a senior tight end at LSU.
Respect? To Dan Mullen? For being exceptional at violating NCAA rules and getting away with it by pointing at other teams or for playing dirty football on the field? Every time State has ran afoul of the NCAA during Mullen’s time there, some blue blood in the SEC got investigated while State skated on by. State got busted trying to pay Cam Newton, Auburn got investigated. They got busted with agents, Alabama and Tennessee got investigated. Three years in a row an OL guy for MSU has been caught trying to intentionally injure opposing players.
What am I supposed to respect?
An Auburn guy complaining about recruiting issues. Classic.
Uh, name one other than Cam Newton. He’s out because that happened at Mississippi State and Auburn took their investigation. Wait a minute, booster meets up with recruit and guardian and payment is offered. Where’ve I heard that again? OHHHHH yeaaa.. “Peaches”. Harland “Peaches” Winston’s adopted kids Brent Calloway and Beniquez Brown. I think Alabama has suffered enough for Calloway but Brown.. that’s a question I think I’d like to see some investigating on. Call it karma.
I see no reason for Auburn to be favored over us, but it doesn’t matter in the scheme of things.
Miss State is one of those sneaky good teams. You go in knowing that most of Miss State’s starters from last year are gone and then BAM! Prescott scored a TD! I hope my Bama don’t overlook Miss State.
I think we’ll have a great game down in Starkvegas.
You should know by know Saban doesn’t overlook ANYONE bro lol
Haha, yep. We certainly don’t expect him to.
Free money?
^How Dan Mullen recruits.
Auburn wrote the book on cheating and getting away with it. I just hope Mullen bookmarked the pertinent chapters.
Coming from a Scam Newton fan…. lmao.
Okay. Now we’re talking. Mizzou is back in the underdog category where they belong. This is where we actually start improving!
Also, don’t fault Mizzou because Vegas needed more weight on UConn. That’s their call, not reality.
Maybe they need less weight on Mizzou. Uconn is 2-1 ATS, while Mizzou is 0-3. Sounds like they nee less weight on Mizzou to me.
Good point
You obviously are ignorant of how lines move and why. Well, not worth my time explaining because you’ll probably not understand and make a similar statement next week.
How is A&M only a -4.5 point favorite? I love my hogs and I hope I’m wrong, but I’d have no problem taking A&M -13.5.
Arky needs to pull their heads out and play their style of ball. I’m actually picking the upset here. A&Ms def is great vs passing teams or teams that run away from them…,.not so much vs smash mouth teams. The coach should shut up and get his team ready…..,.
As a Razorback fan I’m not even picking the upset. Our whole fanbase is getting tired of Mr. Talk-The-Talk-But-Too-Fat-To-Walk-The-Walk. Too bad our AD jumped on the bandwagon and made Bert’s buyout at 19 million. Wisconsin tried to warn us, the same way we tried to warn Ole Miss when they hired Houston Nutt several years back.
Florida struggled with ECU and Kentucky and the only time Tennessee hasn’t put 55 points on the board is when we lost in 2OT to the #15 team in the country. But yet Florida is still favored?
31-14 VOLS!!!!!!!
You are just setting yourself up for disappointment.
Vols win by a landslide.
When was the last time you beat the Gators?
hmmmm great point!!!!
When was the last time Missouri won the SEC? or a national Title? Beat their FCS opponent by at least 45?
When was the last time Tennessee beat Missouri? Never?
With the way Mizzou has played to this point, I wouldn’t be making that joke. Mizzou is undefeated in a 3 game series with the Vols…wow, what a tremendous feat. UT, in my opinion, is going to take the Gators out behind the woodshed and just may do the same to MIzzou, whether you like to admit it or not. At this point it’s looking like the East is between UGA and UT.
The only time UT has put 55 on the board was against bowling green and Western Carolina…. I don’t agree with the fact that UF is the favorite but to think that UT will come to the swamp and blow them out is naïve. Dobbs ain’t played on the road against a defense that good before
UF is the favorite until TN proves they deserve it. I do think UT finally has the talent to win the game but the gators still have a solid D and will not just let the Vols have the game. TN can’t come in a settle for FGs or the repeat of last year will happen. Two good Ds and the D or special team that steps up the most will win this game.
dude we have not beaten these jokers in 10 years. OF COURSE they are favored.
Who have you played?!?!? You lost to the best team you’ve played so far this year. If we increase our offensive putout by 20% against Tennessee I see a Florida win without a doubt. It’s going to be loud, decked out in blue, the D is going to be excited to prove last week wasn’t a fluke….Florida 27 Tennessee 19….11 years!
Dam straight!!!!#blueout
See T8stlkechkn, The problem with your statement, FL hasn’t play anyone either well besides KY. Now ya I guess 10 years is right but not 11 cause you wont win this weekend. I will tell you Why. FL does have a good D I wont say no to that. But this is where your wrong about the score how do you expect FL to score 27 on a good D like Tennessee’s? FL’s Offense well sucks point blank. Cant catch balls if you cant throw you sure cant keep running the ball every down that’s easy to stop. Now Tennessee’s Offense will get stopped a little bit but they will find ways to score they will score points on you by far Tennessee will run right over top of you. Now I sure hope for a clean game no one gets hurt neither team needs that. Tennessee will pass for 125 yards and rush 200. Leaving the final score at 31-14.
You must be drinkin’ the same Kool-aid as the Kentucky fan who told Me Florida’s Streak was Over as of this year too !, I really hate to put a not to fine of point on it, but, the Gators have a top 5 Secondary nationally !!, Vernon Hargreaves 3rd is Probably a top # 3 NFL Pick. You are jestin’ (And Boasting) about Tennessee’s Offense against Florida’s “D” in The “SWAMP”….lmao. They Will Be Up For this Game, Believe it !!!
Well I hope so. We both like to see good games. Trust me I know FL has a good D I wont even say they don’t but I am saying TN will find ways to score they do have a more powerful Offense then what you guys have play by far. Sorry KY nothing to put you guys down but I really think your D will have to play its best game yet to stay in this Game.
run all over us? u do realize how outstanding the rush defense has been right? we’ve allowed 166 yards TOTAL through 3 games and you think UT will run all over us? I remember hearing Hurd run his mouth last year and had a terrible game and Dobbs hasn’t played in a road environment like the one he’ll face Saturday…
I’m not delusional, blinded by Orange, and I don’t “Hate the Gators” like most rabid Volunteer fans–just Steve Spurrier–but I do feel strongly enough about my prediction for this game that I will go on record and say I GUARANTEE A TENNESSEE WIN OVER FLORIDA.
To back this up, if Tennessee loses I will delete my SDS account and say 100 Hail Tebows as an act of contrition.
Hell, after 10 years, I’ll try anything.
And who have you played? Granted Kentucky is an improving team, but you weren’t able to beat Kentucky or Eastern Carolina by more than a touchdown. I give you guys credit a 10 year streak is impressive, but theres no way their struggling offense will be able to put up enough points on our defense to make it to 11 wins. I’m calling Tennessee by 14 or more.
until we beat them (10 years ago) we should never be the favorite
This is a “Prove It” line for the Vols. In my opinion, Vegas would be insane to favor the Vols after a) Blowing it against OU and b) Losing to the Gators for 10 straight years. That said, I doubt the line remains at -3 Gators all week. I bet it’s a pick ’em by week’s end, if not -1 Vols.
This game is a psychological test for Tennessee. On paper, the Vols should win this, but any level-headed human being knows it won’t come easily. On the other hand, over-planning for this game will get us beat just as much. Line-up, play sound, fundamental football, and limit penalties/turnovers to win the game. Tennessee probably only needs 20 points to win.
No respect for the msu Bulldogs lol
Yuuuuup. Nothing new there.
No one respects dirty football.
True
Yea don’t preach to us about dirty football because of one player last year. I could flip the script on you with Fairley circa 2010.
Once? State has been in trouble for that every year since 2011.
This is a Joke, The college kids that do math on the calculator don’t understand this sport. They have not even hit a true point spread almost all year. But putting FL above the Vols is stupid. The Vols will blow out FL this week I promise that to you. Sorry fans but Gators haven’t showed anything special all season. They have a 3-0 start yes but only one decent win (KY). Also didn’t show anything on Offense. They have a good D yes but Tennessee has a great O. The lost we took was double overtime to a great OU team who is in the running for the play offs. Sorry not a close game. Bama fans try to say something but the last time ya’ll played OU ya’ll Lost.
I don’t understand the first part of your paragraph there, but these are the Vegas lines. Vegas rarely loses. You also don’t have a “great” O. You have a good one. Oklahoma doesn’t play much defense. Tulsa hung like what? 38 on em? It won’t be a blow out.
What he said….
EXACTLY what is UT basing their so called AMAZING team theory on? Oh, let me guess…. Their 2-1 record and home loss to a team they competed with GTFOH u can say UF struggled with Kentucky and ECU but guess what we struggled with them last year too and still won in Knoxville….. Will UT win? maybe but I can guarantee u this it wont be a blowout!!!!
This is my prediction 31-14 Vols. 125 Yards passing, 200 Yards Rushing. If I am wrong I will take the talk and say we lost but lets face it I really feel like I am right here. Just like you feel your right. America!!!
Auburn at -4? Suuuuure. Here’s how it goes-
Miss State will come out slinging while Auburn continues to drag around the overhype chains and Prescott makes it 14-0 Bulldogs by the end of the first quarter. JJ will throw an interception to start off the second quarter and Mississippi State capitalizes with a field goal. Johnson gets benched and Sean White pulls a Joshua Dobbs on everyone and EXPLODES the offense to a 21-17 lead at halftime. Auburn continues to boom into the third quarter with a 31-17 lead at 15 min left for game time before State mounts a Huge comeback to bring it to 31-24 with only three minutes left and a successful onside kick gets them a chance before Tray Matthews intercepts for the win.
Auburn will be all “We’re baaaacckk!!!!” And the country will be all “Holy moly, Sean White is the answer they needed!” And SDS will be drooling at the high yards of offense they finally posted. But it wont be enough. Kentucky upsets them later, Ole miss gets revenge and Georgia wins in OT while a couple of upsets on, say, TAMU and Bama or something like that helps Auburned-out to a crawling 8-4 finish with a glorious trip to the Music City Bowl against West Virginia. Which they dominate and begin the hype for next year all over again while Jeremy transfers to Arkansas State.
At this point, that’s all that can happen anymore. See ya next year, top 15.
Even that is somewhat hopeful thinking from the look of things.
And by somewhat hopeful I mean that it’s not gonna happen and to strap in because things could get rough.
Actually, Matthews drops the interception. Saw it happen when he was wearing red.
As a vols fan I can live with us being underdogs in this game. We need to be hungry. We need not doubt them dadgum gators because its been a decade since we beat them. I have been watching college ball since I was ten. I only have seen us win that game one time and I’m about to be twenty two. Let’s get it done this year vols dang.
Well said, good luck breaking the slump!
Actually a respectable post, hope its a great game…
if u like trends take miss st, auburn is 0 and 8 against the spread their last 8 games.And to the state fans who dont understand how the point spread works, its all based off perception,regardless of how bad auburn looks they are precieved to be the better team.Home field is typically worth 3 points so a true line is really auburn -1.Im personally done betting with auburn especially as a fav, but something tell me they buck the trend and pick up a win ATS 31-25.
I’m surprised they are favored home or not.
Trust me. I know that people bet Auburn regardless (same for Bama). But still. You have to be insane to take Auburn -4 in this one.
a wise man once told me if you dnt agree with vegas take their money and run +4 is great value.
I am lol. That line will be hammered back to MSU being the favored team.
Considering we haven’t beaten AU in Jordan Hare since 07 I have no problem with the line. Mullen loves to go to Auburn and crap the bed at the last second..circa 2011 and 2013.
The UK-MU game should be first to 9 points wins. O/U 16.
Nah, our offense has only struggled all 4 quarters against Florida. We will put up some points against you guys. Having said that, I’m surprised we are the favorite for this game. I have learned to not underestimate Mizzou in the East.
Our D is better than Florida’s, our O sucks. If you had trouble with Florida you will really have a problem with us (I hope)…….. Hansbrough should be back which is not good for UK if he is not back well then it will be low scoring I almost could say like a 13-10, 10-7 type game going either way!!!!!!
Your defense may be statistically better, but it’s not better overall. It allows more big plays than Florida as well.
Not talking shit, but that’s just the truth. UK offense hurt itself so much in the Florida game but Mizzou, at least thus far, doesn’t have a D-line like Florida’s…it’s just so fast and violent. Secondary isn’t a question.
Mizzou’defense is not as good as Florida,you guys have played NOONE.There is a good early parlay State,A&M and Kentucky 5/1 odds get that bet in.
@ Curtis… Bad talent evaluators evaluate stats. Good talent evaluators evaluate players. Watch the games. You don’t have to play against Tom Brady to see talent if you know what you’re looking at.
Your defense is strong, but your secondary is not as strong as Florida’s. I would put Mizzou and Florida’s overall defense on par with one another, maybe a slight edge to Florida, but if you are going to have a defensive weakness against an Air Raid offense, you don’t want it to be your secondary. Our O matches up against your D more favorably than it did against Florida, hence why we are the favorite in Vegas at the moment.
Blah blah…we’re all armchair coaches at this point. For all we know this could turn into an offensive shoot out…although I doubt it. I’ll take the over, and pick the Cats to cover.
Cats now -3 vs Mizzou. That has surprised me but I’m fine with it. Even with how bad Mizzou’s offense has looked, UK can’t play that bad again, at least offensively. Don’t think they will.
I’m not surprised the Cats are -3 the way Mizzous offense is playing. And I’m not certain how Mizzou will respond to those woes this week.
Understandable. Same here man, our offense hasn’t done much for an entire game now. Granted, Florida’s defense played great, but still. We had plenty of chances to win that one, or at least go up off of a touchdown, and didn’t execute. Thankfully, guys that screwed up, pretty much everyone, are used to stepping up so think they get right back to it.
This game is going to tell us alot about our teams, as well as Tenn-Florida being huge for the East as well. Good luck.
Aggies by ONLY 4.5?? Yall need to put the money down… that’s free money right there with how our year is going.
How is Florida a favor to beat TN???? I can honestly say that watching both teams, TN should walk away with this one! Also, Au being favored over Miss St is a stretch as well. Finally, A&M only 4.5 over Arkansas?!? Ummmmm….more like 24.5! Normally I dont have a lot to say about the spreads but this week seems pretty off to me!
As a Mississippi State graduate and football enthusiast, mainly SEC, I am tired of people not giving my school credit for the talent and recruiting we have done since Mullen has been our coach. People comment, and they have no idea what they are talking about because they haven’t kept up with the caliber of recruits we have gotten etc… At this point, we have some 4 star recruits as well as junior college transfers. In addition, Mullen has taken 2-3 star recruits, and they are starters in the NFL. Some are Super bowl Champions. For the past 3 years, we have had multiple Super bowl Champions on teams. A lot of athletes are not going to Bama and other places just to sit and not get to play. They are still getting their share of 5 star recruits, but the difference is, the rest of us are getting top 10-top 25 draft classes and developing our players. I am no Ole Miss fan, but people don’t want to give them credit either. But, the reason the SEC West is so good from top to bottom is that all of these athletes want to go somewhere and play. So, we are recruiting very well too. Even Les Miles admitted that on SEC Nation Saturday. He likened it to bull riding with a thin strap every Saturday. He said if you like great competition, you will love the SEC. We have a stable of running backs and receivers. People who watched our game Saturday could see that after we finally played an easy team. Two back up QB’s scored TD’s easily. In the LSU game, we could have won it at the end, but our kicker cannot kick a 52 yard field goal, and we missed a 2 pt. conversion. We lost that game by two pts. So, if you think LSU is that special, we are right there in their range. 2 pts. to be exact. I always give other schools credit when they are talented and are winners. Our athletes have worked hard to be where they are too, and they deserve the accolades they receive. Dak is a superstar for sure, but we have others on our team, and quite a few on awards and watch lists. Do your homework before you spout off about the talent level of a team. I know the personnel on all the SEC West teams and most of the east teams. I don’t comment on a team unless I know what I am talking about. I am sorry, but my entire family graduated at STATE. Our people at STATE are great people, and we do have a talented team. We did last year and this year. Give us a little credit.