Week 6 SEC Championship Predictor: Florida becomes new contender
Emphasizing the prediction part in ‘predictor’, here’s how we project each team’s chances to win the league title heading into the sixth weekend:
LSU (18 percent chance)
Saturday’s matchup against the Gamecocks is as favorable as they come from a league opponent perspective considering South Carolina’s run defense is porous and Leonard Fournette’s on fire between the tackles. Before we label the Tigers as one of the nation’s top-flight teams however, Brandon Harris and that passing game must improve.
TEXAS A&M (15 percent chance)
The Aggies showed the rest of the SEC an ability to close last week against a solid Mississippi State team, marking Kevin Sumlin’s first win over a nationally-ranked team in College Station. If Texas A&M stays healthy, there’s no reason the Aggies can’t stay in the West Division race over the next six weeks.
FLORIDA (13 percent chance)
Anyone who thought the Gators’ unbeaten start through four games was just smoke and mirrors turned their attention to Jim McElwain last week after Florida smashed Ole Miss, 38-10. He’s done a heck of a job getting this team prepared to play despite injury and inexperience issues. This weekend’s game at Mizzou won’t be easy, but the Gators are the better team.
ALABAMA (13 percent chance)
It wasn’t smart for several national media members to write off the Crimson Tide after the loss to Ole Miss and they proved it between the hedges with a clinic offensively. Derrick Henry ran hard, Jake Coker was nearly flawless and freshman wideout Calvin Ridley broke Georgia’s back with a long touchdown reception. Alabama’s definitely a true contender.
GEORGIA (12 percent chance)
The Bulldogs are better than what they showed last week. Believe that. Greyson Lambert struggled in the face of pressure and wilted during his first big-game environment. National title hopes are over with a loss at Tennessee on Saturday, but I still think Georgia can win the East even if Mark Richt’s team starts the SEC slate .500 through four games.
OLE MISS (10 percent chance)
Based on what we saw at The Swamp, the Rebels weren’t sure how to perform playing from behind. Chad Kelly struggled against Florida’s secondary and the run game never got going. I sense this team’s No. 3 ranking post-Alabama win over-inflated expectations a bit.
KENTUCKY (5 percent chance)
Up and down. The Wildcats needed a near miracle to beat Eastern Kentucky last week, which would’ve marked a cataclysmic letdown following an important win over Mizzou. This team hasn’t shown championship potential, but reaching bowl eligibility is almost certain.
MIZZOU (5 percent chance)
The Tigers can regain some of the momentum lost two weeks ago against Kentucky with a win over Florida this weekend and much of that falls on Drew Lock, a true freshman quarterback making his second career start. Mizzou’s defensive front once again pushes others around, but moving the football at a consistent clip has been a real challenge.
ARKANSAS (5 percent chance)
Bret Bielema said on Thursday’s Paul Finebaum Show that he’s excited to see the day when the Razorbacks climb to the top of the SEC mountain. That’s a long way yet, but last week’s road win at Tennessee was a decent start to a possible turnaround this season.
TENNESSEE (2 percent chance)
The Vols are fading fast, as is coach Butch Jones thanks to the sheer amount of vitriol surrounding his program. Josh Dobbs looks out-of-sync, Derek Barnett’s been missing at times and Tennessee has lost its sense of self-worth as one of the division’s darkhorses.
MISSISSIPPI ST. (2 percent chance)
Two league losses before November pretty much ends division championship aspirations, but the Bulldogs could still have a solid season and play spoiler down the stretch.
AUBURN (0 percent chance)
Duke Williams dismissed. Rush defense useless. Quarterback issues still apparent. There’s still a long way to go for the Tigers, one of the nation’s biggest disappointments.
SOUTH CAROLINA (0 percent chance)
This program hopes to give the Palmetto State something to cheer about at LSU during a time of peril in South Carolina following the devastation left in the wake of severe flooding.
VANDERBILT (0 percent chance)
Vanderbilt’s off this week in preparation for next Saturday’s game at South Carolina, one that could end the Gamecocks’ bowl hopes.