SEC
It’s been 13 years since the SEC stayed this calm.
There were no surprising firings, no offseason scandals and no inevitable departures. The offseason headlines that all but defined the SEC in the 13 years that followed were nowhere to be found from the end of 2005 to the start of 2006.
What happened in the next 13 years was anything but calm. There was at least 1 new coach in the conference every season that followed the outlier that was 2006. Not including interim coaches, here was the breakdown of head coaches changes in the SEC from 2006-19:
- Alabama: 1
- Auburn: 2
- Arkansas: 3
- Florida: 3
- Georgia: 1
- Kentucky: 2
- LSU: 1
- MSU: 2
- Mizzou (from 2012 on): 1
- Ole Miss: 3
- South Carolina: 1
- Tennessee: 4
- Texas A&M (from 2012 on): 2
- Vanderbilt: 3
That’s 29 head coaching changes in the SEC since the 2006 season started. Basically, it’s an average of more than 2 changes per team during that stretch, which equals 3 different head coaches at each school over the course of those 13 years. That’s also an average of just north of 2 coaching moves made per offseason in the SEC.
So why is this significant now?
Well, a couple reasons. Barring anything of Hugh Freeze-like craziness, the SEC will enter 2019 without a new coach for the first time since 2006. That, you might already know.
What you might not know is that what followed that quiet post-2005 offseason yielded arguably the most impressive stretch we’ve ever seen from a conference in the modern era of college football.
And call me crazy, but there are parallels galore between then and now.
Credit: Kevin Jairaj/CFP Images/Pool Photo via USA TODAY Sports
Before you catch me saying that the SEC is about to embark on a decade of unprecedented dominance again, let’s pump the breaks. Clemson is built to last in a way that USC and Texas weren’t under their respective head coaches following the thrilling end to the 2005 season.
That’s why it seems all but impossible that the SEC claims the next 7 national championships like it did from 2006-12. In case you forgot, 2 SEC teams (Florida and LSU) got their titles before Nick Saban got his first at Alabama. Including Auburn in 2010, 1/3 of the conference won a national title from 2006-12. That, in all likelihood, ain’t happening again.
But go back to why the post-2005 offseason didn’t have any coaching turnover in the first place. Several SEC teams had reason to believe they were in position to win a title with a relatively new coach:
Team
Head coach, year entering
2005 AP Top 25 finish
Preseason 2006 ranking
Florida
Urban Meyer, Year 2
No. 12
No. 7
LSU
Les Miles, Year 2
No. 6
No. 8
Georgia
Mark Richt, Year 6
No. 10
No. 15
Alabama
Mike Shula, Year 4
No. 8
No. 25
Auburn
Tommy Tuberville, Year 8
No. 14
No. 4
(I realize that Shula eventually gave way to Saban and that Auburn won its national title with Gene Chizik.)
Five SEC teams finished in the top 15 in 2005. Sound familiar? It should because that’s exactly what happened in 2018. It was actually 6 SEC teams in the top 16 if you want to include Jimbo Fisher’s Texas A&M squad.
Speaking of Fisher, he’s a key part of one of the 2006/2019 parallels. Look at Fisher entering Year 2 at A&M compared to Urban Meyer entering Year 2 at Florida:
Entering Year 2
Meyer (Florida)
Fisher (Texas A&M)
Year 1 AP finish
No. 12
No. 16
Year 1 record (SEC record)
9-3 (5-3)
9-4 (5-3)
First full recruiting cycle
No. 2
No. 4
Preseason Year 2 ranking
No. 7 (AP)
No. 11 (ESPN)
Year 2 finish
No. 1, national champs
TBD
Interesting, isn’t it? Obviously Meyer didn’t have to deal with Saban in his Year 2 like Fisher will have to, but the point is that we don’t see a ceiling yet.
Want another 2006/2019 comp? Sure. Stay with me on this one, but Les Miles and Kirby Smart had more similarities at that stage in their careers — an important caveat to this point — than people probably realize.
2006 vs. 2019
Miles (LSU)
Smart (Georgia)
Previous SEC record
7-1 (2005)
7-1 (2018)
Previous SEC finish
Win West, lose in SEC champ.
Win East, lose in SEC champ.
Previous AP Top 25 finish
No. 6 (2005)
No. 7 (2018)
Preseason Top 25 ranking
No. 8 (2006, AP)
No. 4 (2019, ESPN)
Year 2 finish
No. 3
TBD
Miles and Meyer of course each went on to win a national title in the 2 seasons after the SEC’s quiet post-2005 offseason. Will Smart and Fisher do that? I certainly wouldn’t rule it out, but obviously the Alabama-Clemson roadblock is still standing taller than ever.
But given how down the rest of the ACC is, how Ohio State is entering its first year of the post-Meyer era, how completely dreadful the Pac-12 has been and how Oklahoma couldn’t win its semifinal matchup against either SEC team with either of its Heisman Trophy winning quarterbacks, the time might be right for another SEC run.
It doesn’t have to be 7 consecutive national titles from 4 teams to be considered “a run.” Maybe 3 SEC teams win national titles in the next 5 years. Perhaps this is all setting up for Saban, Fisher and Smart to each win a national championship by the middle of the 2020s decade. Shoot, maybe it’s Dan Mullen at Florida who ends up doing his best Meyer imitation and he stuns everyone in Year 2.
We don’t know the future and no 2 programs are the same. But the past suggests that when the SEC has such a quiet offseason on the coaching front, it’s usually for a good reason. Five SEC teams won at least 9 games in 2005, and 6 SEC teams accomplished that feat in 2018.
In 2018, 9 of the 14 SEC teams won at least 8 games. That’s 64% of the conference. Believe it or not, the SEC at least hit that mark in in 2006, 2007, 2013, 2015. Yet for one reason or another, there was at least 1 new coach the following season.
This year is already different. Perhaps like 2006, the SEC is about to embark on a new era of success. For all we know, this offseason will serve as the calm before the storm.
And once again, soon it’ll be raining national titles for the SEC.
Sure would be nice if the ball bounced our way and Lady Luck smiled on us this year.
There’s only one way to quench the thirst for a National Championship – And that’s to actually win one.
You have the O-line to pull it off this year but I don’t think Fromm can elevate his game. I expect you’ll drop 2 games at least.
Could you explain why you think Fromm needs to elevate his game in order for UGA to win a NC? And if you’re predicting 2 regular season losses, which two?
I don’t think Fromm is the problem.
In the NCG (01/08/18) and the SECCG (12/01/18), it was the defense that failed us.
Notre Dame fans are very excited about their defensive end talent and their wide receiver depth. But linebackers are young and inexperienced, so all Georgia has to do is run Swift up the middle or throw a quick slant, exploiting the linebackers and neutralizing the defensive ends. That’s why I’m projecting the Dawgs to win by 2 scores.
Whoops that wasn’t for you that was in extension to my previous comment sorry.
He went from a TF starter in 2017 to a top-5 QB nationally last year. He has every tool in the QB toolbox, including off-the-charts football IQ. His completion rate would have been near 75% last year if drops are taken out. Two years in a row he showed out against Bama, only to watch the D crumble and give away substantial leads late in the games.
What in the world makes you think he can’t “elevate his game”?
Georgia goes 11-1 at worst with most likely loss coming to either Notre Dame or Texas A&M, but I favor the Dawgs by 13 against the Irish. Notre Dame doesn’t have Manti Teo, Louis Nix, or Prince Shemba like they did in 2012, so I don’t know who’s going to stop Swift. A&M is a tougher one because Mond had a good year last year and looks really good in spring ball so that offense won’t be easy to contain. But both Notre Dame and Texas A&M come to Sanford, which makes it much easier for them. Georgia by 8 against the Aggies and 13 against the Irish. But it’s never a good idea to project ANYONE to go 12-0 – the 2014 Ducks couldn’t even do it despite the Pac-12 North being softer than Charmin. Georgia will likely lose one, most likely A&M or Notre Dame, but they finish 11-1 at worst IMHO. If they do go 12-0, they should be a lock for the CFP unless Bama beats them by 5+ possessions in the SEC Conference Championship which they won’t. I expect that not having Fields constantly nipping at his heels will help Fromm relax early on and starter hotter.
I love Kelly B, but Mizzou should be a win for Georgia just based on the overall talent (Don’t @ me saying I’m not a real Mizzou fan, because I’m not a Mizzou fan). Dawgs will be hungry, angry, and motivated to beat Florida by 4+ possessions because of how much Dan Mullen has been running his mouth. South Carolina, they’re South Carolina. Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and the other 3 out-of-conference ones are wins. Auburn is so volatile already, and they’ll be even more volatile with a true freshman at quarterback, which means this could be a loss for Georgia especially considering Kirby’s track record against SEC West teams on the road. But overall most likely losses will be Texas A&M, then Notre Dame, then huge dropoff to Auburn, and then huge dropoff to everyone else. 11-1 worst case IMHO.
And @…, Fromm struggled in the first half of most games (except Bama when he was on fire the whole game) last year. He needs to play like he did against Bama for UGA to win a NC. If Fromm starts cold like he did in several games last year including LSU and Texas, UGA is going to get burned, badly. He needs to start hot.
If we drop 2 games, then it certainly won’t have been Fromm’s fault.
Next year will depend on 1) the D-line, 2) the linebackers, and 3) the WRs.
I remember a number of people on SDS saying UGA would lose at least 4 regular season games last year.
I remember a number of UGA fans saying UGA was going to win the NC last season as well…. Looks like people just can’t predict the future yet..
“There were no surprising firings, no offseason scandals and no inevitable departures”
Well….The NCAA did stick their boot up Mizzou’s ass and banned us from doing about 12 different things. But other than that….
I realize the article is talking about coaches though so take this as food for thought
I’m guessing it was just coaching scandals..UF has had a rough may
LMAO TigerTD! Well said.
The thing that makes it weird is that I don’t think any SEC schools were even potentially close to making a change. The coaches of the non-bowl teams were all early enough in their tenure that firing was basically off the table, and the coaches who were on the hot seat coming in (Derek Mason, Barry Odom, Gus Malzahn) all did enough. I think the only one of the bunch where a post season firing wouldn’t have been outright shocking is Malzahn, not because he deserves it but because the in-season buzz around it was pretty deafening.
I could definitely see UGA going all the way this year. I think its possible they drop one regular season game this year to either one of their west opponents. But if UGA can finally beat bama then I can see them at least in the NC game.