Which SEC QB has the best chance to pass for 3,500 yards in 2020?
When you think about football in the SEC, you might think speed first. If you think speed first, you might think elite defenses with speed second.
Or maybe you think big-name coaches with Wall Street salaries first.
Or maybe you just think passion and pageantry.
Any of these things would be acceptable.
It would also make sense to think about quarterbacks.
Since 2007, 4 SEC signal callers have captured the Heisman Trophy: Tim Tebow, Cam Newton, Johnny Manziel and Joe Burrow. Three more were Heisman finalists (Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, Tim Tebow). Another was an All-American (Dak Prescott). Another became a program legend (Jake Fromm). Another threw for 4,000 yards (Chad Kelly). Another (briefly) set the record for TDs in a season (Drew Lock). In other words, it’s a pretty good league if you like elite quarterback play.
Beyond the accolades, there’s this staggering statistic: Since the year 2008, the SEC has had at least 1 quarterback throw for 3,500 yards or more in every season save 2016. Other than the BIG XII, where, as Oklahoma’s Playoff performances consistently demonstrate, defense remains optional– no other conference in America can claim that distinction.
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Will the gaudy numbers continue in 2020?
Among the SEC’s returning quarterbacks, here are the top 4 candidates to accomplish the feat and surpass the 3,500 yards passing mark in 2020.
K.J. Costello, Mississippi State
KJ Costello’s Stanford teams could really move the football in the air, and the graduate transfer will give Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense a talented and experienced hand that should ease Leach’s transition to the SEC. Plus, he’ll get to team up with Kylin Hill, perhaps the league’s best running back, to give the Bulldogs outstanding playmaking balance. Hill’s ability to keep defenses honest coupled with Leach’s scheme make Costello one of the top candidates to surpass 3,500 yards passing next season.
Another thing to remember? Costello has broken the 3,500-yard barrier before. He passed for 3,540 yards as Stanford’s starting quarterback in 2018. He managed that on 413 attempts, which even with Hill to tote the rock could be 100 fewer attempts than he gets in Starkville next season. For perspective, Anthony Gordon threw for more than 5,000 yards on over 600 attempts last season for Leach at Washington State. I don’t think Costello hits 5,000, because Leach has never had a back like Hill to give his attack balance. But I think Costello assures the SEC of at least 1 quarterback who breaks the 3,500 yards passing barrier in 2020.
Kellen Mond, Texas A & M
Facing one of the nation’s most brutal schedules, Mond’s numbers actually slipped a bit in 2019. After throwing for 3,107 yards as a sophomore, Mond threw for 2,897 yards as a junior, despite 4 more passing attempts. The difference? Most likely the defenses he faced. Mond finished the season averaging only 6.9 yards per attempt, more than half a yard below his sophomore average and .3 below the national average of 7.2.
Look, if you play in the SEC West, the schedule is naturally difficult. But the Aggies replace Georgia with Vanderbilt this year in their crossover game, which has to be sweet relief to Jimbo Fisher and Mond. Fisher is known for coaxing excellence out of the quarterback position, and Mond will be the rare player who starts a 3rd season under his tutelage. History is on his side. Jameis Winston broke the 3,500-yard barrier in both of his campaigns as the starter in Tallahassee — and EJ Manuel nearly did it as a senior under Fisher as well.
The talent is there for Mond to take the leap. But it’s never been about talent with Kellen. Can he finally become consistent?
Mac Jones, Alabama
Chuckle if you want, but the dude threw for more than 1,500 yards last season in basically 4 games. He also lit up two outstanding defenses — Auburn and Michigan– in the final 2 games, throwing for 772 yards and 7 touchdowns in those contests.
Yes, Alabama loses the heart of one of the best wide receiving corps in college football. But it isn’t like Nick Saban stopped recruiting wide receivers because Jerry Jeudy was on campus.
The Tide have plenty of weapons and Jones has done more than enough to show us he’s a fine football player in his own right, even if he’s guilty as charged of not being Tua Tagovailoa.
Does that mean he gets to 3,500 yards? Tua threw for almost 4,000 as the full-time starter in 2018 despite sharing snaps with Jalen Hurts, and would have easily eclipsed 3,500 in 2019 had it not been for injuries.
Alabama does expect to be a bit more of a power football team next year given what returns in the backfield, but Nick Saban won’t abandon the balance that has made the Tide so tough to stop in the last few seasons. That probably means Jones has a great shot at the number.
Kyle Trask, Florida
Florida’s senior quarterback started only 10 games last season and threw for 2,941 yards — so it’s relatively safe to say he would have eclipsed 3,500 had he started from Day 1. He should be the starter from Day 1 next season, which will give him a terrific shot at making the leap.
That said, there are a couple of things to consider before you run to Vegas and bet the house on Trask.
The first is that Florida’s offensive line came on a bit late in the season, and with added depth up front, Florida might get back to some of the more traditional zone and power run schemes that are a staple of Dan Mullen’s spread offense. Second, Florida lost 4 senior wide receivers to graduation, huge losses that will put pressure on Florida to be a bit more balanced, especially early in the season as a talented but very young wide receiver corps takes its medicine and learns the ropes.
Finally, there’s the curious case of Emory Jones, the dual-threat who is a perfect fit for Mullen’s system and has played quite well in spot duty. How much more involved will he be in the offense in 2020? Will Mullen deploy him as a run-first quarterback again, as he did in 2019? Or will he let Jones loose, and convert the Florida quarterback job into a timeshare in the process?
These things are worth considering — but the smart money is still on Trask — who makes smart reads, has a live arm and throws a really accurate football — to be close to the 3,500-yard mark passing in 2020.
Mac will pass for close to 4,000, despite having a run heavy offense. Bama’s run game will be strong this year.
Notice you don’t see Brennan or Newman on here. Now Fromm never threw for 3000 yards and Burrow only did it once. But that is what it took to win a NC.
I don’t see Mac passing for close to 4K yards because I don’t see Mac making it past week 4 as the starter with Bryce Young breathing down his neck. Also not sure why the shots at UGA and LSU were necessary? Although I find it pretty funny that Bama fans are now so worried about the other teams that they are starting to take unprovoked shots like the UGA fans on here do.
Then, of course, you had to get your unprovoked shot in.
Didn’t take a shot at UGA, the team, I took a shot at the idiot “fans” that spend all day trolling this site. For that I will never apologize.
An observation is neither trolling or sweating. It’s an observation. Pointing out the article mentioned neither Brennan or Newman is a fact. How is that trolling?
Can we please stop with the this is “trolling” whiny baby crap. If you disagree with something someone says, then state your disagreement and move on. Stop Labeling everything.
RollTide, Gator never mentioned trolling or sweating so not sure where you got those from. He just said you were taking a shot at UGA & LSU by mentioning the fact that neither of their QBs were on the list while ignoring the fact that there were 8 other teams whose QB was not mentioned in the article.
UGA2012… Yes he actually did mention trolling…
Only UGA and LSU have playoff aspirations. Who cares about the other 8 teams.
And he did mention trolling. It is a tired tactic to silence people.
I’ll clear it up since a few Bama fans seem to be confused. I mentioned trolling in relation to all the UGA trolls on so many articles. I did not say that the OP (RollTide-CO) was trolling, just taking an unprovoked shot at UGA and LSU which I questioned him on. Hope this clears it up since so many of you can’t understand that.
So many of you? How many people said you called the OP a troll?
I am confused why you needed to clear up your trolling reference as it relates to this thread. My position is of a much broader observation of posters.
Sometimes people do troll, I get it. Occasionally I do, as I’m sure we all have. The good ones are typically done to be funny at another teams expense. Not trigger someone. Grow a pair, don’t cry, it is just a joke. Those are very obvious and don’t need to be called out.
However, the vast majority of the time people have cried “troll” to me is completely inaccurate. Most of the time, I am providing an opinion and trying to engage in a sports debate or conversation with another fan base. If you have a serious issue with what was said, instead of just crying “troll”, maybe make a case for your team by using facts and logic, without calling names or character assassination.
People are often times over sensitive about their team. In reality, your team doesn’t need you to defend them. They can hush the deniers on the field.
I spend time on this site when I need a break from my company. And because I enjoy the clever banter, which is sometimes ruined by those of you who want to cry.
I literally just said you weren’t trolling RT-CO. Are you really this dumb?
@Gator4ever, youre right. It’s fun to watch them sweat.
Is that what it is called when a LSU fan shows up to take shots on a Bama article?
Just curious because I thought you were just trolling with your posts on Bama articles but I guess your were sweating…
When LSU loses 3 games in 2020, will you be the first to admit you were wrong?
If LSU wins out again, I’ll be the first to admit I was wrong. Not an issue. No sweating here. Just observations.
Im pretty realistic when it comes to this stuff and troll pretty rarely. Brennan has mad multiple articles lately solely written about him. It’s definitely more than other teams can say. Yeah I’ll admit I was wrong if we lose 3 games next season. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities either! You cant predict variable factors either because what happens if happens if tons of impact players get hurt next season. Exactly what happened to yall last season. Ive never said im predicting us to win out, but there’s a path! I bet yall didnt predict to have 2 losses last season.
There’s one commonality between all the QB’s listed up there and thats that they all have experience. Theyre all safe bets for a writer to make predictions.
Oh I did before the season started. The loses on D were too great to start.
You can dream can’t you. We are not worried about anything but reserving hotels for January 11th in Miami, putting the team ticket reservation dates on our calendars, determining when to pull the trigger on the flights. You probably don’t know what I’m talking about, but Bama fans get ready for the championship in the off season, not worry about other teams. I’ll book my ticket to Miami on 9/20/20.
Man I hope your fellow fans didn’t take your advice last year!
Hotels can be cancelled. The flight booking date was after the LSU game. I lost on the reservations, but it still works out cheaper over time. It’s called planning, when you go every year it’s easy.
But you don’t go every year… that’s the point.
Nobody goes every year but that does t stop fans from reserving early to try and save money… Considering how often Bama has been it’s not a bad chance to take.
That would A Bama fan. A more accurate statement would be that UGA has both a new QB and OC so it is unfair to set expectations to high or to low. It’s an unknown. Even more so at LSU. Starting QB with no starting experience and new passing game coordinator. Unless Jones struggles he will not lose the job.
I dont think it’s out of the realm for Brennan to throw over 3500. The kid is a gunslinger so who knows. I predict he has a ton of yards but more interceptions than Burrow. We have the receiving corp and the goal to pass more than other seasons so whats holding him back from reaching that? Throwing over 3500 yards also doesnt mean that translates to winning out either.
I guess Neil feels like they weren’t worth including in list.
You didn’t mention Mond will be facing a reeling Colorado team instead of a CFP team like Clemson. I don’t know if Mond is the guy to push for a run to Atlanta, but I don’t think 3,500 yards is out of the question.
Last year in an anemic offense, Jake Fromm threw for 2,860 yards.
With a new “air raid” OC, a bevy of highly talented receivers, and in spite of some run heavy tendencies, I could see a UGA QB passing for 3,500 yards. That would be about an extra 50 yards per game.
For all answers regarding UGA, the magic eight ball is stuck on the following answers until after the end of spring practice:
● Reply hazy, try again.
● Ask again later.
● Better not tell you now.
● Cannot predict now.
● Concentrate and ask again.
As long as the definitive answer doesn’t turn out to be bullet point 3, we’ll be fine.
LMAO
Well done, sir.
I could see Saban returning to a much heavier run offense which might prevent Mac from breaking 3500. I don’t think Mond will get there. Brennan, Jones, and Costello are probably the safest bets. I bet there’ll probably be at least 3 who break 3500 yards though.
Agree on Mack, but I think Mond will get awfully close if he doesn’t get there. There will undoubtedly be a step up in the receiving core this season, especially on the deep routes. The one thing I see actually holding him back from hitting that mark is the possibility of a stronger running game this season. It’s still a big question mark after losing Corbin and Kibodi to the transfer portal, but Spiller was coming on strong late in the season. Of course although unproven, the current crop of RB’s are also pretty adept at catching the ball as well so we could see quite a few of those passing yards come as YAC’s.
True…also, his pass-pro has nowhere to go but up.
I sure hope so.. they are returning most of the veterans on the O-line so hopefully they get it together this season. Fisher was opening up Mond’s running game more towards the end of the season as well which could certainly help if it continues.
Mac is very capable of meeting this mark but I’m not sure he is going to be asked to… With NH back and the entire Oline except one I expect Saban to take it back to a more run heavy offense. That being said, Bama has some home run targets at WR so if he doesn’t make it he will be close.
Think Alabama gets back to a more balanced offense so don’t expect Mac to throw 3500 Yards.
I don’t see Mac Jones finishing with 3,500 yards… because I just don’t see him being able to keep Bryce Young off the field…I really believe by mid season Young will be the starter…I believe Mac Jones is a good qb and could do the job…but Young is just to talented to sit on bench…
How would you like your crow neil?