They’re a must-click for me. I’m man enough to admit that.

If you make a “hot-seat list” for coaches who are under the most pressure to win, buddy, I’m gonna read it. Not only am I gonna read it, but I’m also gonna overanalyze it and compare it to my own running list. It’s been a healthy, but often maddening form of entertainment for yours truly.

This offseason, it’s been far more of the latter.

When I’ve read or listened to an offseason hot-seat list for 2023, I’ve usually found myself saying the same thing over and over again.

“So, we’re just gonna say NOTHING about the buyout?!?”

You see, buyouts matter. If Jimbo Fisher’s buyout were $8.6 million instead of $86 million last year, he’s not in College Station anymore. Period. Even in this era of booming media contract revenue, we cannot just assume that these numbers are Monopoly money. There are still human beings who have to cut 8-figure checks for other human beings not to work. It’s not always as simple as “well, 8-4 just isn’t what he should be doing.”

So far, no head coach has surpassed more than the $21.5 million that Gus Malzahn got to leave Auburn at the end of the 2020 season. To assume that several schools would be willing to pay coaches significantly more than that is absurd.

And for what it’s worth, saying a coach has “a ton of pressure on him” is the same thing as saying a coach is on the hot seat. What’s pressure related to if it isn’t job security? If someone came up to me and said that I have an extreme amount of pressure to do my job effectively, I’d say that’s their way of saying I can be fired for underperforming.

Remember that for all these coaches, this is approximately what it would cost to fire them at the end of the 2023 season:

  • Jimbo Fisher, A&M: $76.8 million
  • Mel Tucker, Michigan State: $76 million
  • Billy Napier, Florida: $31.9 million
  • Brent Venables, Oklahoma: $29.4 million
  • Tom Allen, Indiana: $20.8 million
  • Eli Drinkwitz, Mizzou: $19.9 million
  • Steve Sarkisian, Texas: $18 million
  • Mario Cristobal, Miami (FL): Unknown (but original contract was 10 years, $80 million)

All of those coaches have been linked to having “pressure” or being on some sort of hot-seat list. That, to me, lacks context. I’m not sitting here saying there’s a 0% chance that any of those coaches get fired because that’s not the world we live in, but we need buyout context.

I can’t tell you how many times I’ve had to read or listen to something about Napier’s job security without the context that Scott Stricklin essentially made a $60 million commitment to him and his well-documented support staff (Napier is owed 85% of the remaining contract if fired after 2023). To think that Stricklin is going to pull the plug on Napier and pay $10 million more than the richest buyout EVER given to a head coach amidst some 6-6 season is, to me, ridiculous.

What else is ridiculous? Saying that A&M would absolutely pay $76.8 million to part ways with Fisher if he doesn’t improve enough. Scott Woodward is aggressive, but he’s the same guy who rewarded Fisher with that new 10-year contract in September 2021. And the response is “well, it’s A&M so ya never know.” Well, remember that insane buyout that Kevin Sumlin got from A&M after a disappointing 2017 season? It was for a whopping … $10.4 million. Yeah, that’s roughly 13.5% of what it would take to fire Fisher.

Get Fisher and Napier off your hot-seat list.

I don’t even like Venables showing up on hot-seat lists. Yes, it was a disastrous Year 1 in Norman for the longtime Clemson defensive coordinator. Still, though. Do we really think that Oklahoma, AKA a school that has never had to pay a head coach buyout, is about to fork over more than $30 million to gut that staff just as it joins the SEC? I sure as heck don’t, especially with the context of wanting to win the Lincoln Riley breakup.

Sarkisian is a little bit of a different story. If you just look at the buyout number, $18 million, you wouldn’t think twice about Texas pulling the plug on him if he has a disappointing Year 3. The Longhorns could easily be the Big 12 favorite, with expectations to have their best season of the post-Mack Brown era.

But again, context. Arch Manning picked Sarkisian and the Longhorns. He could transfer elsewhere without penalty if Sarkisian is fired. The idea of losing a potentially generational quarterback — that’s what he’s been billed as — to start over yet again with another coach doesn’t seem likely. That, even more than an $18 million buyout, should keep Sarkisian around for Year 1 in the SEC in 2024.

And with coaches such as Allen and Drinkwitz, I included them because if you say they’re facing a ton of pressure, you’re saying you believe that Indiana and Mizzou are about to fork over about $20 million to fire a head coach. Yes, you could argue that another losing season for both would be incredibly disappointing and that neither Allen nor Drinkwitz lived up to the expectations that went with their rich extensions. But $20 million is still a ton of buyout money for a pair of programs who never pay that kind of money to part ways with a coach.

OK, so it took a bit for me to get here, but I know what you’re thinking. Don’t present a problem without providing a solution.

Which Power 5 coaches should actually be on the hot seat based on buyouts?

I actually thought ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg nailed it earlier this offseason when he listed Dino Babers, Neal Brown and Justin Wilcox as his 3 Power 5 head coaches on the hot seat.

We don’t know what Babers’ buyout is because Syracuse is a private university, but Pete Thamel reported that to fire him last year would’ve been more than $10 million. Even if his contract, which wasn’t extended, still has a buyout of $10 million, that’s not too rich to fire a head coach. The majority of Power 5 head coaches have 8-figure buyouts. That’s been the case since before the 2020 season. Babers is 9-25 vs. a down ACC since that breakout 2018 season. He has legitimate pressure to get it done in 2023.

Neal Brown at West Virginia is another one who should be unanimously on hot seats. He’s an underwhelming 22-25 in 4 seasons in Morgantown, and he’s yet to break past 6 wins. His $17 million buyout saved him last year after a 5-7 season, but that number drops to $13 million at the end of 2023, plus there’s an offset clause meaning that West Virginia could save some money if Brown gets another job.

Wilcox is trying to lead California to its first bowl game of the 2020s, but after 2021, Cal rewarded him for not bolting for alma mater Oregon, and he got a 6-year deal through 2027. However, that buyout is just $3.75 million, so a 4th consecutive down season could be all she wrote.

It’s boring if your entire Power 5 hot seat list includes just those 3 coaches. I get that. A casual college football fan probably couldn’t name the head coaches for West Virginia, Syracuse and Cal.

But at the same time, that’s a far more realistic list than discussing why $76 million buyouts could be paid. Even a $30 million buyout feels steep. Do I believe that’ll be paid one day? Probably. I just don’t see it for coaches who are only 2 years into their contracts like Napier, Venables and Cristobal. Even Tom Herman got 4 years at Texas, and that buyout was only $15.4 million ($24 million for the whole staff).

It’s OK to add some context to these job security conversations. Buyouts matter.

Your hot seat list doesn’t matter if those figures are absent.