I have a confession.

I love reading way-too-early mock drafts. For whatever reason, they provide me with entertainment in such a unique way. There’s the initial reaction of seeing someone like Nick Fitzgerald appear in a way-too-early mock draft that triggers the shock factor. Reading the way-too-early mocks — and not doing one myself — allows me to scratch my head at draft experts who try to predict what a draft will look like roughly 364 days in advance.

Don’t get me wrong. I know why they do it. It’s for people like me and you who already want to talk about the next batch of draft prospects the second the previous one heads off to the NFL (Todd McShay says it’s the least favorite — and most-read — thing he does). It’s the same reason we do way-too-early Top 25s.

The difference between those and the way-too-early mock drafts is that we actually have a full season of football in between seeing how the latter will play out. A way-too-early Top 25 isn’t trying to predict how the upcoming season’s Top 25 will finish. Shoot, even the Associated Press Preseason Top 25 isn’t supposed to be a prediction of how things will play out (even though some voters treat it as such).

I bring this up because if you looked back on the way-too-early 2021 mock drafts and compared it to what they look like now that the 2021 season is over, well, you’ll see what I saw. That is, a massive difference in the SEC prospects.

I mean, it makes sense. We’re a few weeks removed from watching Mac Jones and Kyle Trask earn Heisman Trophy invites, only to lose to an SEC receiver not named Ja’Marr Chase. Kudos to you if you somehow cashed in on that wild parlay in the preseason.

I looked back at 4 publications with way-too-early 2021 mock drafts (from any time before the start of 2020) and more recent mock drafts (from any time after the finish of 2020) and show the biggest changes in SEC prospects. Some of those like Chase, Jaylen Waddle and a couple of others were spot on in terms of preseason vs. postseason mocks.

For what it’s worth, I didn’t include a few different types of prospects here.

DeVonta Smith had preseason Round 1 buzz (McShay had him in the top 10 last April), despite the fact that he obviously helped his draft stock tremendously in 2020. Still, how much variance will there be between where he was mocked a year ago and where he ends up? Probably not a ton. Kyle Trask isn’t on this list because again, while he improved his draft stock a ton, he wasn’t listed in the latest Round 1 mocks by any of those 4 publications.

I also didn’t include the guys who weren’t unanimous first-rounders in the 4 latest mock drafts that I looked at.

Here’s what I found:

Underestimated

Mac Jones, Alabama QB

Way-too-early mocks:

  • Bleacher Report: Not listed
  • ESPN: Not listed
  • PFF: Not listed
  • Sporting News: Not listed

Current mocks: 

  • Bleacher Report: No. 15
  • ESPN: No. 15
  • PFF: No. 19
  • Sporting News: No. 19

This just in — Jones was much better than anyone could have ever predicted in 2020. In terms of guys who benefitted from actually having a season played, Jones has to top the list. At this time a year ago, it wasn’t even a foregone conclusion that he’d start, and all he did was lead one of the most dominant seasons we’ve ever seen in the sport. More important was the fact that he did so with incredible poise and accuracy. Jones averaged 11.2 yards per attempt with a 41-4 TD-INT ratio that came exclusively against SEC and Playoff competition. He’s not being held in the same conversation as Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson or Justin Fields because the raw strength and mobility isn’t on that level, but how telling it is that all of those 4 publications even have Jones coming off the board before the first 20 picks of Round 1.

Kyle Pitts, Florida TE

Way-too-early mocks:

  • PFF: No. 15
  • ESPN: No. 23
  • Bleacher Report: Not listed
  • Sporting News: Not listed

Current mocks: 

  • PFF: No. 6
  • Bleacher Report: No. 6
  • Sporting News: No. 10
  • ESPN: No. 11

So here’s something you may or may not know. Pitts had Pro Football Focus’ highest-graded offensive season of the Playoff era. No, he wasn’t totally off the radar coming into 2020, but goodness. He put together arguably the best season we’ve ever seen from a college tight end and did so with highlight-reel catch after highlight-reel catch. Pitts also improved significantly as a run-blocker in 2020. He’s not just a big receiver getting credit for taking advantage of matchups against linebackers. In 2020, Pitts dominated any and all matchups, which is why he could be the highest tight end drafted since Vernon Davis went No. 6 overall in 2006.

Kadarius Toney, Florida WR

Way-too-early mocks:

  • Bleacher Report: Not listed
  • ESPN: Not listed
  • PFF: Not listed
  • Sporting News: Not listed

Current mocks: 

  • ESPN: No. 19
  • PFF: No. 21
  • Bleacher Report: No. 23
  • Sporting News: No. 29

It was fascinating watching the well-documented transformation of Toney from converted quarterback who didn’t get enough touches to the explosive, high-volume receiver with Round 1 upside. All 4 publications have the speedy Toney coming off the board after a year that saw him stay healthy and become an elite route-runner in Dan Mullen’s offense. Those comps to Tyreek Hill came in bunches as Toney racked up big game after big game. He can line up anywhere, though he mostly projects as a slot guy (that’s where he played 506 of his 613 offensive snaps) who can stretch the field and be an elite weapon in the return game. It’d be surprising if Toney didn’t come off the board in Round 1, which is a totally different story than the likely Day 3 flier he was entering 2020.

Jaycee Horn, South Carolina CB

Way-too-early mocks:

  • Bleacher Report: Not listed
  • ESPN: Not listed
  • PFF: Not listed
  • Sporting News: Not listed

Current mocks: 

  • ESPN: No. 23
  • Sporting News: No. 24
  • PFF: No. 25
  • Bleacher Report: No. 26

Go ask Seth Williams how frustrating it is to play against Horn for 60 minutes. He’s a lockdown cover corner who has the size and ball skills to line up on the outside (he played 342 snaps on the outside vs. 71 in the slot). Even with Horn’s NFL bloodlines, he wasn’t an elite preseason prospect to the national folks who probably read a little too much into his 0 career interceptions. The current mocks have as close a consensus that’s essentially all the same. Barring an injury, Horn should be one of the first few corners off the board.

Azeez Ojulari, Georgia Edge

Way-too-early mocks:

  • Bleacher Report: Not listed
  • ESPN: Not listed
  • PFF: Not listed
  • Sporting News: Not listed

Current mocks: 

  • Bleacher Report: No. 22
  • PFF: No. 22
  • Sporting News: No. 22
  • ESPN: No. 32

You can come up with a few reasons Ojulari didn’t get much preseason love from the draft analysts. He played in a crowded Georgia defense, and as a redshirt freshman, he only had 5.5 tackles for loss as an edge rusher. But after the year he had in Kirby Smart’s defense, Ojulari now looks extremely likely to come off the board to a contender late in Round 1. A 3-sack Peach Bowl capped a season in which Ojulari posted the No. 3 PFF grade among FBS Edge rushers. If Ojulari wound up going to the pass-rush desperate Titans to play for Mike Vrabel as 3 of those publications projected, it wouldn’t be a surprise.

Christian Barmore, Alabama DT

Way-too-early mocks:

  • PFF: No. 8
  • ESPN: Not listed
  • Bleacher Report: Not listed
  • Sporting News: Not listed

Current mocks: 

  • PFF: No. 16
  • Sporting News: No. 20
  • ESPN: No. 25
  • Bleacher Report: No. 30

Credit to PFF, which had Barmore graded out extremely well in a limited role as a redshirt freshman in 2019. Go figure that PFF is actually lower on Barmore after the breakout season — and dominant finish — he had in 2020. What others saw was just how impactful Barmore could be as an interior defensive lineman with a full load of reps. Even though he’s still much better as a pass-rusher than a run-defender, his pressure allowed Alabama to drop extra men into coverage. There’s no doubt that Barmore’s final 2 games — wherein he generated a combined double-digit pressures with 3 tackles for loss and 2 sacks — made him some money. All signs point to him coming off the board Night 1.

Overestimated

Dylan Moses, Alabama LB

Way-too-early mocks:

  • PFF: No. 9
  • Bleacher Report: No. 12
  • Sporting News: No. 16
  • ESPN: No. 26

Current mocks: 

  • Bleacher Report: Not listed
  • ESPN: Not listed
  • PFF: Not listed
  • Sporting News: Not listed

Moses is a strange case because even though his draft stock was high after he surprisingly announced his decision to return for his senior year, he was still coming off a major knee injury. Go figure that Moses stayed healthy, Alabama won a national title and his draft stock is seemingly worse than it was a year ago. There were 20 SEC linebackers who PFF graded out better than Moses. Why? His struggles taking the right angles in the ground game were part of that. There were times when it showed that Moses missed that all-important Year 3.

It’ll be interesting to see where the former 5-star recruit and preseason All-American ends up. Despite some of his 2020 issues, it still seems like Moses will be a Day 2 guy with that next-level speed to recover.

Trey Smith, Tennessee OG

Way-too-early mocks:

  • Sporting News: No. 17
  • Bleacher Report: No. 19
  • PFF: No. 19
  • ESPN: No. 22

Current mocks: 

  • Bleacher Report: Not listed
  • ESPN: Not listed
  • PFF: Not listed
  • Sporting News: Not listed

Smith’s health concerns weren’t something that surfaced after those initial mocks came out. The slight slip could be related to a couple of things. One, he played in an offense that collapsed. Two, he’s an interior offensive lineman who played well (No. 51 among FBS guards in PFF), but not at an All-America level. Smith could easily impress in the next couple of months during the pre-draft process like he did at the Senior Bowl, and we could wind up talking about him in Round 1 after all. But he’s on here because he went from No. 17-22 in preseason mocks to not being listed in any of the 4 latest mocks from those current publications.

Jamie Newman, Georgia QB

Way-too-early mocks:

  • Bleacher Report: No. 29
  • Sporting News: No. 29
  • ESPN: Not listed
  • PFF: Not listed

Current mocks: 

  • Bleacher Report: Not listed
  • Sporting News: Not listed
  • ESPN: Not listed
  • PFF: Not listed

To be fair, it wasn’t a foregone conclusion that Newman was going to be a Round 1 guy at this time last year. Yes, there was a ton of buzz about him playing in Todd Monken’s offense. He opted out of the 2020 season and cited COVID concerns before ever playing a game at Georgia, which made for a strange, rather inconclusive evaluation. He can stretch the field at an NFL level. But by not playing a game, we didn’t see how Newman could handle playing better competition with better surroundings. Instead, we saw impressive workout videos and a shaky Senior Bowl. The irony is that meanwhile, guys like Jones, Trask and Wilson had incredibly prolific years. Nobody would be surprised if all 3 of those signal-callers, who didn’t have much first-round love at all, came off the board ahead of a question mark like Newman.