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Will Florida State make the College Football Playoff? Breaking down the betting odds

Published: Jul 7, 2024 · 8:30 AM EDT

Florida State is coming off of a historic 13-0 regular season in 2024, and will have plenty to prove after being left out of the College Football Playoff last year.

Unfortunately for Noles fans, the team that takes the field this fall will look a lot different than the squad that ran through the ACC last season. FSU saw 10 players from last year’s team get drafted this past spring, including 6 who were selected in the top-100.

Still, Mike Norvell has built FSU to a place where it should be competing for ACC titles — and a berth in the 12-team Playoff — even in a down season.

Betting markets are not currently expecting FSU to get into the Playoff in 2024. The most-favorable odds for bettors come from FanDuel, who has the Noles to make the CFP priced at +160. Fans who want to bet against the Noles can do so at DraftKings at -180.

Here’s a breakdown of Florida State’s 2024 roster and schedule:

Florida State’s 2024 roster and returning production

As mentioned above, Florida State lost an enormous amount of talent this offseason. That was the case on both sides of the ball. Offensively, Florida State lost Keon Coleman, Trey Benson, Jordan Travis, Johnny Wilson and Jaheim Bell to the draft.

Those departures account for the vast majority of Florida State’s passing production and most of its receiving production as well. Travis was invaluable as a passer and as a leader — which was evident after he went down at the end of last season. Coleman and Wilson were arguably the best wide receiver duo in the country last season outside of LSU. Bell was impactful as a tight end and Benson was FSU’s leading rusher with over 900 yards on the year.

Defensively, Florida State lost Jared Verse, Braden Fiske, Renardo Green, Jarrian Jones and Tatum Bethune to the draft. Fabien Lovett, Kalen DeLoach and Akeem Dent also signed with NFL teams as undrafted free agents. Combined, that’s FSU’s 2 leading tacklers, 3 of its top 4 producers in tackles for loss and 3 of its top defensive backs.

The bottom line: that’s a massive amount of talent for Florida State to lose in just a single offseason. It should be no surprise that, even with FSU’s incoming transfer haul, the Noles rank 90th in weighted returning production, per Bill Connelly’s latest SP+ update on ESPN.

RELATED: Predicting the Playoff: No. 3 seed Florida State

As for its coming talent, Florida State did stabilize some things on both sides of the ball via the portal. The Noles signed the nation’s No. 7 transfer class, per 247Sports Composite rankings. Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei headlines that group, which is expected to include numerous starters and key contributors for the Noles in 2024.

Uiagalelei is coming off of a resurgent year at Oregon State. The former Clemson QB had the Beavers ranked for most of his lone season in Corvallis, and finished the year with a career-best 8.4 yards per attempt. Other incoming offensive transfers to know are wide receiver Malik Benson, running back Roydell Williams, offensive lineman TJ Ferguson and offensive lineman Richie Leonard IV.

Defensively, incoming transfers include Marvin Jones Jr., Earl Little Jr. and Davonte Brown. Brown is a veteran defensive back while Jones and Little are both former blue-chip recruits who still have considerable untapped potential.

Of course, Florida State will also be counting on some internal development for some former top recruits. Wide receiver Hykeem Williams, running back Lawrence Toafili, defensive end Patrick Payton, defensive lineman Joshua Farmer, linebacker Omar Graham Jr., and cornerback Azareye’h Thomas are amongst those who will have more opportunity at FSU than they ever have before.

Florida State’s 2024 schedule

Like every other team in the ACC, Florida State’s schedule will look a little bit different in 2024 with SMU, Cal and Stanford entering the league. The Noles will face 2 of the ACC’s newcomers — Cal and SMU — in consecutive weeks this fall. Its trip to SMU comes one week before it hosts Clemson on Oct. 5.

Florida State faces Clemson and Miami this year, who are arguably the other 2 best teams in the ACC. In November, the Noles will also take a trip to Notre Dame to play in South Bend. FSU hasn’t won on the road at Notre Dame since 2003.

Here’s a full look at FSU’s 2024 slate:

Aug. 24: Georgia Tech (Dublin, Ireland)
Sept. 2: Boston College
Sept. 14: Memphis
Sept. 21: Cal
Sept. 28: at SMU
Oct. 5: Clemson
Oct. 18: at Duke
Oct. 26: at Miami
Nov. 2: North Carolina
Nov. 9: at Notre Dame
Nov. 23: Charleston Southern
Nov. 30: Florida

Because Florida State will face Georgia Tech in Week 0 to open the year, the Noles will have 3 idle weeks this season.

By any measure, this is one of the toughest schedules any ACC team will face this year. Aside from FSU, the ACC has 4 teams included in the top-25 of ESPN’s preseason Football Power Index. The Noles are scheduled to face 3 of them plus Notre Dame (7th) and Florida (20th) in nonconference action.

Will Florida State make the College Football Playoff in 2024?

Depending on how the year goes, the ACC may only get 1 bid in the College Football Playoff this upcoming season. Historically, the ACC has typically only finished with 1 team inside the top-12 of the final CFP rankings. The 2020 season was the last time the ACC finished the year with multiple teams inside the top-12 of the selection committee’s final rankings. Excluding the COVID year, you’d have to go back to 2017 to find the last time multiple ACC teams finished in what would now be considered a Playoff position.

If that trend holds up, it would mean Florida State has to win the ACC’s automatic berth in order to reach the 12-team Playoff. ESPN’s FPI gives the Noles a 26.2% chance to win the ACC this year. That’s the highest of any ACC program, but it doesn’t translate to much value for bettors who are considering a wager on FSU (at +160) to reach the Playoff.

However, DraftKing’s price of -180 for Florida State to miss the Playoff makes a lot more sense for bettors. If you assume the ACC is a 1-bid league and FSU has a 73.8% chance (per FPI) to not win the conference title, there’s some value on fading the Noles on this prop. DraftKing’s -180 price translates to implied odds of 64.29%. That equates to an expected value of $14.80 on a $100 wager.

Of course, there are scenarios were FSU could still reach the Playoff without winning the ACC. But in a year where the Noles will be relying on so much unproven talent and have several landmines on their schedule, I’d bet against them reaching the Playoff.

PICK: Florida State to miss the College Football Playoff (-180 on DraftKings)

Spenser Davis

Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.