Will Missouri make the College Football Playoff in 2024? Breaking down the betting odds
Missouri has serious College Football Playoff aspirations in 2024 after winning 11 games a year ago.
The Tigers are considered to be a strong contender to reach the CFP, as they have a very strong offense that features one of the SEC’s best QB-WR tandems in Brady Cook and Luther Burden. The schedule also opens up for Missouri in a big way this season (more on that later).
If you’re looking to back Mizzou to make the College Football Playoff this season, the best number comes from FanDuel. FanDuel is currently pricing Missouri to make the Playoff at +184.
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Here’s a breakdown of Missouri’s 2024 roster and schedule to help determine if that’s a worthwhile wager:
Missouri’s roster and returning production
Missouri is in good shape from a returning production standpoint. The Tigers rank 17th nationally in weighted returning production, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. They are especially well-off on offense, where they rank 10th with 82% returning production. Ranking highly in returning production is crucial for a program who is hoping for another double-digit win season.
Quarterback Brady Cook is back this fall, which accounts for a decent amount of the optimism regarding the Tigers. Cook had a breakout year in 2023, throwing for 3,317 yards and 21 touchdowns. Perhaps most importantly, he averaged a career-best 9 yards per attempt after struggling with efficiency earlier on in his career.
Missouri also returns nearly all of its significant receiving production. Luther Burden, Theo Wease, Mookie Cooper and Marquis Johnson are all back in 2024. Burden is on the shortlist of the top offensive weapons in the country entering this season. Burden enters this season within striking distance of Mizzou’s all-time receiving yardage record. He’s 1,566 yards away from Danario Alexander’s all-time record.
Missouri’s offensive line includes 3 returners and a pair of highly-touted transfers. Former SMU lineman Marcus Bryant and ex-Oklahoma lineman Cayden Green are expected to start at left tackle and left guard, respectively.
At running back, Mizzou does have to replace Cody Schrader, who is now out of eligibility. Missouri brought in a pair of transfers to help in that regard: Marcus Carroll from Georgia State and Nate Noel from App State.
Defensively, Missouri doesn’t return quite as much production but there’s still plenty of experience with this unit. That’s in large part due to the work Mizzou did in the transfer portal on that side of the ball. Defensive tackle Chris McClellan, defensive end Zion Young, linebacker Corey Flagg, linebacker Jeremiah Beasley and cornerback Toriano Pride all figure to have significant — if not starting — roles for Mizzou in 2024. Incoming 5-star defensive lineman Williams Nwaneri is also expected to make an impact this fall.
Missouri did have some turnover on its defensive coaching staff. Defensive coordinator Blake Baker was hired away by LSU this past offseason, leaving Eli Drinkwitz to replace him with Corey Batoon. The Tigers are expected to run a different system under Batoon, who was previously the DC at South Alabama.
Missouri’s 2024 schedule
The SEC has a new look in 2024 with Texas and Oklahoma joining the fold. The SEC also got rid of its divisional structure, resulting in the Tigers not facing former SEC East foes Georgia, Florida, Tennessee or Kentucky in 2024.
Here’s a full look at Mizzou’s 2024 schedule:
- Aug 29: Murray State
- Sept. 7: Buffalo
- Sept. 14: Boston College
- Sept. 21: Vanderbilt
- Oct. 5: at Texas A&M
- Oct. 12: at UMass
- Oct. 19: Auburn
- Oct. 26: at Alabama
- Nov. 9: Oklahoma
- Nov. 16: at South Carolina
- Nov. 23: at Mississippi State
- Nov. 30: Arkansas
It’s hard to describe this Missouri schedule as anything other than extremely favorable. The Tigers’ toughest nonconference opponent is likely to be Boston College (although playing UMass on the road in mid-October is a curious scheduling quirk).
Mizzou also plays a weak conference slate, at least by SEC standards. Per ESPN’s FPI, Missouri faces the weakest strength-of-schedule of any SEC team in 2024. Mizzou’s schedule ranks 29th per FPI — the only SEC schedule outside the top-25.
Will Missouri make the College Football Playoff in 2024?
Missouri undoubtedly has a lot of momentum going into 2024 as it looks to reach the College Football Playoff for the first time ever. The Tigers would have made a 12-team Playoff if it had been in place last season, and they bring back a significant portion of their team that won 11 games.
That continuity is likely a big reason why SP+ is so bullish on Mizzou going into this campaign. That model gives the Tigers a 63.3% chance to go 10-2 — which is the likely threshold Missouri would need to meet in order to reach the 12-team field.
When you compare that number to the implied odds from FanDuel at +184 (35.21%) for Missouri to make the Playoff, this looks like one of the most attractive bets on the board. It equates to an expected value of $79.77 on a $100 wager. ESPN’s Football Power Index isn’t quite as high on Missouri, but even that projection (37.73%) shows some modest value ($5.93 on a $100 wager) on backing the Tigers to reach the CFP.
The only obvious red flag here is Missouri’s lack of defensive continuity because of its coaching change, but there’s plenty of positives in this profile to justify believing in this Missouri team.
PICK: Missouri to make the College Football Playoff (+184 via FanDuel)
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It’s a pretty soft schedule in SEC terms. I think they will go in with a 10-2 record.
You’re stupid and mid-zou sucks! Oh wait, I was suddenly possessed by an Ok fan from Twitter.
Until I was on twitter I thought texas fans were annoying, but oklahoma fans are worse!
You want to rile up an okie fan, tell them their team is Nebraska 2.0.
How Missouri got into the SEC, we may never know. With a schedule like they have, if they don’t make the playoffs, they should fire Drinkyowitzaway. Because of their lowly reputation and their cupcake schedule, 11-1 is what it will take to make the playoffs
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10-2 may not be good enough if Bama,Texas and Tennessee have the same records with tougher schedules. If Mizzou goes 11-1 with a victory over A&M or Bama, they’re assured a spot.
Agreed. I think there will be at least 1x 10-2 SEC team left out this year based on the schedules. OleMiss, Mizzu, and Texas all have “easier” SEC slates and should all aim to win 11 if they want in. Otherwise, 10-2 will be subject to a bias committee vote.
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I see 8-4
Appreciate the article focusing on the Tigers.
It comes down to the 50/50 games. Last year we won our share of those, two years ago we didn’t.
Because of our returning core I would favor us in those close games. Brady, Burden, and company by the end of the season seemed really comfortable in those close games. Our defense will not regress, we added a lot of talent as mentioned in the article.
Saying all that, I think when it all shakes out, we will make the playoffs.
Mizzou WILL make playoffs and go 11-1 and WILL play in SEC CG. Possibly get a conference championship on the way.
11-1 possible; 10-2 or 9-3 seem more likely. Excellent shot at the playoffs (better chance than Bama IMHO).
I think bama is anywhere from us getting smoked to possibly toss up. But I think both a&m and Sooners are definite toss ups. That may favor us. It’s been a long time since we beat bama or Georgia and I don’t think we’re there yet. Now watch us get beat in Massachusetts. Happens everytime we start as somebody.
Btw I’m nearly 75% on MU predictions.
Over 23 years
How Missouri got into the SEC, we may never know. With a schedule like they have, if they don’t make the playoffs, they should fire Drinkyowitzaway. Because of their lowly reputation and their cupcake schedule, 11-1 is what it will take to make the playoffs
Drink still under your skin apparently. After last year’s beating I understand.
Drink is the man, we still standing on business ;)
mizzoufan2011,You’re not standing on business,but,in a cowpie.
Would you care to compare Mizzou football success with ut football since MU entered the SEC? Using your logic SEC should send both tn football teams to the pac 2.
We were invited, that’s how. Duh!
“Will Missouri make the College Football Playoff in 2024?”
No.
No fan with a brain would attend or TV a so-called play-off where some teams get 1st round free-bees. ESPECIALLY IN THE PHYSICAL SPORT OF FOOTBALL. Laughing out loud. The money that will changes hands to inflict injuries on keys players will be Fort Knox in scale!!!
Speaking of fan without a brain, do you mean like the NFL does?
“No fan with a brain would attend or TV a so-called play-off where some teams get 1st round free-bees. ”
The NFL has done this for decades, she/her. Also, learn English.