SEC championship game win probabilities
Who has a greater win probability on Saturday, Alabama or Missouri? Here’s what ESPN’s Football Power Index had to say on the matter:
Alabama (81.8 percent): As far as the FPI is concerned the Crimson Tide is a heavy favorite in Saturday’s title game. Alabama has won six straight games since losing its only game of the year to Ole Miss, and it has won by double digits eight times this season. Alabama is red-hot entering Saturday’s showdown, and it has become more and more favorable in the eyes of the FPI since the start of November. Missouri has been a pest in the SEC this year, but it is easy to see why Alabama has such a heavy advantage.
Missouri (18.2 percent): On the other side, Missouri has to be scratching its head and wondering what it has to do to earn some respect. One answer is to not lose to Indiana, but unless Gary Pinkel knows how to build a time machine that seems impossible at this point. Missouri has only lost once since that game against Indiana, and it has beaten some quality teams along the way, including both of its SEC West opponents (Texas A&M and Arkansas). The Tigers are the less-talented team on paper, so it’s not hard to see why they’re underdogs, but it is somewhat surprising to see them as such heavy underdogs. Alabama has been far better at home than it has outside of Tuscaloosa, while Mizzou has won 10 in a row away from home. ‘Bama is the better team, but once again the FPI is sleeping on Missouri.