ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) forecasts the outcome of every college football game.

Ahead of Week 3, the formula has updated projections for each game, including an interesting matchup between Memphis and Florida State.

Despite Memphis’ hot start and Florida State’s abysmal one, FPI still gives the Seminoles a big edge in this one. FPI gives Florida State a 73.0% chance to beat the Tigers and finally break into the win column. This means the Tigers have just a 27.0% chance of sneaking out of Doak Campbell Stadium with a win.

To say the 2024 season has gotten off to a rough start for the Seminoles would be an understatement. The team got off on the wrong foot in Week 0 by losing to Georgia Tech as a big favorite. Then, in Week 1, the Seminoles again lost as a big favorite to an ACC opponent, Boston College.

The Tigers, meanwhile, have started off hot with wins over North Alabama and Troy. The Tigers have been floated as a possible College Football Playoff team as the Group of 5 representative, so the Seminoles definitely cannot sleepwalk through this one.

The Seminoles and Tigers have played a total of 18 times, with the Noles winning 10, the Tigers winning 7, and 1 ending in a tie. Saturday will be the first time these teams have met since 1990.

With a win, the Seminoles can get a glimmer of hope about their season outlook. The Tigers are a good team, and the Noles need all the quality wins they can get at this point.

This AAC vs. ACC matchup will kick off from Tallahassee on Saturday at Noon ET.