And then there were four. After Michigan State fell to Purdue and Wake Forest stumbled at Chapel Hill last weekend, only four FBS programs remain undefeated this season. Will Georgia, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, or UTSA stumble here in Week 11? Which college football underdogs will pull off the upset this weekend?

Let’s jump into our best bets and top college football upset picks for Week 11, backed with complete betting analysis.

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Best College Football Upsets for Week 11

Oklahoma vs. Baylor

Baylor will look to spoil the perfect run of one of the four remaining unbeatens when it hosts Oklahoma in Waco on Saturday afternoon. This game has major implications for both, with the Sooners obviously looking to wiggle their way into the top four of the CFP rankings. For Baylor, which currently sits third in the conference standings, a win here would set the Bears up with a chance to back into the Big 12 Championship Game, as the two teams it trails play each other in the final week of the regular season.

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Baylor is off a disappointing loss to a Gary Patterson-less TCU team last week, but responded after its lone other loss this season to thump West Virginia 45-20 here at home. In fact, the Bears have been juggernauts at McLane Stadium all season, sporting a perfect 5-0 record both SU and ATS. In fact, four of those wins came against Big 12 opposition, including an outright underdog victory over Iowa State with a line similar to this one.

Trends to Know

Baylor entered this season on a 15-0 ATS run as conference underdogs against opponents off a SU and ATS win and has gone 10-4 ATS as home underdogs since the start of 2011. They also have failed to cover just four of their last 16 games as underdogs on any field.

Baylor has repeatedly proven it will bounce back from tough games. The Bears are 18-6-2 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS defeat and faces an Oklahoma bunch that will be playing its first tough road game of the season.

This just Oklahoma’s third true away game, with the other two coming at Kansas State and Kansas. The Sooners failed to cover either of those outings and are now just 11-15 ATS as road favorites since the start of 2017, including 6-9 ATS in that role under head coach Lincoln Riley.

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Oklahoma enters off a bye week, but is just 7-5 SU under Riley with rest. The Sooners’ last outing was a 52-21 dismantling of Texas Tech, but that burdens them under a trend showing them as 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring 41 or more points (1-3 ATS this season). They have also dropped four straight ATS after a SU win by 21 or more points. Baylor could take advantage of those weaknesses here, as the Bears have covered seven straight at home against teams that average 32 or more points per game.

When first seeing this matchup on the schedule, it was hard not to think back to the epic meeting between these two on this field in 2019. College Gameday was in Waco and the Sooners overcame a 31-10 halftime deficit to win 34-31 in an all-time classic. Baylor is unlikely to have forgotten that collapse or the subsequent overtime loss to the Sooners in the Big 12 Championship Game a few weeks later.

Baylor vs. Oklahoma Pick

Baylor is 8-3 ATS in this head-to-head rivalry since 2011, covering four of the last five meetings at home. Look for the Bears to move to 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games against winning teams, while Oklahoma drops to 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games before playing Iowa State. The Bears stay blemish-free at home and knock the overrated Sooners from the unbeaten ranks.

Our Pick: Baylor +6.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook -114)

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East Carolina vs. Memphis

The winner of this American Athletic matchup becomes bowl eligible, and East Carolina should have the proper motivation to get it done.

This is a program which has gone six straight years without a winning season. A victory here would set the Pirates up for three straight chances to end that run. They also should know a loss here would keep them at five wins with a road game at Navy and a visit from undefeated Cincinnati as their lone remaining chances to get that sixth win needed for a bowl bid.

The Pirates enter play red-hot, winning five straight against the spread. ECU has now covered seven straight games against AAC opponents, a stark contrast to Memphis’ run of 4-11 ATS in its last 15 against conference foes. Wildly, ECU had gone just 1-26 ATS against conference opponents with winning records from 2010-2019, but is now on an 8-1 ATS run against such opposition since.

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Memphis will be here looking for bowl eligibility, as well, but the Tigers can accomplish that goal by winning without covering. They also have a road trip to Houston coming next Friday and could cruise to the finish here, rather than press on for a decisive victory.

Tigers lead running back Brandon Thomas is questionable for this one and any limitation on his game could be crippling, as he has been responsible for over 700 yards of offense thus far. The team’s next closest rusher has barely eclipsed 300 yards from scrimmage.

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Memphis has struggled in several of the roles in which it finds itself for this one. The Tigers are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as favorites, including 1-4 ATS as home favorites against FBS opposition since the start of last season. In fact, they entered the 2021 season just 2-10 ATS over their previous 12 games as favorites of more than three points versus opponents off back-to-back SU wins. Memphis, which just upset SMU last week, is also just 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games after a SU win and 1-6 ATS in its last seven following an ATS victory.

ECU enters this contest off a decisive 45-3 victory over Temple, a reflection of the team’s much-improved defense. The Pirates are allowing just 24 points per game thus far after conceding more than 30 points per game in each of the last five seasons. They are on a current 4-1 ATS run in their last five games after allowing less than 20 points.

East Carolina vs. Memphis Pick

Look for East Carolina, which has covered four of its last five road games, to extend a run of five straight games as underdogs without an ATS loss. With an 8-2 ATS record in its last 10 tries as road underdogs, the Pirates should be strong contenders to pull off the upset here and get bowl eligible for the first time since 2014.

Our Pick: East Carolina +5.5 (BetMGM -110)

Minnesota vs. Iowa

No team should envy Iowa football right now. A team that was dreaming of a CFP berth just a few short weeks ago is now sitting at 7-2 and in a four-way tie atop the Big Ten West. This Hawkeyes bunch, which has the 10th worst yards per game average in the FBS and is dead-last in that category amongst teams with winning records, will now have a new starting quarterback under center for the first time in 18 games. Starter Sam Petras injured his shoulder in last week’s 17-12 win over Northwestern, leaving sophomore Alex Padilla to take the snaps in this one.

It’s difficult to imagine Padilla turning around the nation’s 90th ranked scoring offense in a week’s time, especially one that has managed just 31 total points across its last three games (10.3 points per game), all of which the Hawkeyes failed to cover. We find it hard to swallow that Iowa deserves to lay this number here when it has not won a game by this amount since Oct. 1 and has lost five straight ATS after scoring 19 points or less in its previous outing.

Trends to Know

Iowa entered this season just 24-30-1 ATS as home favorites since the start of 2011 and faces a Minnesota bunch which is also vying for a Big Ten West title. The Gophers should be properly motivated on all fronts. They lost their perfect 9-0 season the last time they played on this field back in 2019 and have dropped six straight to Iowa. In fact, the Hawkeyes are the only Big Ten West team that head coach P.J. Fleck has never beaten.

Fleck’s squad lost at home to Illinois last week, but had not lost any of its previous eight Big Ten games ATS. His Gophers have also covered 11 of their last 12 after a SU favorite loss and eight of their last 10 after any SU defeat.

Minnesota has also suffered just four ATS failures in its last 29 games after failing to cover its previous game. The Golden Gophers have not lost any of their last six games ATS after failing to score 20 points previously and are on an 8-3 ATS run in their last 11 after conceding 19 points or fewer last time out.

Minnesota is a perfect 3-0 both SU and ATS away from home this season and is currently enjoying a 20-8-5 ATS run on the road. Two of those wins this year came as underdogs, one of which was a victory at Purdue following Minnesota’s last SU defeat. In fact, Fleck’s team is a perfect 2-0 SU this season after a SU loss.

Minnesota vs. Iowa Pick

The road team in this head-to-head rivalry has lost just one of the last six meetings ATS. Look for Iowa to slide to just 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games against conference opponents that have below a .750 win percentage and are playing with revenge.

Minnesota moves to 11-3 ATS as road underdogs since the start of 2017 in a game we expect to be decided by three points or fewer.

Our Pick: Minnesota +5.5 (BetMGM -110)

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