Why Arch Manning spurning the SEC (for now) and picking Texas makes a whole lot of sense
Arch Manning isn’t coming to the SEC after all.
Well, let’s rephrase that.
Manning isn’t coming to the SEC until Texas does. The latest that’ll happen is in 2025, which would be the No. 1 recruit’s pre-draft season.
And the plot thickens.
Manning’s commitment to Texas on Thursday was a tough pill to swallow for the likes of Alabama and Georgia, both of which just hosted the ultimate SEC legacy recruit. Arch’s announcement unofficially means that he won’t follow in the footsteps of his dad (Cooper), his uncles (Peyton and Eli) or his grandpa (Archie) by picking an SEC school.
To some, Manning picking a program that went 5-7 last year is head-scratching. Then you factor in Texas not having a first-round offensive player since Vince Young and it’s even more perplexing.
But look beyond that and you’ll see that Manning’s commitment to the Longhorns made a whole lot of sense.
Let’s start with the obvious. Was this a “Texas vs. the SEC” thing? Probably not. If Manning’s main motivator for picking a college was simply avoiding a certain conference, why then would the majority of his 3 finalists have been from said conference?
That doesn’t make sense. What does make sense is the logic behind picking Steve Sarkisian’s program instead of Alabama or Georgia.
The timing is everything. I’ve maintained from the jump that no matter where Manning ends up, he’s likely going to enter a quarterback room wherein he has to beat out at least 1 older, former blue-chip quarterback recruit.
Remember what that would’ve looked like at Georgia.
Brock Vandagriff and Carson Beck aren’t going anywhere. They’re set to battle for the starting job next year when Stetson Bennett IV finally graduates (allegedly). Beck still has 4 years of eligibility left heading into 2022 because 2020 didn’t count against anyone and in 2021, he only appeared in 3 games. Vandagriff also has 4 years of eligibility left entering 2022.
On top of that, by next spring, Beck will have had 3 years in Todd Monken’s offense while Vandagriff will have had 2. That’s not even including Gunner Stockton, who just arrived in Athens in the spring. That’s an extremely daunting situation to walk into for a true freshman. That’s much different from just having to wait out a QB like Quinn Ewers, who will be entering his pre-draft season at Texas when Manning is a freshman in 2023.
Then when you remember that Kirby Smart has had more 5-star quarterbacks leave his program than anybody else has had join their program since 2016 and yeah, it’s fair to say nothing is guaranteed. Go ask Justin Fields, Jacob Eason and JT Daniels about that.
Speaking of guarantees, think about this angle. We heard throughout Manning’s recruitment that joining the right system and play-caller was going to be critical, and understandably so. Hence, which one of these scenarios seems most likely:
- Option A) Bill O’Brien is still Alabama’s OC through 2025
- Option B) Todd Monken is still Georgia’s OC through 2025
- Option C) Steve Sarkisian is still Texas’ head coach through 2025
If we’re being honest, Option C is the most likely scenario.
Yes, again, I realize that Texas is 5-7 and the words “we’re baaaaaaaack” were said after a 4-loss season in 2018. But even in 2021, Texas put up a top-20 offense in Year 1 with Sarkisian. It wasn’t like he suddenly failed the second he stepped out of the friendly confines of Tuscaloosa.
That’s the other part worth remembering here. Yes, Alabama and Georgia can sell the idea of playing for a national title. But also think about what the Tide can pitch in terms of quarterback development. How many of those things could be credited to Sarkisian? Most of them. It was Sarkisian who left Alabama after leaving the 2 most prolific offenses in program history in 2019-20. That was with Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones. Also remember that while O’Brien was the one calling plays for Bryce Young, it was Sarkisian who recruited the 5-star phenom and developed him as a true freshman.
Alabama’s depth chart doesn’t look as stacked as Georgia’s, but the timing wasn’t ideal there, either. Jalen Milroe, who has been getting rave reviews as a redshirt freshman, also enters 2022 with 4 years of eligibility remaining. That’s assuming Young is off to the NFL at season’s end. Milroe would’ve had a 2-year leg up on Manning in O’Brien’s offense. While I didn’t necessarily think the commitment of 2023 classmate Eli Holstein was a reason for Manning to not pursue Alabama (and vice versa), I do wonder about Milroe’s timeline and whether him potentially sticking around through 2024 could’ve impacted the Tide’s chances.
If Manning’s goal is to start in Year 2, he picked the perfect place. That opportunity is most likely at Texas with the way things set up with Ewers. Manning can theoretically start against Big 12 defenses in his first season as a starter — he’ll have a different reception playing against TCU than he would playing at Tennessee — and then move on to the big, bad SEC in his pre-draft season of 2025.
Get your popcorn ready for that. Texas in Year 1 in the SEC with Arch Manning as its starting quarterback listed as the No. 1 overall pick in every single way-too-early 2026 mock draft is … well, it’s something, alright.
Is it crazy to talk about a pre-draft season for someone who theoretically couldn’t sign an NFL contract for another 4 years? Probably. But not when you’re the No. 1 recruit with the last name “Manning.”
That’s why the Louisiana native was trending nationally on Twitter within minutes of his commitment. His announcement was his first and only tweet. He doesn’t follow anyone, he has never liked a tweet and he didn’t offer up anything more than the words “Committed to the University of Texas. #HookEm.”
Texas hooked perhaps its biggest recruit since Vince Young committed 20 years ago. Within 20 minutes, Young fired off a “HookEm!!” tweet that didn’t need any context. Manning will be welcomed with open arms to his new home in Austin.
As for the SEC?
Something tells me that’ll be a touch different.
Yeah I get it it’s like playing JV before you join the varsity squad LMFAO (It’s only a joke)
^^^ THIS ^^^
I’m betting there’s 5 million reasons he went to Texas.
I wish Georgia fans would remember who we are! The way Texas seems to always stink. He will probably want to leave anyway. Not saying he will but it’s not over.
PLUS I’VE TRIED TO BE NICE ABOUT IT. BUT I’VE ALWAYS HINTED. THAT I BELIEVE GEORGIA HAS 3 QBS, POTENTIALLY AS GOOD IF NOT BETTER.
Manning has the HEIGHT and the QB DNA! Built in homemade coaching at home. Still and I say this in love. He needs to take after one of his uncles or granddad to be a great QB. As far as DNA!
Cooper Manning was a receiver wasn’t he?
I’m not putting him down. Kirby wanted him and so did I!!! But Georgia already has Carson Beck who is also 6.5 230 or so. Mr Florida former 5 star state champion!!!
Georgia already has 6.3 200+ pound former #1 Dual Threat in the country Brock Vandagriff!!!! Both have unbelievable arm strength and are extremely accurate!!!!
We know Caleb Williams is pretty fair right? Well Lincoln Riley went after Brock Vandagriff BEFORE he went after Caleb Williams!!! Then once he flipped to Georgia. Then is when the Caleb Williams hype was born!!!! Personally I don’t think their HS stats are all that comparable. Unless I’m forgetting. Brock had way better numbers!!!
LASTLY GUNNER STOCKTON……
Nobody, not Quinn Ewers or Arch Manning. Come even close to Gunner Stockton’s stats. It’s night and day. Both passing and rushing!!!
I’ll put Gunner Stockton against anyone in stats! His 177 touchdown passes and 77 touchdown runs are simply incomparable!!! And his stats would have been even better without the c….19 constant shutdowns we experienced in Georgia and around the country!!!! It’s a MYSTERY TO ME. HOW THEY DECIDE 5 STAR QBS!
GUYS WITHOUT 30% OF GUNNER STOCKTON’S NUMBERS MADE 5 STAR AND SO DID GUNNER. THEN THEY PULLED HIS 5TH STAR WHEN IT WAS CLEAR. HE WAS GEORGIA BOUND!!!!!
Actually none of our highly rated guys will have any real pressure. Because Starting Stetson Bennett saw to that!!!! Now nothing much is expected yet. They can learn the game. Like you are supposed to and play once they are ready!!!! I can’t wait to see them all ball!!!!
However I believe that Gunner Stockton is Aaron Murray with elite wheels and a much stronger arm!!!! Wait until he learns that playbook!!!! Both Carson Beck and Brock Vandagriff are different types but both can be ALL AMERICAN!!!! All 3 guys have REAL HEISMAN TROPHY TALENT!!!!
If Arch Manning gets sick of the hype and the big hits. He will likely want to transfer where he had the most fun. And that will be GEORGIA!!!!!!!!!! LOL
I believe our QB ROOM cooled him on Georgia. He thinks Ewers will probably transfer leaving it all to him. If not. Then Arch could transfer!!!!
NEVER COUNT KIRBY OUT!!!! REMEMBER WHO WE ARE. AND LETS HAVE CLASS!!!! HE HONORED GEORGIA IN HIS FINAL 2!!!!!
PS. THANKS ARCH MANNING for considering Georgia. Good luck and may GBY!!!
Negan
The kid struggled last season against a mediocre Florida team.
He may be really good, or he could really flop.
Couldn’t agree more.
Yeah, I’ve seen a lot of these over hyped players flop. We will see.
They played Berkley Prep who went 12-1 and only lost in the Championship game. I’d say that’s hardly a mediocre team. Berkeley’s RB who is a 4* committed to UCF ran all over Newmans Defense in that game. Manning didn’t have the best game but to say he played against a mediocre team is wrong.
And Berkley Prep had the number 9 player in the nation, number 2 edge rusher from the class of 23 putting the heat on all night against Newman.
Not to mention, it’s not like Newman has an abundance of elite athletes either.
Hey I’m fast and I play for Newman said at WR and Tailback. I run a 50 flat in the 40!!!! They tell me that my 50 flat is unbelievable at any college or pro level!!! MY 40 time is THE BEST!!!
I can sit and have lunch while I race! They all believe I’m incredible. Once I get it under 20 minutes. I’ll be world class for my size!!!!
PS. I can’t wait on all my offers!
Negan
My thinking concerning Arch Manning is this…He is the son of Cooper Manning & yes Cooper is a Manning, but Peyton and Eli are the kids of Archie Manning of the University of Mississippi & the New Orleans Saints. So Peyton & Eli lived football daily and were taught by a great college Quarterback who also played in the NFL. The educations that Peyton & Eli received were great in teaching tham the game/passing techniques/reading defenses, etc. Cooper was atalented athlet whose career was cut short by an injury, so Arch has not received that “Football Education” that the other two(2) received. Will he be as good as Peyton & Eli ? I doubt it, but we’ll see how it goes out there in Texas.
Hahahaha….do you not think Cooper got that same training? Do you not see that Arch has that training from 4 guys who know the game in his own family(no telling how many great QB guys have coached him)? He actually had some training from Peyton, which is one of the best in NFL history. Peyton’s training was from a guy who wouldn’t even be drafted today and certainly wouldn’t have been kept on an NFL team with his awful stats unless you want low completion percentages and TONS of interceptions.
dtanne02…No I do not believe that Arch received as quality a football education as the other two. Both Peyton & Eli lived it daily, whereas Arch has been exposed to the training periodically. Peyton & Eli were immersed in football, Arch not so much. Just wait, we’ll see.
@AFan Just a simple Google search before spewing nonsense.
“He is the son of Cooper Manning & yes Cooper is a Manning, but Peyton and Eli are the kids of Archie Manning of the University of Mississippi & the New Orleans Saints. So Peyton & Eli lived football daily and were taught by a great college Quarterback who also played in the NFL. The educations that Peyton & Eli received were great in teaching tham the game/passing techniques/reading defenses, etc. Cooper was atalented athlet whose career was cut short by an injury, so Arch has not received that “Football Education” that the other two(2) received.”
News flash: Cooper is also a son of Archie Manning numb nuts. He is the oldest of the 3 brothers, so he also received that education from Archie. I shouldn’t be surprised though. Another Bammer spewing nonsense.
I’m not getting some of the analysis. Running from competition? And why wait to play in the big league? From all we’ve heard about him, I don’t get this at all.
But… He should do VERY well hawking oil. Not that he needs it, but it’s nice.
The fan perspective looks like this: Texas last played for a championship when Arch wasn’t yet 1. Auburn has played for 2 since then. Sarkisian is 50/50 to still be there when they enter the SEC. But hey, he’s got a team of people helping and looking out for him, so they know a lot more than we do. Good luck, kid. You’ll need it.
Texas played for the title Vs Bama in 2010, they beat Bama had Colt McCoy not gotten hurt, Bama only won by a td really against a true freshman back up.
Sark put many qb’s in the league
Carson Palmer
Matt Lineart
Mark Sanchez
Jake locker
Mac jones
“Hawking oil” god the State of Alabama needs to get off the Texas oil money diatribe.
Manning watching the AL-TX game this fall: What have I done?
LOL
Big fish in a small pond?
What’s he gonna do when Texas fires Sark?
Manning will never win anything at Texas
Terrible take… Im sure they play Rice one of his years.
Manning is going tu be prepared for the nfl, not necessarily a title in college.
He is looking at the big picture.
Lol UGA and Bama will be fine. Our QB rooms are flush. Personally I like Holstein better anyway. Bama was never really in the running.
Yeah, strangely, for some reason I’m not too concerned about how this affects those two programs, lol.
Holstein is one of, if not the best in the class. Hated to see him flip. Jimbo still working on three highly rated QBs. Not worried.
Well that’s exactly why he went to Texas. He knew he would likely start as a true freshman. Very unlikely he would have at UGA or Bama.
Ewers is at Texas and he was higher rated than any of the other QB’s mentioned.
The Mannings got a guarantee from Sark the kid will start as a freshman. He will be starting by mid season. No guarantees given by Kirby or Saban.
That’s all speculation. If Ewers has a great season, Manning isn’t starting as a freshman. Even if there was a guarantee, it means nothing. It’s not like the Manning’s would go public and ever say that as they would look worse than Sark.
It’s not speculation. It’s true. Sark guaranteed it. I heard it from a reliable source. Enigmatic guy, goes by the name of Negan…
Sark has nothing to lose by starting Manning. Sark is already on the hotseat and if he has another 5-7 season it better be because he started the true freshman that all the big boosters wanted to see.
There will be a season before Manning gets on campus. Ewers play will have a huge say in this. Manning has not been guaranteed a starting spot his freshman season.
@Dawglb if that is true, I expect disaster in Austin. That situation is eerily similar to the Kyle Allen/Kyler Murray fiasco in College Station. Sumlin promised Murray’s father (Kevin Murray, former Aggie QB) that he would start day 1. When this was revealed to be a lie, all hell broke loose.
There’s no chance Arch starts his Freshman year, barring a Ewers injury. Ewers is a much better QB at this point than Manning.Manning will need some time to develop.
Kirby doesn’t play 5 star qb. Georgia isn’t a place you go if you have nfl qb potential
Jacob Eason
Justin fields
I saw Holstein and Manning last season. Holstein played against the top classification and looked better than Manning playing against a much lower classification private school.
Neither looked as good as Walker Howard.
Of course they didn’t
I wonder how this effects Ewers. Might be constantly looking over his shoulder. All I know is the last time my team had two 5 stars under center, it ended in disaster and resulted in a Heisman winner playing for OU.
Worth noting: Is this a larger scheme to make some $$$ and then flip a la Ewers? I know the Mannings don’ts need money, but rich people are rich for a reason.
The last time A&M had two 5-star QBs, they were managed by Kevin Sumlin, which was the root of the problem. Can sark manage this situation? I guess we’ll see, but at least he has a better history with QBs than Sumlin had. I think the Manning + Ewers situation will make Ewers better. It will also improve tu’s recruiting pretty quickly. Their problem hasn’t really been a recruiting problem – it’s more of a player development problem due to rotting culture. Can Sark fix that part of the equation? That’s the part that remains to be seen.
What is Sark’s “history with QBs” as a head coach? Being an OC and Offensive Analyst are completely different than being the HC. He is a .500 career head coach. Sumlin had more success than Sark by a long shot in this point of their careers.
If you think Sark is more likely to still be TU’s coach through Arch’s college career than Monken will be the OC at Georgia, well, that’s Matt Hayes-level stupidity right there.
When TU goes 6-6 this season, if he’s not fired by the meddling TU boosters, his seat will be so hot that if he stumbles an inch to start next season, he’ll be gone.
Arch just committed to the most dysfunctional program in CFB. So much for those “Manning Smarts.”
He meant Monken is more likely to get a head coaching opportunity than Sark getting fired. It was actually a compliment to Monken.
“Arch Manning isn’t coming to the SEC after all.”
Good!
It’s not like the other Mannings did much of anything in the SEC.
How many SEC titles, Heisman’s and national titles did the other Mannings win?
Zero.
One.
Ah, I’d forgotten about Peyton’s one SEC title against AU. TN went on to get destroyed by Ohio State in a bowl game.
It was Nebraska, not Ohio State.
Ronald, my man, do some research prior to spewing bs
Peyton never beat Floriduh, but thanks to the Dawgs beating Floriduh in 1997, he finally won an SEC Title his Senior Year… and then got spanked by Nebraska in the National Title Game.
TN did not play for a title. Michigan beat Nebraska for the title in 1997. TN was destroyed by Nebraska in the Orange Bowl.
Nebraska and Michigan did not play.
They were co-champions.
Lol, no one played for the Title in 1997. They didn’t do that back then.
“TN did not play for a title. Michael beat Nebraska for the title in 1997. TN was destroyed by Nebraska in the Orange Bowl.”
You don’t remember anything you moron, only what people correct you on. Then you still get it wrong! Michigan didn’t play Nebraska.
How about finding you a site where you can comment on something you MAY have a little knowledge about. It sure isn’t college football.
Michigan beat Nebraska…dang autocorrect
He should do VERY well hawking oil. Not that he needs it, but it’s nice.
Until I saw the bank draft which said $715o, I did not believe that my younger sister is actually making this money in their spare time from their computer.. she has done this in less than 16 months & recently paid loan on appartment.. Recently …….. I JoINED HIM Too. Know here what to do…
Sounds like Sis is a working girl. $7150 spread over 30 nights is about $250 a night. Nice
lol
Until I saw the bank draft which said $715o, I did not believe that my younger sister is actually making this money in their spare time from their computer.. she has done this in less than 16 months & recently paid loan on appartment.. Recently …….. I JoINED HIM Too. Know here what to do…
..
Computer generated income… her porn website
“Roince” hawking for OnlyFans
So, your younger sister is a him and has a loan on an apartment? And, it took you 16 months but a bunch of random strangers are supposed to jump right on it. Ok then.
Decent article and I guess going with Sark makes sense for QB development. Kirby will need to look to steal Lonergan from the coots.
Lonergan is a cocklock
Prolly shoulda thought that statement through before hitting the go button. BTW, Kirby’s proven time and again nothing is “locked” until he’s finished.
Considering UGA didn’t get an official visit and his finalists seem to be us, Stanford, OSU, and bama, I’m not too worried about Kirby here.
Do we even need a QB this year? Seems we have 3 with 4 years of eligibility capable of winning championships.
Fair statement if you think about it. Even Beck still has 4yrs eligibility; Vandagriff 4yrs; same with Stockton. Maybe he won’t get one. If these guys stay, maybe put the priority in ’23 elsewhere.
He’ll decommit and go elsewhere after Sark is fired for another sub .500 season.
I think Arch would be just fine with a 5-7 Texas season. That would mean that Ewers wasn’t all that and Arch can sign with what will be one of the top recruiting classes in the country.
The Good: Sarkisian is a great offensive coach. Arch will get developed. Arch will be the offense at Texas and will put up greater numbers in a lesser conference.
The Bad: Arch won’t be facing an elite defense in practice on a daily basis. He won’t win any SEC or National Championships at Texas.
Agreed … I can’t see how Texas wins a NC within the next 5 years given the recruiting has been so sub par.
They got Manning and STILL haven’t cracked the top 20 for 2023.
^^^ WUPS ^^^ I stand corrected … they’re #19.
Well … I guess that’s ….. somethin …..
Manning will improve their recruiting. Something like this will get them into the top 5 for this class when it’s all said and done. Recruiting’s never really been the problem, though. It’s that they’ve underperformed, and we’ve seen from player and coach comments that their culture is at the root of the problem. Manning’s entry can bring in an additional 3-4 top 100 players, but it cannot change their culture. That’s what Sark’s battling.
Interesting … that’s a big hill to climb for any organization. Should be fun to see how that shakes out over the next few years.
Texas finished 3rd in espn 300 in front of Georgia and Bama
Texas has been in top 5 -8 recruiting classes for the past 15 yrs, they signed the best o line class in history in 22,
You don’t know what you’re talking about
Then why does Texas suck out loud?
@MattGeorge they are #5 according to 247.
Bama is sitting at 20, A&M at 49, LSU at 44, and Texas Tech is in the Top 10. None of those rankings hold any weight at the moment.
Wish Arch well, but I believe he missed a golden opportunity. Not many high school players could attend a school that literally reveres your entire family. Whether he attains superstar status or not, he could have created and cemented his place in Ole Miss football history.
But if he didn’t want to come to Ole Miss, I respect that. There will be a quarterback who plays for the Rebels, and who knows, he may be the next “big thing.” Time will tell if Arch made the best decision.
Yeah, if only Peyton had cemented a legacy elsewhere.
Dang, imagine winning the SEC and NC under Lane and bringing Ol Miss into serious contention.
Not enough NIL money, though.
Good luck to Arch. You can’t get em all..
Dawgs will likely play Texas once while he is there. That’ll be fun
Things you can bet on.
Texas will have a Top 10 early season ranking.
They’ll under perform
The toxic environment in Texas will remain.
The coaching carousel will keep going round.
The circus goes to Austin. All the other guys on the team don’t need to worry about getting any credit for winning or any blame for losing. They are going to be talking and writing about one guy.
Oops.
I just remembered, Arch can still change his mind. Perhaps this is a publicity stunt.
Hopefully The horns and Sooners will come to the SEC in 2023 or 2024 rather than 2025. Money to pay for exit is there both programs can over come that easily
Connor getting NIL oil money for this one.
Anybody educated on how Archie Manning works behind the scenes knows why it’s Texas. Archie is a mastermind of putting his kids in the best possible position to succeed, not win championships, but create the most value while having control how it’s played out. Saban and Kirby are not those guys, which leaves Sark, who definitely will take that chance having the manning’s in his ear. This is absolutely Sark building a team totally around Arch, or he wouldn’t have committed there. The Manning’s found their man!
Very much agree. Sark’s malleable. That’s not really a risk for Manning the way it would be for other QBs. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Arch isn’t taken in the draft pretty highly based on potential alone. Even if he’s late developing, some teams will take a chance on having the next Manning QB, even if only for publicity ($$$) purposes. Sark has his work cut out for him tamping out the toxic culture embedded in that football program. I’m not convinced a single QB can fix that, and I’m not convinced Sark’s up to the job. I guess we’ll see how it plays out this year after Bama destroys them. Will they finish the season playing solid football after being dismantled, or will Bama rip out their hearts and leave them raw and wriggling the rest of the year the way Bama does so many other teams?
I prefer the latter.
Well, he will have two years of playing flag football before he plays with the big boys.
He would have started year 2 at GA as well, probably Bama too. The fact is no matter who he chose out of those was going to be a good choice.
One year, then it’s the transfer portal. Anybody agree?
No I think he sticks it out and is year 2 starter.. ewers will be aredshirt sophomore Mannings true freshman yr.. then off to the draft.. I think Sark gave dude a guarantee of being the starter in yr 2 scenerio.. He is a manning.. He can’t leave to chance he gets beat out at the position and is a backup.. from birth this dude was primed to play qb and live out the family name
If you could buy Longhorn athletics for what they turn out and sell them for what their media says they are going to turnout….year after year after year. Oklahoma is different but they’re goal is to cheat more and faster than anyone else and talk as little as possible so as not to call attention to themselves until win/loss season starts
Honestly I think this dude nailed it about how Manning will be starting year 2 at Texas and wouldn’t at Bama or UGA. Milroe gonna be a stud at Alabama.. he will be the next qb from ttown to bring home the Heisman. Beck and VGriff will compete for that job and be a 3 yr starter. It has nothing to do with money.. that kid grew up with money, he wouldve gotten paid abt the same at any of those schools.. it was just his smartest move guaranteed to play soon as year 2. Guaranteed mind you.. Saban doesn’t guarantee starting spots and Smart hasn’t been living up to the name “Smart”when it comes to his qb situation.And he grew up family of a SEC legend. no doubt he is a fan, so he didn’t duck the SEC for his first year starting for a weaker conference.. I don’t believe that. He made the right decision for him.. too much competition at the other schools and he is a manning so he can’t be the backup . Roll Tide
Oops – forgot to mention that no-one on earth has deeper pockets than Texas alumni. NIL$$$$$$$ > “depth chart”
I just hope the young man’s ability doesn’t get over hyped.