Hey, Playoff selection committee: Here are 3 reasons Texas A&M deserves the No. 4 seed over Notre Dame
I’m not “Notre Dame is overrated” guy. Trust me. I’m not.
I’ve argued that in a normal year, the Irish would’ve been in conversation for the No. 1 spot, but Alabama isn’t a normal No. 1 seed. I love how in road games, Brian Kelly’s squad won them all by at least 14 points.
That’s important context here because what I’m about to say — or already said in the headline — is going to come off like some anti-Irish agenda. It’s not.
But after the Irish got pummeled by Clemson in a neutral site, I’ve come around to the belief that Texas A&M is more worthy of the No. 4 spot than Notre Dame.
Here are 3 reasons why the Aggies should earn that final Playoff spot come Sunday:
1. Yeah, recency bias matters to the selection committee
There’s a reason why we’ve never seen a team lose its conference championship game and still make the Playoff. Notre Dame didn’t just lose. It got blown out against the Irish on a neutral site. It didn’t score a touchdown until garbage time. If the question is “who are the best 4 teams,” the selection committee has to look at where each team is at. We got a prime example of where the Irish stack up against Playoff competition.
The last time we saw that with Texas A&M was 2 months ago. What happened after that? The Aggies won 7 games in a row. All but 1 of those games was decided by at least 2 scores with the exception of the win against now-No. 8 Florida. If the selection committee is actually watching these games, it can see an Aggies squad who found its identity post-Alabama.
What’s that identity? Pounding the rock and suffocating teams, which the Aggies did on the road against an SEC team for its 6th consecutive win by double digits. We’ve seen the selection committee be much more forgiving to early-season losses if teams bounce back. See 2014 Ohio State, 2014 Oregon and 2015 Alabama. That 2014 Ohio State team beat 9 consecutive Power 5 teams to reach the field while 2014 Oregon and 2015 Alabama each beat 8 to make the field.
Besides not seeing a 1-loss SEC team get left out of the field, we’ve never seen a 1-loss Power 5 team get left out with a 7-game winning streak against Power 5 foes heading into selection Sunday. What about 2017 Alabama, who still benefitted from losing in its final game? The difference was that there wasn’t a 1-loss SEC team with 7 consecutive SEC wins (6 by double digits) to compete against Alabama.
This year, there is. And it was sitting there with the No. 5 résumé heading into the weekend.
2. The résumés are actually pretty equal … but there’s a reason why that benefits A&M
Let me show you the problem with this tweet:
So, are we going resumes or last impressions? B/c resumes aren’t particularly close.
Notre Dame
Record: 10-1
Top 25: 2-1
Above .500: 4-1
Opp win %: .478Texas A&M
Record: 8-1
Top 25: 1-1
Above .500: 2-1
Opp win % .443*LSU-Ole Miss, Bama-UF results pending.
— Stewart Mandel (@slmandel) December 19, 2020
You see, Notre Dame is really only 9-1 against Power 5 teams. Nobody cares about that USF win. The Irish have a 4-1 record against teams with “above .500” records. Two of those teams were Boston College and Pitt, both of whom only have “above .500 records” because they got a non-conference games against Texas State and Austin Peay (they opted out of the season before the SEC even started). Take those away and Notre Dame’s true record against teams with “above .500” is 2-1 … which is exactly the same as A&M.
Keep in mind that Notre Dame win against Clemson came without the Tigers’ best player, Trevor Lawrence. You might’ve heard of him. Life is a little different when you actually have to face Lawrence. The Irish found that out on Saturday.
I’d argue there’s really not a whole lot of difference between a win against a Lawrence-less Clemson team compared to a Kyle Trask Florida team.
My point isn’t necessarily that the Aggies have a decidedly better résumé. It’s that they’re awfully similar, despite what some are going to try to portray. One team had its worst game of the season right before the selection committee is trying to figure out who is most worthy of a shot at a national title.
And while you could knock both teams for having an awfully similar blowout loss to an elite foe, I’d make the case that the Aggies’ loss came to a historically dominant Alabama team in Tuscaloosa, and not on a neutral site. Like, the Alabama team who won each game by at least 15 points and closed a 10-0 regular season against all-SEC competition with an average margin of victory of 32.7 points.
Both were blowout losses, and the selection committee could rule them a draw. I’d argue Saturday’s ACC Championship was a much better simulation of a Playoff game than something we watched 2 months ago in Tuscaloosa.
And for what it’s worth, this is what the résumés looked like entering the day:
If someone convinces you this is some no-doubter about Notre Dame’s résumé, they’re probably also of the impression that beating Lawrence-less Clemson is the best win in college football so far.
3. What more could we have asked A&M to do after Alabama?
Before 2020, the ACC tweaked its rules so that it no longer had divisions and that it would have the top 2 teams play for a conference title game. If the SEC had done that, the Aggies would’ve played for a conference title instead of the 2-loss Florida team who they already beat. Playing for a conference title is a lousy, false prerequisite that some use to fit their narrative when convenient. Go ask 2016 Ohio State and 2017 Alabama about that.
In any other year, we’d look at a team who went 8-1 in SEC play with its lone loss coming AT Alabama and say “yep, that’s Playoff-worthy.” We’d look at a team like A&M, who was physically dominant on both sides of the ball, though not in a 2020 sense.
This is how the Aggies dominated teams:
This is what a team is supposed to do with its Playoff hopes on the line. pic.twitter.com/AQ8M1pXK56
— Connor O’Gara (@cjogara) December 19, 2020
Yes, I realize Tennessee isn’t anywhere near the level of Clemson. I’m not saying that. What I am saying is that the Aggies have been playing for their season these last 7 games, and with the exception of 1 (the Florida game), they showed up and won by double digits. So what if they don’t have a Lawrence or a Justin Fields at quarterback? Kellen Mond had a bad game against LSU. The guy still has as many games with 3 touchdown passes (4) as he has total sacks taken (4) in 2020. Yeah, that’s a real stat.
If A&M is going to be knocked for its style of play, that’s a silly argument. Since when is it not impressive to bully teams with a dominant offensive line with a top-10 run defense?
It’d be one thing if A&M was pulling out miracles on a weekly basis. That hasn’t happened. What instead happened was the Aggies answered test after test and did so in their own way, which was still convincing.
It’s true that the Aggies didn’t have to “prove it” against a team quite on Clemson’s level like Notre Dame did on Saturday. I get that. If the Irish make the field instead of A&M, that’s what the selection committee will say to justify it.
But if it were me in that chair, I’d give the nod to an A&M team who did everything in its power to make the field after using its 1 mulligan.
Some positive A&M articles from SDS? Bout time
Bama blowing out Fla at this time and having already beaten A&M which would be the match up, 1 vs 4 works against the Aggies.
And ND has beaten a #1 team this year. Having said that, I hope the Aggies get in over the Irish.
Florida has made it a game, looks like no blow out tonight.
Yall flip more than a flop
Neither the Aggies nor ND are playoff caliber tms. There were only 3 elite tms going into the yr (Clem, Bama, OSU) and no one else close to being in that mix. There’s still only 3 elite tms.
Whoever the 4th tm is will be the sacrificial lamb. You could flip a coin between ND and A&M. The loser doesn’t really have much of a gripe. I think they go ND because they were at least undef the entire yr and actually PLAYED in their Conf title gm. Interested to see who they pick. Ratings favor the Irish as well.
You must not have watched the B1G Championship game. tOSU is not very good.
Looky here chicken choker swamp kitty. Tiggy time is over.
ODU would beat any tm not named Clem or Bama by 2 scores. The Aggies are a “good” tm, but not close to elite.
You really must not have watched the game. Fields was terrible. I’m not sure OSU would be in the top 5 of the SEC. They only beat Indiana by 1 TD and struggled with Northwestern today. I’m not sure either of those teams would be in the top half of the SEC.
OSU would beat every SEC tm but Bama.
I watched the gm. Fields injured his throwing hand, spranged thumb. Perhaps YOU didn’t watch the gm? Or maybe it’s just your bias…..
OSU relied solely on one RB to win that game. Northwestern would be in the bottom half of the SEC. Likely Indiana would be as well. To your point though, Fields injured his throwing hand and that made them struggle? You just made the point of why a 6 game team shouldn’t get in. Those that played 9 and 10 games dealt with those injuries all season. Did tOSU even play 2 consecutive weeks in a row? Would OSU beat A&M??? Maybe, but you saying they would beat every SEC team not named Bama just seems ridiculous based solely on their performances this year. You really think Indiana or Northwestern would beat every SEC team besides Bama, because that’s basically what you’re saying.
I don’t agree. OSU is not elite, not this year. Neither is Notre Dame, but Notre Dame probably could beat OSU. A&M might be good enough to beat either one of them. There is one elite team, Alabama, and one semi-elite team, Clemson.
I agree that 4 teams is always plenty for a playoff. There are never 4, 5, or 6 teams who deserve a chance at the playoff. But I 100% disagree that Ohio State is the same caliber of team as Clemson or Bama. TAMU is the 3rd team right now. You can flip a coin between ND and OSU for the 4th spot because like you said, either one of those will just be a sacrificial lamb for Bama, Clemson and aTm.
That was hardly a beatdown today, no style points
A&M possessed the ball for 3 quarters. It was total domination.
What are you smoking bro? Y’all only had 52 yards of offense in the second half…aggies style is not flashy it winning!
Style points? We dominantly controlled the clock and stats tell you how dominant we were.
The committee is going to put ND in for two simple reasons.
1. On Sunday, when the football fans are criticizing the committee for their yet another poor selection, the committee is going to say “ND had the win against a top 4 team”.
2. Viewership.
There is no logic with the committee. They’re not going to dive in and use reasoning. They’re simply going to find an excuse for letting in a big brand school that will attract viewers.
Ohio State should be out of it than Notre Dame. A & M should be in before both teams.
Finding a 4th best team in this field is pretty tough. Losing conference championship teams haven’t made the 4 team field yet but Notre Dame could break that trend. Not impressed at all with A & M. As a conference champ OK could sneak in again as a 4th seed but they have 2 losses. If Bama holds on against UF, things seem to be setting up nicely for the College Station outfit.
Old Jeff why are you not impressed with Aggs, I’m actually really curious. If I would compare the team to anyone I’d say it was an old bama team before saben redid the offense. Nothing flashy we control the clock and the line of scrimmage. Defense has improved tremendously thought the season.
I believe TAMU is definitely one of the top 4 teams in the SEC, no doubt.Top 4 in the country? Questionable under the duress of a full season. But it’s 2020. Would like to see my Dawgs take on the Aggies and frankly would love our chances but that’s hypothetical. I’m just not sold on anybody as a convincing #4 seed. I think TAMU has a good chance to get picked unless ND bias kicks in.
I wager quite a bit and would put my $ on A&M over all but two teams.
I also think they will get screwed because of Notre Dame’s name and history.
Hopefully Florida helped make a case, I’d love Aggs to slide into number 3. I can also see the bias though for Ohio and ND.
My top 4
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Texas A&M
4. OSU
If the ACC championship was close I would have been tempted to put Notre Dame at 4. They don’t have the talent yet to compete in the playoffs. OSU had a soft schedule because of the boneheaded decision by the AD’s but they have more NFL talent on their roster than Notre Dame does.
I agree, but would put OSU at 3. I don’t want to see Alabama vs Texas A&M again, but can’t see then leapfrogging the Buckeyes at this point. I will also understand if they move the Irish to 4, based on their best win being better than the Aggies’ win over a 3 loss Florida team.
Unless Saban makes a DC change in the next few days, which he won’t, Clemson wins another NC.
I don’t think Clemson can outscore Bama.
I can agree with that top 4. After Alabama and Clemson, it’s a coin toss. A&M, OSU, ND, take your pick.
I’m going to answer #3 for you:
14 point win over awful Miss State
11 point win over awful Arkansas
13 point win over LSU team that was basically left for dead.
11 point win over deflated Auburn team that had just been skull-dragged by Alabama
What more could they have done? How about wipe the field with someone, the way that Alabama and Clemson do every week?
Notre Dame beat Clemson, who no one on the planet would rate as anything other than the #2 team in the nation. That simply trumps the ATM resume in my book. Florida has an amazing offense, and my hat is certainly off to them after tonight, but they *are* now an 8-3 team. You cannot make the argument they have the more impressive win resume.
I fully agree with you here. A&M has won every game since Bama, but none of them were strong wins. They’ve been effective, a good SEC team, but I can’t say they’re top 4.
The committee loves “the eye test”. The eye test here says ND has convincingly won a majority of their games, and their sole blowout was in the ACC championship, which was still closer than Bama vs. A&M. To that same point, A&M had their shot to dethrone Bama and lost by 28 (not saying that would be the score again, but can’t convince me they’d beat them with their style of football). ND gets the benefit of a doubt and the biggest test in the playoffs. My breakdown is:
1. Bama
2. Clem
3. OSU
4. ND
5. A&M
6. UF
Ohio State has no strong wins. Zero. They will get a spot handed to them though.
Mississippi state took a knee instead of going up 21. They only crossed the 50 yard line once.
Arkansas 3 score game till final 30 seconds.
LSU scored first time in last 30 second to make it a 2 score game.
Everyone wants flash high power offense now. How can you overlook all those games if you watched the game they were never close. It’s what happeneds when you just look at stats and don’t watch the game.
Something else working against ATM: They won’t want to give a first round rematch against Alabama, the team that beat them by 28. They’ll have to find a way to explain dropping Ohio State behind them in the rankings, when Ohio State just won a conference championship (something the committee always insists is a big deal) over a better opponent than the wretched opponent that ATM beat this week. Alabama v Notre Dame and Clemson v Ohio State will be a ratings bonanza, and print money. The interest in watching Clemson embarrass Kellen Mond again will be minimal, outside of the two fan bases.
I wouldn’t call Clemson beating A&M on a BS call that the pylon cam showed was incorrect “embarrassing Mond”. Nor was holding them to their lowest point total (by more than 20 points) on their home field all season last year. Clemson’s D is suspect this year and A&M is a different team than they’ve been the last 2 years, especially on defense.
This is one year that a two-team playoff would work. Just put Alabama and Clemson in there, BCS-style, and dump everyone else.
Yes ND beat the team ranked #1 at the time but that team was not the #1 team in reality. It was not because a 2020 Clemson team without Lawrence would be like 2007 Gator team without Tebow or 2012 Aggie team without Manzel. Trevor Lawrence is a historically great quarterback. Remember how he just picked apart Bama two years ago as a freshman? He’s a huge game change. Clemson without Lawrence that day in reality Clemson was a team outside the top 5. Clemson without TL is just a shadow of itself.
As an Aggie since 1986, I can say that I am just thrilled we are in the mix and being talked about so much. I think our team is heading in the right direction, maybe not there yet this year but I am happy with the place Jimbo has gotten us to. And before it is said yes I know my bar is pretty low. Welcome to being an Aggie.