Some early thoughts on Texas A&M's inevitable preseason ranking and the big-picture flaw it shows
There’s a decent chance that when the preseason Associated Press Top 25 is released 7 months from now, we’ll be talking about Texas A&M as a top 10 team. Some voters might even get frisky and put the Aggies in their top 6 or 7.
And therein lies a frustrating big-picture issue with college football, especially as it relates to the preseason AP Top 25.
Before I dig into the significance of preseason polls, let me stop you right there. You might have read those first few sentences and thought that I don’t believe in A&M in 2020. You’re probably expecting a rant about how I’m not a Jimbo Fisher fan and that he is still reaping the benefits of an all-world 2013 season.
This, believe it or not, isn’t the point that’s being made here today (but he does have just as many Top 25 wins and overall wins as Mark Stoops the past 3 years).
A&M will open as a top 10 team based on the logic that the Aggies, with that favorable schedule, could win 10 games in 2020. They might.
But for the millionth time, strength of schedule should have nothing to do with preseason rankings. Anticipating a team’s finish in a preseason poll is flawed voter logic. Completely.
In the same way that A&M shouldn’t have been punished with a bad preseason ranking for its daunting schedule entering the 2019 season, the same logic should be applied to the Aggies in 2020. If strength of schedule is mentioned by any voter, that’s dumb. Really dumb.
Mark Schlabach does tremendous work for ESPN, but I can’t stand that this was even mentioned in his ranking of A&M in his way-too-early Top 25:
…With nonconference games against FCS opponent Abilene Christian, North Texas, Colorado and Fresno State, the Aggies might be 6-0 going into an Oct. 17 road game at Auburn. They close the regular season with back-to-back games against Alabama (road) and LSU (home).
End this madness now.
Subconsciously, voters project because they want to look smart at the end of the season. If voters think 2019 A&M or 2018 LSU (that team had a far better roster than voters gave credit for) have daunting schedules that’ll result in 7 wins, to them, it’s justifiable to have them as a fringe Top 25 team regardless of what the previous season and the talent on the returning roster suggests. It’s an ego thing. No voter wants to look bad and have fans say, “wow, I can’t believe you thought A&M was a top 15 team” after the Aggies go 7-5.
But again, that’s dumb.
A preseason ranking should be based on how good a team is when they line up for their season opener. Voters don’t project down the road for any midseason polls, so why do it in the preseason poll?
Oh, and how do we know how good a team is in August? We look at things like the previous season, returning starters and new additions.
While A&M’s top 10 argument is sufficient in the “returning starters” category with 17 expected back, the “previous season” category falls flat. Big time.
In 2019, the Aggies had a 7-5 regular season. All 5 losses came to teams that finished in the top 15 of the AP Poll (Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, Georgia and LSU). But unlike the previous year when A&M did things like beat LSU in 7 overtimes and go down to the wire against Clemson, A&M did this against top 15 competition in 2019:
If you were keeping track at home, A&M in 5 games against top 15 teams in 2019:
- A) Led for 7 minutes and 42 seconds (out of a possible 300)
- B) Never led in the 2nd half
- C) Lost by an average of 17 points
- D) Hit 21 points once
- E) All the above
It’s “E.” It’s always “E.”
Now tell me that team deserves to start in the top 10. It doesn’t.
Yet sadly, you’ll see more writers/voters in preseason polls referencing how A&M could start 9-1 or 10-0 because of its favorable schedule.
If A&M had more moments against elite competition like it did in 2018, I’d be fully in board with the top 10 talk. But even if expected improvement comes with that roster, what suggests that it should start so high? A preseason ranking is not a win projection.
Now you may be thinking to yourself, what do preseason rankings matter? This will all play out on the field, right?
That’s true, but in a sport with an offseason longer than any other, it shapes perception. Go ask athletic directors at programs like Kentucky and Mizzou what preseason rankings mean. It sells tickets. It recruits. It gets more funding from boosters. Those things can absolutely help sell a program.
Now does A&M have an issue in those 3 areas? Nope. The Aggies are going to have 100,000 people show up on fall Saturdays, regardless of where they’re ranked in August. And they’ll be able to pay Fisher’s lucrative contract, too.
The issue is A&M’s drastic year-to-year shift in scheduling shows how flawed the preseason voting logic is. It’s the same logic that allowed 29 of 62 voters to put a 4-win Nebraska team that was No. 93 in percentage of returning production in the preseason AP Top 25 (we must never forget that happened).
It’s funny because in the pre-Playoff era, college football was criticized for not letting the on-field results carry enough weight and that too much subjectivity was involved in the sport. That’s still happening with stuff like this in the preseason poll.
If A&M really is a top 10 team, it should have to earn it by dominating that cakewalk first half schedule to a 6-0 start. Go on the road to Auburn and beat a Top 25 team for the first time since 2014. Do things that top 10 teams do. Do things that can be acknowledged by all voters, and not just the ones with flawed logic.
Until then, though, save me the explanations for why A&M deserves to be a top 10 team the next time it steps on a football field.
There shouldn’t be a poll until week 7 of the FBS season. As until then, you don’t have a good idea of where any team really stands.
There will always be preseason rankings. That won’t change, nor should it. It gives some something to talk about before the games start.
Preseason rankings generate interest and conversations. They ultimately should not carry any weight, but they are a fun CFB tradition.
They don’t carry much if any weight. Certainly nothing like b4 the playoff committee. The real poll comes out in November. Preseason polls are just conversation pieces.
“While A&M’s top 10 argument is sufficient in the ‘returning starters’ category with 17 expected back, the “previous season” category falls flat. Big time.”
I honestly have no problem with your logic and myself I would place them somewhere around 14 preseason. But lets turn that logic to another school from Austin that was ranked preseason top 10 for 2019, mostly due to the previous season and a fairly easy conference schedule. They had a terrible returning production ranking and proved to be “not back”. I like our chances much better with our returning production.
Preseason polls are useless. You can look back every year and find 4-5 teams ranked in the preseason that fall out of the AP Poll completely within the first month.
I am a believer that A&M will be a good team this year. They have a lot of returning starters, and teams like Auburn and LSU are going to be dealing with a lot of turnover. This is Jimbo’s year to prove that he was worth the investment.
While I don’t disagree with this logic, I don’t recall ever seeing a similar but mirrored article from you last season regarding the Aggies brutal schedule.
I would agree that the Aggies should have to earn their high preseason ranking. They haven’t had a 10 win season since 2012, and that’s their only one this century. They are trying to become an elite football program. They aren’t there yet.
You can’t be serious. This century? Do you know how long a century is? LMAO!!!!
Try 2012,98,and 91-94 were all this century. Being an LSU fan you should know all about the 90s and Aggies. I heard they made ya’ll back out of the home and away series for fear of more tail whippings! hahahahahahaha
I didn’t say over the last century. This century started in 2000, or 2001 if you are one of those. Nice try though.
Nope. Not going for it. Terrible save. You didn’t mean to be arbitrary. You meant exactly 100 years guy and uniformed.
Hold your L!
Believe whatever you like. Reading comprehension and mind reading aren’t your strong suits.
Holy smokes you are dense. “This century” means precisely when we started counting years with a “20” and not “19”. So LSUMC is correct. If he had said “in the past 100 years” then you would be correct.
You guys are both dense. A decade means 10 years. Century means 100 years.
“This century”,no matter when you use it, Means from 1920-2020
“This century” is synonymous with “the 21st century”. Centuries, as you astutely pointed out, are 100 years, but are commonly acknowledged in their official capacity of 21st, 20th, 19th, 18th, etc. “The past 100 years” isn’t the same as “this century”, as the “this” is referring to the “21st” century.
lol I tried to tell him. A century means 100 years. Point,blank, period. Wording it “this century” or “the past century” does not change the fact. Who brings up a century in football talk? He meant a decade and screwed it all up.
Can’t spell LSUMC without a giant L.
You can’t even get my handle right. Next time, for all of you slow learners, I’ll say the 21st century. I hope that makes y’all feel better. This century still refers to the 21st century. Over the last century would mean the last 100 years. You might want to do a bit of research before trying to correct others, but now that I know who I am dealing with, I’ll try and dumb it down for you so you don’t get confused.
Bruh did you just call us slow learners and say “try and”? No need to put “try and” when the actual action is fulfilled. Are you going to “try and” or are you actually going to “dumb it down”?
Hold another L!
LSU should be number 1 next year until someone proves they can dethrone the champs. Coach Oeaux is 11-1 in his last 12 games vs top 10 teams. LSU has the longest win streak in the country at 16 games. LSU returns more talent than all of the east combined. Face it gumps and gators tigers are king.
Oh please. You might want to stick with fantasy.
I can tell you are not from Louisiana. Switch thine image to thou proper team logo. Have you no principles of mercantilism?
Louisiana native and LSU graduate now living in Florida. Nice try though.
You proved my point Benedict Arnold. Get your gator season tickets so you can watch my tigers roll yall up in the swamp.
Children are funny.
LSUMC, don’t try to make sense to Fantasy. He has a bad case of the Dunning-Kruger Effect.
Don’t make fun of him. He obviously isn’t well. He probably thought Clemson deserved to be number one all year. Same logic.
LSU graduate? I remember reading on here you never went to LSU but you grew up a fan while in the Armed Forces. LSUMC which one is it?
I never said anything of the sort. I went to LSU on an NROTC scholarship with a Marine option. I am a Louisiana native, so I have been an LSU fan since birth.
Lies and deceit! I remember certain poster on here calling people t-shirt fans and you said something about being a t-shirt fan and never attending LSU not stopping you from supporting the football program. Just like your century posts you’re walking back on your words.
You’re just lost, but you are free to believe whatever you like.
LMAO! Whatever you say Mike H…you know very well you never attended LSU. That’s fine. You need to own it like a man tho!
I don’t know who Mike H is. You are still lost and confused.
Oh it’s you buddy. You know that I know that it’s you for sure. Have a nice day Mike. :)
You are truly an idiot. My name isn’t Mike. If it was, that would mean that I know you. I definitely don’t. My association with idiots is limited to this site, and I have never told anyone here my name.
If they really are basing it on the schedule, it’s a mistake. But I don’t think it’s a mistake because of the returning starters. I would put A&M in my top 10. Returning starters, all that experience, means a lot. I though it was amazing that they went 8-5 with such a young team.
Not to mention the fact that they held up fairly well against Clemson, Bama, Auburn, and Georgia. That was with a lot of underclassmen in first-time starting roles. They actually outgained Auburn and Georgia. They caught LSU when LSU was playing its best football, plus there was a healthy dose of the revenge factor for LSU. Underestimate A&M’s 2020 team at your own risk.
I’m sound asleep on mond.
I appreciate the sound respect for Aggie football. Hopefully, they can win big games soon with several new coaching staff and well-rounded recruits.
Before the playoff committee era, the you would a more of a point. The poll that matters doesn’t happen till November. Yea the preseason polls may set unreasonable expectations for the Aggies, but they’ll pay a price when they start losing by looking like a disappointment. That’ll offset the boost in recruiting and national perception b4 the season started. I love preseason polls. I just wish the voters put more thought into it. But big picture, shoulder shrugs….
TAMU has more pressure than any other team in the SEC next year imo. Paying Jimbo way too much money for 7-5 and he’s recruited at a too high a level for expectations to be tempered.
There was similar talk last season with rankings concerning Florida. I heard the argument made in preseason that they should not be in the top 10 and one of the explanations the “talking heads” would use was “look at their schedule”. The strength of schedule should have nothing to do with a team’s rank before they’ve played the schedule.
But there is a catch. Example: If the preseason 7th ranked team loses during the season to the 1st, 2nd, and say 5th ranked teams in the country, by the spread or less, AND beats the rest of the teams on their schedule, they will not still be the 7th ranked team. Even though the result only proved that the preseason ranking was accurate in that 7 wasn’t better than 1,2, or 5.
It’s the same even if the 3rd ranked team beats the 15th ranked team, the 15th ranked team USUALLY falls. There is way too much movement based solely on wins and losses but if we delve too deeply into metrics then we lose the interest of the average fanbase.
It’s like the claims UGA made all year of their vaunted highly ranked defense without looking at the offensive rankings of the teams they played against, whether those teams were affected by injury in positions, like say quarterback, or what those teams offenses did against other defenses. It’s just easier to nod your head and wave them through.
Are you trying to argue that our defense wasn’t one of if not the best in the country? Who besides LSU gave our defense any problems whatsoever? It got to the point where if we didn’t get a 3 & out the drive felt like a failure, even if the opposing team didn’t end up with points.
You make some good points about the logic behind rankings and some of the flaws, but your petty jab at UGA was pathetic and unsubstantiated.
Is a preseason poll’s purpose to a/predict the final poll? Or is it to b/rank the teams based on their perceived talent before game 1?
For the AP and Coaches poll, with many voters with nothing to prove , the approach used is “b”.
For individuals like Schlabach, its “a” because they want to prove their genius at end of year.
IMO,those who pick with “a” approach are correct because things like schedules or conference affiliation do affect the final poll,which is the definitive poll for each season that is recorded for history.
This article isn’t exactly untrue, but my Lord this isn’t something that applies only to Texas A&M.. UT and Notre Dame are perennially over ranked. Many little schools play patsy schedules every year and find themselves ranked way too high, but you know what, the UCF’s and Boise’s will knock off power 5’s in bowl games. Also, I have to say that coming on the heels of a season where A&M faced three #1’s and a murderous schedule this makes it sound like the Aggies never play a tough team. Give me a break bro. The Aggies could play the easiest non-conf in the country and their schedule in the SEC west will still be murderous. If they are ranked top 6 i’ll personally be shocked, but if they are, more power to em. A win is a win is a win and a loss is a loss is a loss. If A&M (or any other team) ends up with 10 wins or goes undefeated, they deserve to be playing in a big bowl. The fact is it’s just stupid to schedule too many tough non-conf games. Look at Alabama. They rarely play a real tough non conf game. For years Boise state would play one big team at the beginning of the season, and if they win it, and then go undefeated, there’s their ticket.
Jimbo is an excellent recruiter and a very good offensive coordinator. Not so good with culture and program management. The one really great run he had was with one of the most talented rosters of all time playing in the ACC, with a super talented pro style quarterback.
He’s building a talented roster at Texas A&M, but he doesn’t really have the pro style quarterback yet that his preferred offensive system requires.
Still, they have an extremely favorable schedule this year and could be undefeated when they play Alabama. Could be 11-1, or 10-2 if they lose to LSU at the end of the season, which right now looks like a toss-up game.
“which right now looks like a toss up game.”
The yankee has jokes I see. Or maybe you seriously think the defending national champions will lose to a team they just beat 50 to 7… hilarious. Here is where you yap about how LSU lost too many players and coaches blah blah blah we get it, you dont know what your talking about, you dont know LSU, and you obviously dont know SEC football if you think this big 12 school is going to beat Auburn… much less bama and dbu.
The only toss up game on LSU schedule is bama, and we can lose that game and still get back to the playoffs. See you in death valley gumps.
What are you talking about???
I’ve only seen a few preseason rankings for 2020 so far, and they all have the Aggies somewhere in the range of #17-#13. Where are you getting that the Aggies being ranked in the top 10 (or top 6 or 7) is “inevitable”? Seems like you’re just creating a hot take to be angry about and then arguing against it.
Multiple uses of the word “dumb” in this column, is a direct reflection upon the author and his writing abilities.
This article is dumb. Of course strength of schedule matters. Even in preaeason polls. Unless they stop releasing them in the preseason then it will always be a consideration. Sos for A&M is a joke like he said. Smh. Sad.