Using ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) as a guide, Texas A&M (4-0) has a 70.7 percent chance to beat Arkansas (3-1) on Saturday.


To many analysts, this game pits a good Razorbacks offense predicated on pounding the ball with two plus running backs against an even better Aggies offense predicated on spreading the ball to one of the deepest collections of receivers in all of FBS.

Add in powerful offensive lines on both sides and quarterbacks playing efficient football and you have the ingredients for lots of touchdowns.

But Kenny Hill, as well as he’s played, hasn’t had to throw against any sort of pass rush. (South Carolina should’ve been the exception, but asked about his team’s pass rush this week, coach Steve Spurrier said, “What’s that?”) DE Trey Flowers, the best Arkansas player on defense, is more of a run stopper.

Taiwan Johnson has 3.5 sacks this season and Tevin Beanum (three quarterback hurries) is due.

No matter how many points Arkansas scores, A&M will win the game if it gets a touchdown on every possession and takes care of the ball. The Razorbacks defensive backs are mismatched against the Aggies on the perimeter. The best hope for the Arkansas defense is forcing Hill to get frazzled.

And with several NFL prospects on the A&M offensive line, that’s easier said than done.