For Butch Jones and Tennessee, the future needs to be now
Since he became coach of a moribund Tennessee program in 2013, Butch Jones has preached patience.
Full of hackneyed football cliches and marketing ploys, one of Jones’ first messages was that he was going to rebuild what had become a deplorable roster “brick by brick.”
Prior to last season, Jones implored the fan base to be realistic.
“As the caretaker of Tennessee football, I also have to be a realist,” Jones said of the championship talk, according to Sports Illustrated. “I have to understand where we’re at. We’ve had two very, very solid, very good recruiting classes back to back, but we’re still not there yet from a competitive depth standpoint. We’re still a couple recruiting classes away.”
Speaking on his radio show in November, Jones insisted that “it takes six to seven years in the SEC to really build a program.”
Well, SEC coaches don’t get seven years. Jones just accepted a significant raise to $4.13 million in 2016. Team 120 will be installed as a clear favorite in the East Division come Media Days in July. His team returns as many starters as any SEC team. Last year the Vols lost four games by a combined 17 points.
It’s time to turn “bright future” into “thriving present.”
To be fair to Jones, he’s done an excellent job of marketing his version of the UT program. From social media to appealing to boosters to making former players feel welcome, he’s leveraged the resources available to him at one of the most historic football programs in the Southeast.
The roster needed a major overhaul, which Jones has completed through excellent recruiting, quick development of young players and a saturation of early enrollees.
There was a point last season when it looked like the mob may turn on Jones, who got conservative while blowing several second-half leads against teams like Oklahoma. But Tennessee closed the season with six consecutive years, including a thumping of a ranked Northwestern team in the Outback Bowl.
Now entering his fourth season, Jones (along with Mark Stoops at Kentucky) is the SEC East’s longest-tenured head coach. If he doesn’t win big in 2016, will he ever do so in Knoxville?
It’s at least a fair question to ask.
Jim McElwain won a surprise East Division title in his first season at Florida. Kirby Smart is doing an excellent job of recruiting at Georgia, and it seems like the Bulldogs will be as good as they were during Mark Richt’s final years — at minimum. Within the next three years, one of the four outsiders will rise again, at least to the level of being feisty.
Jones doesn’t want to be labeled a Marty Schottenheimer.
The long-time NFL coach was something of a turnaround artist with a career .613 winning percentage, an excellent mark at the pro level. But he plateaued when he carried a team from bad to good, holding a 6-13 record in the playoffs. Schottenheimer’s teams made the playoffs 13 times, reaching the AFC Championship just three times and losing all three.
So while Jones isn’t in much danger of losing his job in 2016, he’s reached the end of the string in terms of glorifying the future. This season will do a lot to determine whether he’s going to run this race from start to finish, or whether the perception will be that UT needs another coach to carry it over the final hump now that the turnaround is nearly complete.
And these days, once the perception goes bad it’s only a matter of months before a coaches’ job is in jeopardy.
The Vols brought in Bob Shoop presumably to upgrade what already was a very good defense. Joshua Dobbs, Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara give the team a running game that is the envy of nearly every SEC team. The hire of Mike DeBord last offseason wasn’t sexy, but it has paid dividends for the team’s offensive line.
Tennessee should win at least 10 games during the 2016 regular season. Barring some catastrophic pile of injuries, the Vols will be favored against all four SEC East teams that did not make bowl games last year as well as all four non-conference foes, including Virginia Tech at the Bristol Motor Speedway. The Vols also should be a favorite at Texas A&M.
Handle business in those games and the regular season comes down to three contests: vs. Florida (Sept. 24), at Georgia (Oct. 1) and vs. Alabama (Oct. 15). Go 2-1 against that trio and UT can even afford to be upset in one of the other games and still finish 10-2. That’s probably good enough to at least get into a tie at 6-2 atop the SEC East.
The larger question that Jones must answer this year is how he matches up in those big games. Tennessee arguably should’ve beaten two College Football Playoff teams last year but didn’t.
Jones won 11 games in 2009 at Central Michigan and then combined for 19 wins his final two seasons at Cincinnati. But he’s 3-18 in his career against top 25 opponents. Is that because, until now, he hasn’t coached a team with the personnel to beat that caliber of an opponent? That’s an acceptable justification up to this point.
But if Jones goes 1-2 in the three circled games, even if his team handles the other nine, that perception is going to start to cement itself.
So, barring an upset of an Alabama team that could enter the season ranked No. 1, Tennessee may need to sweep in the SEC East. That would require ending an 11-game losing streak to Florida, which broke the Vols’ hearts in a 28-27 thriller last year. Jones can’t afford to let McElwain and Smart relegate him to third wheel atop the SEC East, not when both of those programs figure to be better in 2017.
Tennessee is capable of contending for an SEC Championship and a spot in the College Football Playoffs this year, although any preseason ranking that’s better than No. 10 is being a little generous. This team needs to make good on that potential and do something to show that yes, UT is a true contender.
If this turns out to be just another overhyped pretender, Jones no longer will be able to say “wait ’til next year.” Lucky for him, Team 120 has the pieces to be special.
We may find out more about the program’s direction this year than at any point since Jones arrived in Knoxville.