The Tennessee Volunteers are 2-2. They’ve beaten the teams they should beat (Bowling Green, Tennessee Tech) and lost to the teams they probably should lose to (Pittsburgh, Florida).

Now we run into a stretch of games that could be toss-ups.

On Saturday afternoon, the Vols will play at Missouri. The oddsmakers installed the Tigers as a slight favorite, but might have done the opposite if the game was in Knoxville.

Let’s start with a look at Missouri’s offense. They are averaging over 38 points per game. Connor Bazelak can sling it, with 1,200 yards passing and 10 touchdown tosses in 4 games. Running back Tyler Badie not only leads the Tigers in rushing with 417 yards on the ground, but tops on the Tigers with 20 catches. Badie has 5 rushing TDs and 3 receiving scores this year. Sophomore Elijah Young, who graduated from South-Doyle High School in Knoxville, should also get his share of carries.

Moving the football hasn’t been a problem for the Tigers. Stopping their opponents has been the issue. Missouri is giving up over 450 yards of offense per game. They are ranked 115th nationally in that category. Things get even worse when you look at what they’ve done against the run. The Tigers are allowing 269.2 yards rushing per game. Only Ohio is worse nationally.

This would seem to play right into Tennessee’s hands. The Vols are 34th in the nation in rushing yards. When tailbacks Tiyon Evans and Jabari Small are getting some daylight, they can extend drives and give their own defense some much-needed rest.

The problem comes with the Vols’ quarterback situation. As has been the case the past couple of weeks, we likely won’t know who starts against Mizzou until Friday or Saturday morning. Hendon Hooker was knocked out of the Florida game, although Tennessee coach Josh Heupel said Monday that he is not in concussion protocol. If he can’t go, Joe Milton should get the start.

Milton isn’t 100%, either, and he had a couple of bad overthrows after replacing Hooker.

Tennessee has started multiple quarterbacks every year since Josh Dobbs left town in 2016. Should Hooker and Milton be on the sideline due to injury and/or ineffective play, we might see more of Harrison Bailey. Heupel doesn’t want to go that route, but he might not have a choice.

In the passing game, Mississippi State transfer JaVonta Payton had his breakout game against Florida, with a 75-yard touchdown reception. But Velus Jones was pretty much absent. Jalin Hyatt had only 1 catch. Jimmy Calloway had a drive-destroying drop. This would be as good a time as any for UT’s receivers to live up to their potential.

Defensively the Vols fare well against the run. Currently ranked 37th in the country, they’ll be put to the test against Badie and Missouri.

If the Vols are going to earn a postseason berth, they have to beat Mizzou. Missouri is coming off an overtime loss at Boston College and while the Eagles are improved as a program under Jeff Hafley, that doesn’t give Mizzou fans much confidence as they move into the meat of their schedule.

Typically the Tennessee/Missouri game is an ugly affair. With a chance of rain in the forecast, it’s possible that happens again. Both offenses are above average, so we should see a healthy amount of points.

This truly is a coin flip game. But I look at Tennessee’s uncertainty at quarterback as the difference. Mizzou knows what they have in Bazelak. He was the SEC’s co-freshman of the year in 2020 and continues to improve. If Tennessee can get its house in order and keep its QBs healthy, they’d have a much better chance to win this game and others.

But right now, that’s not the case.

Fearless Prediction time …

Missouri 34, Tennessee 31