Fearless Prediction: Tennessee vs. Alabama
The Fearless Prediction keeps rolling along but is well aware of the challenge that lies ahead. It’s the third Saturday in October. Tennessee vs. Alabama.
This has traditionally been a streaky series, and the Crimson Tide had that going in their favor for 15 years. That run finally came to an end thanks to Hendon Hooker, Jalin Hyatt and a wounded quail of a field goal from Chase McGrath in UT’s 52-49 win last season.
But there’s another streak that the Vols need to end as well. Tennessee hasn’t won a game in Tuscaloosa since 2003. That’s 9 consecutive losses at Bryant-Denny Stadium. They’ve come close a couple of times, but for the most part those meetings haven’t been close.
Does Tennessee have enough firepower to get a win over Alabama? The passing game is a concern. Joe Milton completed 50% of his passes for only 100 yards against Texas A&M, and threw an INT early in the 4th quarter. He must be better against the Tide for the Vols have a shot at pulling the upset.
His receivers need to be better too. Ramel Keyton had a couple of drops against the Aggies, including one that would have been a sure TD. This is a pass-catching group that sorely misses Bru McCoy, out for the year following ankle surgery.
The strength of this UT offense is the rushing attack. Now ranked 6th in the nation, the Vols gain 230.3 yards per game on the ground. Jaylen Wright has rushed for 571 yards on 7.1 per carry. Jabari Small and Dylan Sampson make significant contributions as well. The Vols offensive line opens massive holes.
This might not be one of Nick Saban’s best defenses, but most of the numbers aren’t that bad. The Crimson Tide are 18th in the country for run defense, 23rd in passing yards allowed and 12th in scoring defense.
Junior LB Dallas Turner is having a big year for Alabama with 7 sacks and 9.5 tackles for loss. Freshman DB Caleb Downs leads the Tide with 54 tackles.
The Crimson Tide offense finally settled on Jalen Milroe at QB. He is completing 64% of his passes with 11 TDs and 4 INTs. Milroe is coming off a shaky performance against Arkansas which saw him complete only 1 of 9 passes during a 2nd half stretch that nearly saw the Razorbacks rally for an upset.
Milroe’s top 2 options are Jermaine Burton and Isiah Bond, who have combined for 39 catches, 729 yards and 6 TDs. Senior RB Jase McClellan leads Alabama on the ground with 454 yards and 3 TDs. Fellow senior Roydell Williams has 319 rushing yards. They aren’t as explosive as last year’s offense with Bryce Young at QB, but the Tide can still move the ball down the field.
Too often during the Josh Heupel era, it has been the Vols offense winning games despite below average performances from the defense. Well, against A&M it was the UT defense that carried the offense to victory. It allowed only 3 points in the 2nd half and came away with 2 INTs in the final few minutes to clinch the win.
But that wasn’t a one-shot deal. Tennessee’s defense is ranked 3rd nationally in sacks, tied for 3rd in tackles for loss and tied for 18th in scoring defense. They are also 17th in total defense, allowing just over 300 yards a game. Except for about 10 minutes at Florida last month, the Vols defense has been terrific this season.
LBs Aaron Beasley and Elijah Herring are at the top of Tennessee’s tackles list, with a combined 73 stops. But the breakout star is sophomore edge rusher James Pearce Jr., who leads the Vols with 9 tackles for loss and 6 sacks. Against the Aggies, Pearce had 3 tackles, 2 for loss, a sack and a career-high 5 quarterback hurries. Tennessee’s defensive front has been a nightmare for opposing offensive coordinators this season.
Alabama’s weakness looks to be their offensive line. They are a woeful 113th in the country in tackles for loss allowed (7.14 per game) and 129th in sacks allowed (4.43 per game). Milroe himself has been sacked at least 4 times in his past 5 games. There should be a lot of opportunities for the Vols to add to that streak.
Tennessee isn’t alone in its futility in Tuscaloosa. Since the start of the 2008 season, Alabama is 101-6 in all games played at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
I think that the Vols defense will keep this close, and UT will lean on its terrific running game. But there will be moments when the passing game must come through for the Vols to win, and I don’t see that happening.
Fearless Prediction time …
Alabama 24, Tennessee 20