The Fearless Prediction did not expect to be licking our wounds after an unexpected error picking the Tennessee/Arkansas game. But the road to glory is not always linear. It’s time to get back on the winning side of the ledger.

Hopefully we get an easy game to pick this week.

(Looks at Vols schedule)

%&$#@!

Florida. Of course it is Florida. The Fearless Prediction has had its issues when it comes to figuring out the Tennessee/Florida game. But not as bad as the Vols trying to crack that code. How many times over the years has Tennessee gone into this game confident, yet left the field bloodied with a bruised ego and battered psyche?

Ever since James Wilhoit’s redemption kick to beat the Gators in 2004, the Vols have struggled mightily against Florida.

(Takes deep breath) …

There was the botched fake punt in 2005, the phantom personal foul in 2006, Cam Newton steam rolling Dennis Rogan in garbage time in 2007, the 2009 game remembered for Lane Kiffin saying the Vols would “sing Rocky Top all night long,” the 2014 loss in which Florida coach Will Muschamp gave an nWo style postgame taunt to Vols, the 2015 “4th-and-14,” the 63-yard bomb at the end of the 2017 game, and even last year’s loss in which Tennessee played one of its worst games of the Josh Heupel era.

The Fearless Prediction could go into more agonizing detail, but the point is that this game is typically a painful experience for UT. Starting in 2005, the Vols are a woeful 2-17 against Florida.

Yes, the Urban Meyer era teams with Tim Tebow were more talented than the Vols squads that Phillip Fulmer/Lane/Derek Dooley were rolling out, but quite often, UT has been on a level playing field with Florida or was better on paper.

But these games aren’t played on paper.

Heck, even Tennessee’s 38-28 win in 2016 took an improbable 2nd-half rally by the Vols, highlighted by Jauan Jennings’s juggling sideline catch, and UT’s 38-33 victory in 2022 needed to withstand a Florida Hail Mary attempt on the last play of the game.

For whatever reason, Tennessee never plays well against the Gators.

And following their upset loss at Arkansas, there is uncertainty in Big Orange Country. Even though the Vols are favored by 14.5 points, via FanDuel Sportsbook.

That was an unacceptable performance in Fayetteville, and yet another inexplicable road loss. Under Heupel, there have been 1 or 2 major stumbles while away from Neyland Stadium each season.

The good news for the Vols is that this game will be played in Knoxville. Neyland Stadium is once again one of the most intimidating places to play in college football, especially at night. The home crowd will help make life difficult for Gators QBs Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway. Tennessee is ranked 2nd in the nation in total defense, and that unit has only allowed opponents into the end zone 4 times this season.

But what in the name of Jim Bob Cooter is going on with the Tennessee offense?

Heupel slowed things down in the 2nd half of the Oklahoma game, and the Vols never really got on track against Arkansas. The Heisman Trophy for Vols QB Nico Iamaleava probably doesn’t need to be awarded just yet. He has looked more and more like a redshirt freshman these past 2 games, not nearly as assertive as the competition has gotten tougher.

Florida is giving up nearly 400 yards of offense per game, leaving them ranked 95th nationally in total defense. That potentially could help the Volunteers get their fast spaced groove back. In addition, the Vols are 5th in the nation in rushing offense, while the Gators are ranked 101st in rushing defense. Expect Tennessee’s Dylan Sampson to have another big outing.

Florida coach Billy Napier is still on the hot seat, but the Gators might not be as bad as we expected. They are now 3-2 after wins over Mississippi State and Central Florida.

Tennessee started 4-0, but after that Arkansas loss they might not be as good we thought.

That all said, and even with nearly 2 decades of shaky history, the Vols aren’t going to let the Gators walk out of Neyland Stadium with a win on Saturday night. This is a moment for Heupel and Co. to steady the ship.

Fearless Prediction time …

Tennessee 31, Florida 20