Fearless Prediction: Tennessee vs. Oklahoma
Man oh man … the Fearless Prediction has been waiting for this one, as Tennessee welcomes Oklahoma to the SEC. With all due respect to Chattanooga, NC State and Kent State, the Vols’ real first test of the 2024 season comes on Saturday night in Norman against Oklahoma.
We are about to find out if Tennessee is a true contender for an SEC championship and a berth in the expanded College Football Playoff.
Let’s get the obvious top storyline out of the way first.
Tennessee football coach Josh Heupel will be facing his alma mater. In 2000, Heupel was the Sooners’ QB, leading them to the BCS national championship while finishing 2nd in the Heisman Trophy race. He spent 11 years on the OU coaching staff, working his way up from grad assistant to QB coach and eventually to offensive coordinator.
But in 2014, after the Sooners went 8-5, Heupel was fired by his boss and his former coach, Bob Stoops. Heupel felt like the fall guy for what was ailing OU football at that time. This week Heupel has said all the right things, but he’s only human.
This homecoming, like the SEC itself, just means more.
In the past, Heupel has at times shown the willingness to run it up, most recently going surprise onside kick while up 30-0 against Kent State. If the opportunity arises, don’t expect Heupel to call off the dogs Saturday night.
Good thing for him, and for Tennessee fans, it looks like Heupel has built a team fully capable of winning big just about anywhere in the country.
Offensively the Vols are ranked No. 1 in the FBS in scoring offense (63.7 points per game) and No. 2 in total offense (639.3 yards per game). They are No. 3 in rushing yards at 336.3 yards per game while still throwing for over 300 yards per game.
Depth has been an issue with previous Tennessee teams. But now Heupel is in his 4th season in Knoxville, and the quality recruiting classes/transfer portal additions are really starting to pay off. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the passing game, with 11 Vols having at least 3 catches. Dont’e Thornton, Jr. and Chris Brazzell II lead the way, but Bru McCoy and Squirrel White are each capable of taking over a game.
Speaking of taking over a football game, RB Dylan Sampson looks capable of doing just that, averaging 119 rushing yards over the first 3 contests. He’s also tied for No. 1 nationally with 9 TDs.
You might have noticed that the Fearless Prediction has has yet to mention QB Nico Iamaleava. Not sure how many superlatives we can throw his way that haven’t already been mentioned, but he looks nothing like a redshirt freshman. Iamaleava is completing 72% of his passes with 6 TDs and 2 INTs. Including the bowl game, he is 4-0 as a starter … but has yet to be seriously challenged in a hostile environment. That’ll change on Saturday night, where Tennessee is favored by 6.5 points, via FanDuel.
In terms of Tennessee’s defense … good gracious. They are giving up only 160.7 yards per game (No. 2 nationally) and haven’t allowed an opponent to reach the end zone in over 16 quarters. Heck, their best player, edge rusher James Pearce, Jr. has been credited with only 0.5 tackles. Fun fact … Iamaleava has been credited with more tackles than Pearce! Iamaleava made a tackle following an INT.
All of these numbers will change the first time Tennessee is required to play their key guys for a full 60 minutes … something that might happen this weekend.
As for Oklahoma, the Sooners are 3-0, but not as impressive 3-0. A 16-12 win over Houston was followed by a 34-19 win over Tulane. Both games were tight in the 4th quarter. If OU is going to pull the upset, they’ll need sophomore QB Jackson Arnold to play at a level we haven’t seen from him. Arnold is completing 63% of his passes, but only throwing for 161 yards per game. He is leading the Sooners in rushing with 53 yards per game. Colleague Matt Hinton ranked Arnold No. 11 in his most recent SEC QB Rankings.
As a group, Oklahoma is only 108th in the country in total offense. Tennessee’s defensive line could have a big night against the Sooners’ offensive line, which has given up 9 sacks and 17 tackles for loss.
The Sooners are much more impressive on defense, ranked 23rd in scoring defense (11.3 points per game) and 38th in total defense (264.7 yards per game). LB Danny Stutsman leads the way with 33 tackles in the opening 3 games.
This game is a rematch of a 2015 classic, one of those truly special nights at Neyland Stadium. For 4 straight hours, Tennessee fans yelled themselves hoarse, a sustained noise perhaps only surpassed by the 2022 Alabama game. Baker Mayfield, who would win the Heisman Trophy a year later, led the Sooners to a 31-24 win in double OT.
The game is perhaps best remembered for Tennessee’s Butch Jones for sending out the field goal unit on 4th-and-goal from inside the 1-yard line … in the 1st quarter. Jones coached that game, for lack of a better word … scared. The moment was too big for him, and the results proved it.
I don’t see the same happening for Heupel. He and his team will not shy from the moment. It’ll be a rude welcome to the conference for the Sooners, but a happy homecoming for Heupel.
Fearless Prediction time …
Tennessee 35, Oklahoma 17
35-17 feels about right to me. Unless UT just beats itself with mistakes and turnovers, I have a hard time seeing OK keeping up. Of course, on the road in the SEC is never an easy task. Ask the GA Bulldogs last week…GO BIG ORANGE!!!
Did they really onside kick on Kent State? Why?
This was only done to make other upcoming teams to have to prepare for it. Just another thing to practice taking away time from prep on all other aspects of the game
So you want other teams to be prepared for it? It was a jerk move against a clearly outmatched opponent. Karma will catch up to coach Fat Boy soon enough
Oh hello Matt! During the off season I bought an extra large coffee mug with “Alabama’s Tears” printed on the outside. Could you come a little closer, It needs to be refilled.
That was the kicker’s choice they lined up in an asinine formation and the kicker called it.
I’m sure the kicker made the decision all on his own. Funny thing about that, the rest of Vol kickoff team sure seemed intent on recovering it, you know, for not realizing the kicker was going rogue and making Heupel look like a classless hick goober pos…
Blame it on the kicker.
It’s always the kicker’s fault.
He just whiffed it and UT was lucky as heck they recovered it.
Did you see how they wildly celebrated after they remarkably were able to recover that whiffed kick?
Thing of beauty it was.
Tennessee made Saban quit, almost put the NCAA in jail and set all time SEC records in 8 months. With this blistering pace, Kirby Dumb better sit up straight eyes forward.
Mr. Matt, Saban got scared and quit, Fulmer got Gene Stallings fired, Johnny Majors humbled the Bear. Your big boys couldn’t cheat their way past the Vols.
It was ridiculous. A very low blow to a team that was already beat. So was kicking field goals when you are ahead 65 and 68 to 0. Classless. Tinnysee showed their true colors. Yellow streak down the back.
This coming from the school of Brandon Miller and Burton-they guy who hit women?
Call what you will! It worked and it will happen anytime anywhere no matter the score. You better be ready!!
Yeah because other teams had no idea the onsides kick exists. It was classless.
The team that k1lls their own players talking ethics is pretty funny. You can talk when your players stop dying in fiery crashes
Just to put it on tape, it was a glorified scrimmage. Why not practice games scenarios that could happen latter in the season? Also it could be that they also are planning a different style onside kick if the need is there. If you you put that onside kick on tape then the analyses would have only studied that formation or technique. Planting a seed for something new elsewhere. I’ve seen some chatter from fall camp that they have different wrinkles inserted in the offense that haven’t been seen before that involve different types of play fakes that are setup from their normal offensive package. Heupel is very good a putting things on tape, and playing off what the opposing defense has studied.
So, you say it was practicing game scenarios. A different Vol fan says Gooberhead did it to make future teams have to scheme against it, and yet a third Vol fan say the kicker went rogue…ok, sure. Let’s go with that. Every team should practice on-sides kick scenarios, you know, just in case they are up 30 to zero late in the first quarter and need to change the momentum of the game…
How many players has your program k1lled?
Did they practice Hail Marys at the end of the game?
They practice those in Athens!! You better be ready
From Tennesee is bad straight to Tennessee scores too much in 3 weeks time. Our ascendency is ahead of schedule.
It was Kent State.
I thought the commentators nailed the explanation on the onside kick. Tennessee’s special teams, like the rest of the system, are always looking for weaknesses and formations to exploit. If you watch the tape, you’ll see that Kent State left that spot on the return formation completely vacant. When would be a better time to work on a on-side kick than against that poor formation? And also against a team that had already shown they can’t move the ball against our defense, and in a situation where you’re already up comfortably and possibly giving a short field to the opponent wouldn’t cost you a game. And it worked. I suppose you could argue that it was merciless, and that would hold water, except that Iamaleava only played a quarter and a half and gave way to the 2nd string QB, who threw for 2 TDs and then sat down to allow the 3rd string and 4th string QBs to play the entire 2nd half. No starters played in the 2nd half. So, it’s hard to make that accusation of “no mercy” stick. UT also offered a running clock for the 2nd half to Kent St, but they refused.
It was wide open. Kirby Dumb isn’t a stone cold killer. You’ll never understand. Try understanding why you always choke. You have to crawl before you walk.
To see how many other SEC team fans would comment on SDS. Seemed to work.
They didn’t onside kick. Internet rumor
1st qtr. 30 to ZERO 3:30 Turbeville kick 17 yards recovered by Tenn. 8 plays – 47 yards TD Vols 37 to ZERO
What really would have been cool and classy was to on-sides again. No one would expect back to back on-sides kicks.
From #1 to 9-3 ESPN projection in less than a month. VOLS ascendant, over target.
I watched the game and seen the play. I suspect the kicker is instructed to perform the onside kick when circumstances present themselves.
Kent State left the right side of the field with a huge gap in it. The play surprised me until the replay, and then it was obvious why the onside kick. I think it was a coached play and not a planned play.
Its what the chart said to do.
Why not?
They even told the tv crew before the game they were gonna do it.
“Just to have it on film”. For practice
Brent Venables has an embarrassment of riches in bulletin board material. If he can’t fire his team up with everyone picking Tennessee, he needs to change occupations. Talk about “us against the world,” “nobody thinks you are any good,” and “we are OU!” Tennessee better be ready for a fistfight, because that is what they will get on Saturday night.
They don’t need bulletin board material. This game on its own is enough.
I would argue the players with even more fire will be UT’s. They love Heupel and will want to avenge his firing (although without the firing he wouldn’t be their coach). This game will be very hard hitting, especially early.
Yeah, I would agree that neither team should need any bulletin board material for this kind of game. You’ve got 2 ranked teams, both 3-0, first game in the conference, first game in the SEC for Oklahoma, a homecoming game for Heupel, winner in great position for college playoff and the loser playing from behind with few easy games on the horizon. If you need to post Sports media writers’ comments to get motivated for this one, you’ve some bigger issues than this one game. I would even say this- given Oklahoma is playing at home and is a touchdown underdog, it should make the Sooners nervous, concerned, and even apprehensive about the game, especially given the way they allowed Houston and Tulane to stick around and have chances to beat them in Norman. That Houston game could have easily been a loss. It was a 2-pt game until under 2 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter. And that is the same Houston team that lost to UNLV 27-7 the week before IN Houston. There are reasons to have doubts about beating Tennessee. There is reason for bettors to put money on Tennessee. And many are betting Tennessee covers that -7 spread.
Reading this article, the Vols will be playing KC in February for the Super Bowl and likely favored to win by two touchdowns… Granted, they look to have a lot of what they need to win where they may have been a little thin in previous seasons. But wow- what a lack of respect for the Sooners. I do think TN wins this game and I’ll be watching to see how the new QB looks against some good defenses in the coming weeks….
Agreed 100%. Someone should tell this writer that OU is now an SEC school as well! Gotta cover both teams. I got the Vols winning by 3 but he did OU a disservice in this article.
Sickening, eh? :)
There are multiple valid reasons to expect Tennessee to win this one. The fact that the game flipped from an early Oklahoma favorite to a Tennessee favorite, by a touchdown, is very telling. Tennessee’s case is well documented. Offense has outscored opponents 191-10, which is unheard of, even against a weak schedule. (and 51 points against a pretty good NC State defense is impressive) The defense hasn’t given up a touchdown in 16 quarters.
But if you want to see why this game flipped, just look at Oklahoma’s game against Houston. You say, “Well, Houston’s defense is strong, even if their offense isn’t up to par.” Now, look at Houston’s first game of the season, at home, against UNLV. Those Rebels must have a juggernaut, eh? They scored 27 on that vaunted Houston D. Oklahoma only managed 16 points against Houston, in Norman, and they got the final 2 on a safety. As I say, there is ample reason to give such little respect to Oklahoma in this game. And it’s not that anyone is necessarily expecting Vols to run up the score, per se. It’s that they’ve seen this OK quarterback and watched this offense against average defenses and they’ve come away unimpressed. They struggle sustaining drives, even That’s the key to the game. OK offense vs UT defense. Even if the OK defense can get stops against UT’s offense (and I expect they will at times), if they can’t sustain drives, UT’s offense will score and eventually pull away. UT’s starters haven’t had to play an entire game this season, so we may find out what they can do.
I don’t think anyone is disrespecting the Sooners. If you follow the sport then you know their Oline is beat to pieces.
If you follow the sport then you know it’s hard to run the ball or throw the ball without a solid Oline (and beat up WR’s).
It is believed that Tennessee’s offense is better than Oklahoma’s offense because Tennessee has scored at will against teams they should score lots of points against and Oklahoma has struggled scoring very many points against opponents they shouldn’t be struggling to score against.
We’ll see how it all shakes out Saturday.
Idk, I think UT. The idea though that an 3-0 OK will be anything but tough at home is laughable. It’s a tough place for visitors and an 8 pm game. Whew!
As much as I respect the Sooner defense I think they’ll be on the field way too much. The Sooner oline is down to their third string center and the other players on the line haven’t been impressive. It might be tight for the first half but I don’t see how they keep UT from pulling away, someone earlier said 35-17 UT and I’d say that’s fair
I agree with you. I think the key matchup in the Vols’ favor is our deep DL against the Sooners’ banged up OL. We should be able to tire them out with our depth advantage one what should be a hot, muggy night.
That said, this is our first test, since NC State isn’t nearly as good as the preseason gurus thought. It will be interesting to see how our team responds. The Sooner defense seems legit.
4th and Butch.
Bob Stoops got a new set of tires for his career to last a little longer. (after canning Heupel in early 2015.) Oklahoma used the win to launch a CFP season. And Baker Mayfield was launched as a player and a Heisman candidate.
All because 4th and Butch.
The opportunity exists for Tennessee to turn all of that around Saturday. I think the Vols jump on top of Oklahoma early and take their time expanding the lead and taking a big road win out of Norman.
“4th and Butch”…I love it!
Let’s not forget Butch failing to go for two after going up by 12 against UF in 2015! What a doofus.
That would be a massive win for UT if they beat Okie 35-17.
If anyone knows massive, that be you don…
Because Kent State had em right where they wanted em at that point. We all know once Kent State gets down by 30, their offense starts to gain focus and gets going. Penn State better remember that this weekend if that want to beat them.
This game terrifies me. I do think UT is firing on all cylinders, and I love this team, but this is a road SEC game in Oklahoma, against…..OKLAHOMA. That place will be insane Saturday night. I think UT can certainly win, but this is in no way going to be a stress free game. As a lot of games do, going to come down to turnovers. UT’s secondary is going to finally be tested too, this let’s be honest, they have not been this far.
Games like this one are why we wanted to join the SEC. The entire State is buzzing for the game. So excited for Saturday. Heupel and Tennessee coming to Norman is a totally different level than any of the old Big 12 teams we used to play. Hopefully Sooner Magic shows up for the game.
Oklahoma, in my opinion, is an awesome addition to the SEC. Have a lot of friends in Oklahoma and their fans are classy and unlike most the nitwit fans in other SEC towns….i.e. Missouri. Looking forward to an awesome game Saturday night!
Hell yea. Gonna be fun to watch. Hope yall eat it though.
Hey Dude. Excuse my ignorance. How’d you get the OU logo on your post? Can’t figure it out. Thanks! Boomer
way too much rat poison! stay focused boyz, stay focused!
Not a real fearless prediction. TN should boat race OU even in Norman. The Vols won’t be tested until mid-Oct.
thats what a lot said about ga going to ky last week. on any given saturday…
true fuzzy, although the Dawgs don’t typically boat race KY in Lexington. I’ll be honest that most are concerned with what was displayed Sat night. I’m just hoping the trend moves toward last yr after the AU game that was also close. We shall see. It better be fixed before the 28th. Good luck Sat in Norman.
I think 35-17 is a good prediction. I’ve been predicting 37-13, which is very similar. I think the key for Oklahoma to stay in this game will come down to OU’s offense versus UT’s defense. Can they sustain drives? Unless they show something they haven’t shown to this point, I don’t think they’ll be able to keep Tennessee’s offense off the field.
On the other side, Oklahoma definitely has the best defense Tennessee has faced. I think NC State’s defense is comparable, and I actually thought the Wolfpack’s initial gameplan against Tennessee was excellent, and they executed it well early in that game in Charlotte. But Tennessee found a way to score- and they eventually hit 51 on the scoreboard. I don’t think UT hits 51 against Oklahoma, but if Oklahoma can’t sustain drives, even if they stop UT multiple times defensively, if you keep giving the UT offense chances, this group is too talented and deep to take everything away. They’re gonna score some points. And we have to keep in mind, the starters haven’t played a full game yet because they haven’t been needed, not even against NC State.
So, I’m sticking with UT37 OU13 but it could get out of hand eventually.
One other thought here- Iamaleava has been very good, thought not as good as he will be, staying in the pocket and always making the right throw. However, lest we forget, Nico’s first start was against an Iowa defense that was dominant last season. Nico didn’t have Bru McCoy or Chris Brazzel or Donte Thornton or Mike Matthews, and UT didn’t have that 12 personnel package ready either. And, as we all know, Iamaleava threw for 1 TD and ran for 3 touchdowns. He hasn’t had to do as much running, but that is in his arsenal. I expect OK to put more pressure on Nico, but he’s that’s easier said than done. Get him out of the pocket and he’s as dangerous as anyone UT has in the open field, and that’s saying something.
Should be a great game. I am really looking forward to walking around campus, taking in College Game Day and being in the stadium to watch the game. I have heard good things about the UO fans, hopefully they are true. Can’t wait for the game to start.
Welcome Sooners!
Great town and campus.
Should be a great game.
UT 34 OU 24
Wouldn’t bet on this game though.
I remember back in… Wanna say 96 or 97, some time around then. Florida came out fired up . Scored 8 points in the first quarter…. Then kicked an inside kick, and scored another TD to go up 35-0 on the last play of the the first quarter… Man that guy was nasty. I would say I miss those days, but we lost way too many of those games…. It’s been a long time and I’m an old guy so some of these details could be a bit off but it was something along those lines….
28 points
“this is a road SEC game in Oklahoma”
I love it. Oklahoma & Texas in the SEC is going to be great for the conference and the sport.
dawgs2021, onside kick up 30?Practice during a dame not scrimmage.Not for running up the score.Did that anyway.Asked yhe Kent State coach if he would want a continous running clock for the entire second half.He said no.
Vols BETTER bring it like Bama ‘22 and NOT florida EVERY year.