Fearless Prediction: Tennessee vs. Purdue in Elite 8

The Fearless Prediction has never been happier about being wrong.

The Tennessee Volunteers came up with perhaps their best performance of the season in an 82-75 victory over Creighton in the Sweet 16. For only the 2nd time in program history, the Vols will play in the Elite 8.

UT only turned the ball over 4 times Friday night. They forced 9 turnovers and scored 10 points off those giveaways. Tennessee collected 12 offensive rebounds. They had 17 points off fast-breaks, while allowing only 2 fast-break points.

Dalton Knecht did Dalton Knecht things, scoring a team high 24 points including a couple of clutch treys in the 2nd half when Creighton went on a run and pulled to within 3 points. Josiah-Jordan James had 17 points, including 3 triples and went 6-for-6 from the line.

Tennessee got the job done without one of their best players; 5th-year senior guard Santiago Vescovi missed the Creighton game with the flu, which forced UT coach Rick Barnes to use his bench a lot more than he wanted. In the first half, Barnes stole some key minutes with little used JP Estrella, Freddie Dilione V and Cameron Carr.

It was a masterclass from Barnes, who can certainly make his case as the greatest coach in the history of Tennessee’s men’s basketball program. During his Tennessee tenure, the Vols have 2 SEC championships, 1 SEC Tournament title, advanced to the Sweet 16 3 times and Elite 8 once.

With a win on Sunday, that argument will be over.

But as big of a challenge of the Bluejays were, there is a bigger challenge ahead in the Purdue Boilermakers, who are a 3.5-point favorite, via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Zach Edey, a 7-4 All-American, has been a problem for everyone. He’s averaging 24.6 points and 12.1 rebounds per game. The probable back-to-back National Player of the Year has been his typically dominant self during this NCAA Tournament, averaging 26.7 points, 16.3 rebounds and 2 blocks per game in wins over Grambling, Utah State and Gonzaga.

The elephant in the room, of course, is how officials treat Edey — and how they allow opponents to defend him.

He hasn’t fouled out of a game this season, and only on 4 occasions did he even reach 4 fouls. In fact, he’s fouled out only once in his 4 years at Purdue. At the same time, Edey is often the beneficiary of the whistle, as he’s averaging over 11 free throw attempts per game this season. Jonas Aidoo, Tobe Awaka and Jahmai Mashack will each get their chances to keep him from dominating the glass.

But as good as Edey is, the Boilermakers have quality supporting pieces around him. Point guard Braden Smith had 14 points, 15 assists and 8 rebounds in Purdue’s win over Gonzaga. Lance Smith and Fletcher Moyer reach scored in double digits in that Sweet 16 game as well. The Boilermakers shot 57% from the field.

As good as Tennessee was against Creighton, they’ll have to be better against Purdue to get to their first Final Four.

This is a rematch of a game that took place in Maui in November; Purdue won 71-67. But I don’t know how much we can take from that game. First, it was a free-throw contest, with both teams combining for 78 attempts. It’s hard to imagine 52 fouls being called in the rematch.

Related: Tennessee residents, if you are interested in wagering on the NCAA Tournament, here are some Tennessee betting apps to dowl0ad.

Also in that game, Tennessee point guard Zakai Zeigler came off the bench and played 28 minutes. Barnes was still easing him back into the lineup after he suffered a torn ACL the previous March. Zeigler is 100% and played all 40 minutes against Texas and Creighton.

Is there history between these programs and these athletics departments? Yes, there is. Back in 2019, in the Sweet 16, Purdue beat Tennessee 99-94 in OT. That game is best remembered for a controversial call at the end of regulation, when Vols guard Lamonte Turned fouled Carsen Edwards on a 3-point attempt with UT leading by 2 points. Edwards made 2 of the 3 free throws, and Purdue won in the extra session. Purdue also could have been called for 5 seconds on the inbounds pass leading up to Edwards’ shot. It’s a loss that haunts Tennessee to this day.

There’s also football! In the 2021 Music City Bowl, UT RB Jaylen Wright was ruled not to have crossed the goal line on 4th down in OT, despite his knee not being down nor the play being whistled dead by the time got in the end zone. Purdue went on to win 48-45.

Yes, there are demons. If the Vols are going to make their first Final Four, they’ve got to slay them all.

Which leads us to this Elite 8 game.

The Fearless Prediction picked Creighton to beat Tennessee, was proven incorrect, and now finds itself in a precarious situation. Pick Purdue and earn the wrath of #VolTwitter before perhaps the most important game in the history of the program? Or pick Tennessee, jumping back on the bandwagon after not trusting the Vols to beat Creighton?

(Long pause)

(Longer pause)

Folks, like Michael Scott, the Fearless Prediction is not superstitious … but it is a little ‘stitious.

Fearless Prediction time …

Purdue 67, Tennessee 65