Fearless Prediction: Tennessee vs. Texas A&M
The Fearless Prediction took a well-earned week off, spending our time spanning the globe to bring you the constant variety of sport. But now we are back … tanned, rested and ready to pontificate on all things Tennessee football.
On Saturday the Vols host Texas A&M for only the 2nd time since the Aggies joined the SEC in 2012. The 1st meeting in Knoxville was Jeremy Pruitt’s final game as Tennessee’s head coach, at the end of the COVID season of 2020. That was a social distancing crowd, so this weekend will be Texas A&M’s true introduction to Neyland Stadium.
Let’s talk about the Aggies first, and boy oh boy is there a lot to talk about.
Texas A&M (4-2, 2-1) is coming off a 26-20 loss to Alabama, a game the Aggies led 17-10 at the half. Over the final 30 minutes, head coach Jimbo Fisher made a number of questionable decisions. The most egregious call came with 3 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter. Facing a 4th-and-1 from the Alabama 45 with the game tied at 17, the Aggies punted. The ball went into the end zone, and then the Crimson Tide marched 80 yards and scored the go-ahead TD. The Aggies never led again.
That was some serious Butch Jones energy in playing not to lose. Now, the Aggies must regroup only 7 days later for a trip to Knoxville.
Max Johnson has taken over for injured starter Conner Weigman at quarterback and has had some good and some bad moments. Johnson is completing 61% of his passes with 7 TDs and 2 INTs. Evan Stewart and Ainias Smith have combined for 53 receptions and 834 yards, with Stewart adding 4 scores.
The Aggies don’t run the ball especially well, averaging 144.8 yards per game. That places them in a tie for 79th with … Arkansas State. (What was I saying about the Butch Jones energy these days in College Station?) Le’Veon Moss is tops on the team in rushing, averaging 65 yards per game.
The Aggies secondary was torched by Alabama WR Jermaine Burton, who caught 9 passes for 197 yards and 2 scores. Tennessee’s passing game has had its struggles, but Vols QB Joe Milton surely saw a bunch of things to exploit this week during film study.
One thing that both teams have going for them is defensive pressure on their opponents. These are the top 2 squads in the country in sacks, with the Vols collecting an average of 4.4 per game and the Aggies picking up 4.3 an outing. In terms of tackles for loss, Texas A&M is tied for 1st in the FBS with 9.5 per game, with Tennessee coming in 3rd at 9.4. Both offensive lines will be tested on Saturday afternoon.
The No. 19 Vols (4-1, 1-1) will have to find a way to limit LB Edgerrin Cooper, who is having a monster year for the Aggies. He leads them in tackles (41), sacks (6) and tackles for loss (12). Former 5-star recruit Walter Nolan, who played his senior year of HS football about 15 minutes from the UT campus at Powell, has 4 sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss for the Aggies.
While the Aggies struggle running the football, Tennessee thrives in that aspect of the game. The Vols are gaining 231.1 yards per game on the ground, 7th best in the country. Jaylen Wright, Jabari Small and Dylan Sampson are as good a 1-2-3 punch as you’ll find in the sport.
In the passing game, the Vols will have had 2 weeks to adjust to life without Bru McCoy, out for the season with a right ankle fracture. That means more chances and stress on Squirrel White and Ramel Keyton. Tennessee survived without Cedric Tillman for much of the year in 2022, and it hopes to do so without one of its top playmakers once again.
Defensively, senior LB Aaron Beasley continues to impress, while sophomore DL James Pearce Jr. is getting better each week for the 21st ranked defense in the FBS.
The Vols have had a week to get healthy while the Aggies just played a very physical opponent. “Checker Neyland” will be at its rowdy best this weekend. UT fans haven’t seen their Vols lose since November 2021, as Tennessee is riding a 12-game home win streak. On the flip side of that coin, Texas A&M has lost their last 7 true road games.
I don’t think those streaks are going to end this Saturday.
Fearless Prediction time …
Tennessee 31, Texas A&M 24