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I’m not going to pretend to know how healthy Tennessee will look Saturday night at Ohio State in the first round of the College Football Playoff. All I know is that Bru McCoy, Dont’e Thornton, Squirrel White and Dylan Sampson were injured against Vanderbilt. That’s a ton of skill-position guys who would ideally play a significant part in Tennessee knocking off Ohio State instead of being banged up.
Consider that all the more reason Nico Iamaleava’s time to become a Tennessee legend needs to begin now.
Let’s call it what it is. Iamaleava has been a good, not great quarterback in his redshirt freshman year. You could point to the bad (3 consecutive first halves without a point and an average of 23 points in true road games) and you could point to the good (a 10-2 record with the No. 4 QB rating in the SEC). If you’re calling Iamaleava a bust, you’re probably doing so while wearing a Georgia hat. If you’re calling Iamaleava “Peyton Manning 2.0,” you’re probably wearing orange from head to toe.
Manning, of course, was criticized for his inability to beat Florida and play for a national championship. Iamaleava already beat Florida, albeit a different version of the Gators than the juggernaut Manning faced. Now, Iamaleava is tasked with doing something that Tennessee hasn’t fared well with during the 21st century: pulling an upset in a monumental game.
Disagree with that? Well, from 2007-21, Tennessee lost 39 consecutive games vs. AP Top 10 teams. The 2022 win against No. 3 Alabama, wherein the Vols were 9-point underdogs, snapped that streak. Tennessee later beat No. 10 Clemson in the Orange Bowl, and this season, Iamaleava led the Vols to a win against No. 7 Alabama. The AP Top 10 drought is a thing of the past.
But Tennessee beating Ohio State would still qualify as “historic” because of where that game is being played. The Vols are searching for their first road victory vs. an AP Top 10 team since that 2006 win at No. 10 Georgia. As in, back when true freshman Matthew Stafford got garbage time reps after Tennessee pulled away late (Stafford will turn 37 years old in a couple of months). For what it’s worth, that UGA team went on to post an 8-4 regular season. That’s a touch different than facing a top-10 Ohio State team in Columbus in late-December.
It’s well-documented the urgency that Ryan Day and the Buckeyes are facing with their $20 million roster after a demoralizing Michigan loss knocked them out of the Big Ten title game. If Iamaleava can play a major role in sending the Ohio State faithful into an even greater frenzy, yes, “legend” status is on the table. You could argue that it would be Tennessee’s biggest postseason victory of the 21st century.
Shoot, let’s take it a tiny step further; it would be Tennessee’s biggest postseason victory since ’98.
Don’t get it twisted. Beating Ohio State wouldn’t mean that “feeling like ’98” should become the new expectation.
Then again, what if Iamaleava lights up the top scoring defense in America in Columbus? Would that suddenly move Tennessee into the conversation as more of a true title contender instead of being perceived as one of the Playoff teams in the “happy to be there” group? Certainly. And for what it’s worth, the oddsmakers have Tennessee in the “happy to be there” group. DraftKings has the Vols with the 7th-best odds to win it all at +2,500.
What’s the best thing that can overcome longshot odds to win a title? Elite quarterback play.
Well, elite quarterback play with a dominant defense would be the winning combination. The latter shouldn’t be much of a question. The Vols rank No. 4 in FBS in scoring defense and yards/play allowed. That’s the good news for Iamaleava. With a Tennessee defense that allowed 20 points once all year (don’t forget that Vandy returned the opening kick for a TD in that game to reach 23 points), this doesn’t need to be a game in which Iamaleava is asked to lead some 45-point effort.
But to become a legend with a win in Columbus, he’ll need to make big-time throws on 3rd down and Tennessee will have to capitalize in the red zone. Doing that against an Ohio State defense that ranks No. 1 in FBS in red-zone defense will be no small feat. Actually, let’s add a little more context to that. At 55.2%, Ohio State doesn’t just have the best red-zone defense in America (in terms of scoring percentage allowed); it has the best red-zone defense of any FBS team since 2010 Boise State had a 52% red-zone scoring clip allowed.
Are you starting to think potential “legend” status isn’t just hyperbole? You should.
At this time last year, Iamaleava geared up for his first career start in the bowl game against Iowa. It was a nice opportunity for the decorated freshman to get some valuable reps and perhaps give Tennessee some offseason optimism about a quarterback unlike any in recent memory. He accomplished that. If he can lead the Vols to a victory in their first Playoff game, an up-and-down first season behind center will be a distant memory.
In July, Tennessee offensive coordinator Joey Halzle raved about Iamaleava’s understanding of the offense before he entered his first full season as the starter. “Of course, he’s got to go do it with live bullets for 17 games,” he added (H/T Joe Rexrode). Iamaleava did his part to give Tennessee a 13th game with a path to 17.
Live bullets will be flying on Saturday night in Columbus. It’ll take a legend to avoid them en route to victory.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
