Point spread for Tennessee-Kentucky game sees big swing following opening release
All those tall buildings in Las Vegas are there for a reason, the gambling experts in the desert know what they are doing.
Having said that, it’s very unusual for a point spread this late in the season to shift as much as the Tennessee-Kentucky line has shifted since opening on Sunday.
When the line was revealed, Kentucky was favored by four points at home over Tennessee. Just two days later, that line now favors the Volunteers in many sportsbooks. Depending on the sportsbook you prefer, the Volunteers are listed as a 1-point favorite on the road in Lexington by many sportsbooks while the game is listed as a Pick ‘Em in other sportsbooks.
That’s quite the swing considering no major player announcements have been made since the line opened, such as the return of an injured quarterback, although Jeremy Pruitt indicated on Monday that Brian Maurer will be available this week for the Vols.
Enter your email below and we will send you the Tennessee records graphic to be used for your phone background.
By adding your email address, you agree to receive emails with Tennessee football related news. You can unsubscribe at any time.
However, Maurer likely doesn’t have the name recognition to significantly shift a point spread in Las Vegas at this point in his career.
One factor that may play a part in the line shifting is Mark Stoops’ name being front and center when it comes to the speculation with the coaching opening at Florida State. How big of a distraction that will prove to be for the Wildcats remains to be seen but it’s worth monitoring this weekend as the Kentucky-Tennessee game has quickly turned into an important game for each program this week.
A few weeks ago, both programs were on life support when it comes to making the postseason but following a streak of wins by both teams, this game could prove to be the difference between staying home or traveling for bowl season.
As a Tennessee fan, I sure hope the team isnt listening to the fans and media, who seem to be treating this game almost like an easy win.
This will be a very tough game. Kentucky is coming off a bye week, coming off of a big win, and the record of the past 32 years between these 2 is completely meaningless.
We definitely need this game, but its going to take a real good effort. The guys in blue are on scholarship, too.
Don’t know what fans and media you listen to but I haven’t heard the first fan or media member declaring this to be an easy win. Any fan who says that has been under a rock all season and just came out after the SC game. I think the team and coaches are pretty sure this won’t be a cakewalk. If not all they have to do is watch a replay of the last game we played vs a WR at QB which just happened to be ky as well. It will absolutely be a war and IMO the two defenses will control the game with the winner being 13-10 or something like that.
i dont mean easy win, i didnt quite know how to phrase it….but i do feel like there is a lot of assuming going on and people talking about how they think we’ll finish 7-5, etc. I just get the feeling a portion of this fan base is getting ahead of itself. And watching the Sportsource Sunday morning, those guys on there seemed way overconfident about this game.
I think it’s important to first explain what sportsbooks try to do. They don’t have the big fancy buildings in Vegas because they know who will, rather they are trying to get 50% of bets on each side so that they are guaranteed a profit from the small slice (called the juice) that they take from each bet (every one in a while sportsbooks will dare people to bet on a “public team” but this certainly doesn’t qualify).
This line moved for one reason: a bunch of people bet Tennessee. Usually lines are initially set by metrics. In this case, the early movement was likely a combination of a little sharp money (professional bettors usually screen bets before they get to the public, so sharps usually won’t shift lines that we already know too much) and a ton of public money that went Tennessee’s way.
As UK fan and avid gambler, I hope the public pushes this further. The public being on one side generally doesn’t work out too often, I personnally thought a line of UK -3.5 was pretty fair. Now that they are an underdog (not mention stewing for revenge from last season) and I’ll be putting a significant bet on the Cats.
What you say is all true, but at the same time, I dont think their goal is generally to get tons of action on one side. I would think they would want equal action on both sides in most cases. I think they probably anticipated the line dropping from 3.5, but I’d guess they didnt expect this large a swing, this quickly. I’m not an expert on this by any means tho.
I see it essentially as a pick-em, myself, maybe UK by a point or 2. I’m looking forward to it. Should be a good one.
1st rule of betting, never bet on your own team
Truth. I NEVER bet on UF games. It’s stressful enough to watch, don’t need extra stress added due to $$ riding on the game.
That is the GOSPEL
I don’t like the shift to having a home underdog. That being said, unless UT doesn’t score, UK better pass well.