SDS Crystal Ball: Predicting every game for Tennessee football in 2020
Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball prediction series concludes today with Tennessee and Vanderbilt (9 a.m., ET). If you missed any of the 14 previews, you can read them here.
We can play both sides of the Tennessee fence, if you want.
Let’s start with the negative. Georgia State. BYU. Getting outscored 112-30 and losing all 3 games to the big rivals. Zero wins against ranked teams.
Now, the positive. Six-game winning streak. Eight wins total. Just 16.4 points allowed on average in the final 8 games (I subtracted Alabama’s touchdown when Jarrett Guarantano went rogue). A +3 win improvement for Jeremy Pruitt in Year 2. A top-10 recruiting class.
Did I leave out anything?
I suppose all of those things coupled with the fact that Tennessee lost some key pieces to the NFL (Darrell Taylor and Jauan Jennings being the most important ones), is why there hasn’t been out of control hype in Knoxville throughout this offseason. There’s at least some pushback. That’s why the Vols were a borderline Top 25 team in the polls, and that’s why there’s not a growing sense that they’ll stand in the way of Florida or Georgia in the SEC East.
Dare I say, expectations are about where they should be in Knoxville. That in itself feels like a win for Pruitt. Most teams that go winless in the SEC don’t cap off an 8-win season just 2 years later. Of course, Year 3 will be a totally different set of circumstances with a 10-game conference-only schedule and quarantines to account for.
Speaking of that …
What to make of this bizarre start
I’ll say this. There’s a chance that a month from now, we’ll have totally forgotten that Tennessee had a September practice in which a reported 44 players were unable to participate. Some of that was COVID-related quarantines:
#Vols were supposed to scrimmage today but they just practiced because 44 players were out. Only 30 offensive players were available.
— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) September 5, 2020
Again, that could be an afterthought if Tennessee gets off to a good start. I’m not here to say it’ll absolutely prevent the Vols from being successful early on (I have them winning the opener). Honestly, none of us has seen an entire sport have to deal with something like this. This is uncharted territory.
But I can’t imagine any way in which it helps Pruitt’s squad. That’s what I come back to. At a time when teams are hoping to have some sort of routine with learning assignments and getting the muscle memory part of the game back after this strange offseason, having that many players sidelined won’t allow that to happen in the way Tennessee had probably originally hoped.
What can overcome that? Players who find ways to stay disciplined during quarantine and after returning from quarantine. Coaches who successfully game plan and use that extra time to scout opponents wisely. Perhaps it’s as simple as catching an opponent when it can’t overcome those things.
If Tennessee looks like it forgot how to tackle in the opener, we’ll naturally wonder if this depleted camp had something to do with it. Welcome to 2020.
Jarrett Guarantano with the same OC will be …
Improved. I truly believe that. I don’t think he’ll be one of the SEC’s top 3 quarterbacks or anything like that, but I think we’ll see the best version of Guarantano. It’s been well documented that this is his first time at Tennessee in which he doesn’t have a new coordinator with a new playbook to learn. That in itself should help Guarantano process some of those reads a bit quicker.
If we’re being honest, though, I don’t think he has the ceiling of a Kellen Mond or even a Kyle Trask. At least not at this point of this career. I don’t know that the decision-making will ever get to the level where we see it for a month at a time. At this point, there’s at least some of the “he is what he is.” Guarantano is a tough kid who has been through a lot. I can’t sit here and say I have full confidence in him to start and excel every game of the 2020 season.
Entering Year 4 as a starter, we’re still waiting on him to have his first 3-touchdown game. He has 1 career rushing TD, which makes it hard to think that the scrambling game will ever be a legitimate part of his repertoire when blocks break down. He has 1 career game with 25 rushing yards.
The best-case scenario is that Guarantano becomes a guy who can avoid those devastating sacks/fumbles, keep his completion percentage high and stay healthy. Maybe that yards per attempt number can creep closer to 9.0 and we see Guarantano play with the sense of urgency that we saw at times down the stretch in 2020.
Jarrett Guarantano dime + Marquez Callaway box-out rebound = nice touchdown for Tennessee. pic.twitter.com/l0E8Pr3vfx
— Jesse Simonton (@JesseReSimonton) November 10, 2019
Go in with the right expectations for the Tennessee senior, and understand what he is as long as he’s running Jim Chaney’s offense.
Is there a Jauan Jennings on that roster?
Of course, Guarantano’s ceiling would be a bit higher if we knew his go-to target had a legitimate replacement. Jennings was the alpha dog in that locker room. His presence, time and again, was exactly what the Vols needed to not go into a total tailspin last year. His route-running was exceptional, and it allowed him to be a safety blanket of sorts for whoever was throwing passes for Tennessee.
With both Jennings and Marquez Callaway off to the NFL, Tennessee doesn’t return a single player who had multiple receiving touchdowns last year. Josh Palmer is expected to take on the role of lead wideout after recording 941 receiving yards on 57 catches over the past 2 seasons. He finished on a strong note last year with 16 catches for 247 yards in his final 3 games.
Maybe the next Jennings is somewhere in a freshman class that’s been getting plenty of buzz in fall camp. Jalin Hyatt and Malachi Wideman both made an early impression, as did Jimmy Holiday, Dee Beckwith and Jimmy Calloway. Obviously, none of them will be expected to individually account for the 59 catches and 969 receiving yards that Jennings had in 2019.
Pruitt loaded up on receivers in his 2020 class knowing there would be a lot of turnover. Could it be the difference that keeps Tennessee’s passing game afloat?
Game-by-game predictions
Week 1: at South Carolina (W)
Both teams know how important this opener is. It’s a winnable game that Pruitt and Will Muschamp would love to have under their belts knowing what awaits with this loaded schedule. Despite the quarantines, I’ll still take Tennessee to show up ready to roll on the road. I like the odds of Pruitt’s defense, which should be solid in the middle with promising young guys like Henry To’o To’o and Quavaris Crouch, going sideline to sideline to shut down this new-look South Carolina offense with Mike Bobo. Eric Gray takes over in the second half in a close “first to 20” sort of game.
Week 2: vs. Mizzou (W)
If the Vols have a 2019 repeat, hey, who knows about this one. Perhaps Mizzou can catch Tennessee early enough before it finds its defensive identity. But I don’t expect that to happen. After a strong start from Larry Rountree III and Tyler Badie, it’s the Vols’ ground attack that takes over down the stretch. Again, it’s a heavy dose of Gray behind that talented offensive line that puts Eli Drinkwitz’s SEC road debut out of reach.
Week 3: at Georgia (L)
Oh, the hype if we get 2-0 Georgia vs. 2-0 Tennessee. We need a showdown like this. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Georgia come out a bit slow fresh off the Auburn game and perhaps in an effort not to show Nick Saban the entire offense a week before the Alabama showdown. Bryce Thompson, rocking No. 0, gets interception No. 1 and quiets a reduced Georgia crowd before the half. But unlike the first 2 weeks, Georgia’s offense does the heavy lifting in the second half to put the game away. A long Demetris Robertson touchdown serves as the exclamation point on what’s easily Todd Monken’s best offensive half to date. Tennessee’s Georgia losing streak continues.
Week 4: vs. Kentucky (L)
You know what doesn’t seem fun? This 3-week stretch for Tennessee. This Kentucky game is going to be a challenge from start to finish because of how good the Wildcats are up front. This game follows a somewhat similar script to last year’s physical, low-scoring battle in which Pruitt’s defense once again gives Eddie Gran’s offense problems for most of the game. But this time, Terry Wilson leads a late drive to set up a walk-off field goal for a 20-17 victory in Knoxville. Mark Stoops improves to 2-6 against Tennessee.
Week 5: vs. Alabama (L)
Having to face Nick Saban after an Alabama loss to Georgia seems … unfair? This isn’t a revenge game so much as it is an “Alabama is angry” game. Against that decorated Tennessee offensive line, the Crimson Tide front 7 has its best performance of the year in Knoxville and prevents any sort of an upset from happening. Saban makes sure that a week removed from losing to a former assistant for the first time, he doesn’t fall to another. Tennessee can’t find an answer for Najee Harris and it’s 14 in a row for the Crimson Tide.
Week 6: Bye
Week 7: at Arkansas (W)
For the first time in over a month, Tennessee is in the win column. This is the type of game when Chaney really lets the ground game do the heavy lifting. Ty Chandler gets in the mix in what turns out to be a fresher Tennessee team than the one that struggled against Alabama before the bye. As long as depth isn’t an issue with quarantines or opt outs, the Vols should take care of business at Arkansas to get back to .500.
Week 8: vs. Texas A&M (L)
Swing game. Big time. This could easily go to whichever team is healthiest. If all things are relatively equal, I like this matchup slightly better for A&M. A reduced road crowd will help Kellen Mond, who is 3-6 on the road in conference games under Jimbo Fisher. But I wonder about Mike Elko’s defense putting pressure on Tennessee to throw. That’s advantage A&M. In a low-scoring game that’s up for grabs in the 4th quarter, A&M gets the go-ahead score thanks to a Mond touchdown pass to Jalen Wydermyer. A late Guarantano interception seals it for the Aggies on the road.
Week 9: at Auburn (L)
Yet another swing game. I’m trying not to let my impressions of that 2018 Auburn disaster impact how I break down this game because both teams are much different 2 years later. Auburn was a mess offensively, Jeremy Pruitt completely out-coached Malzahn that day. Could that happen again? Sure. But this is exactly the type of game that we should see some interesting wrinkles with Anthony Schwartz. Two weeks removed from a bye with Malzahn eager for some revenge on Pruitt, this is going to be a diverse offensive game plan that he and Morris come up with. Auburn’s offense finds just enough ways to keep Tennessee on its heels and escapes with a win. Another close loss for the Vols rules out the possibility of a winning regular-season record.
Week 10: at Vanderbilt (W)
Tennessee finally put the clamps on the Commodores last year. That was against a Vandy squad that had 3 NFL-caliber players on offense. This year, with those guys gone and a new offense and an entirely new quarterback room, I’ll go with Tennessee having a big day defensively. Aubrey Solomon and Darel Middleton have career days stopping the run and getting pressure on the quarterback to fuel another 3-possession win against Vandy.
Week 11: vs. Florida (L)
Tennessee fans are pumped that Florida has to travel to face Tennessee in the cold this year. While I don’t expect this rare Florida-Tennessee clash in December to have quite the same feel as that famous 2001 showdown, I do believe it’ll be plenty entertaining. Florida will be playing for a division title, and Tennessee would love nothing more than to play spoiler. That nearly happens after some back and forth thanks to a 150-yard rushing day from Gray, but Kyle Trask keeps his cool with his back against the wall, and he silences a reduced capacity crowd at Neyland.
2020 projection: 4-6, 4th in SEC East
#Vols
I had no intention of penciling Tennessee in for a losing record. I really didn’t. I could easily be dead wrong on this. I admit that now.
I don’t think there’s much separation between Kentucky and Tennessee. If the Vols win that game with my projections, they’d both be 5-5 and Tennessee would be 3rd in the East. But I have fewer questions about the Wildcats. That’s why I view that as a major potential swing game that could shape how this season goes in Knoxville.
But in this conference-only slate, yeah, I have legitimate concerns with how Tennessee will handle it. A 2-10 record vs. AP Top 25 foes in the past 3 years doesn’t bode well, nor does the aforementioned struggles against the rivals. I mean, 3-27 against Alabama, Florida and Georgia in the past decade screams “let’s see it before we believe it” with those 3 matchups.
And yeah, if I’m projecting today, I’d take Auburn, Texas A&M and Kentucky to win those matchups in 1-possession games. Those are obviously swing games that Tennessee can absolutely win if we see things like Guarantano emerge, Gray become an All-SEC back and edge rushers develop. If the Vols win 2 of those 3 games, that’ll suggest they’re taking the next step.
For all I know, that’s exactly what’s in store. Perhaps by midseason, I’ll be banging the drum for Pruitt to be SEC Coach of the Year for how he handled these atypical circumstances with such a daunting schedule. This has been a somewhat difficult team to figure out during the Pruitt era from week to week, and maybe a conservative preseason expectation will go up in smoke with a win against a rival or a 4-1 start heading into the bye week.
But for now, I’ll stay on the lower end of Tennessee’s 2020 potential.
Perhaps. All bets are off this year, but I would be remiss if I didn’t mention Kentucky has won 2 times against Tennessee in the last 35 years… a 5.7% win rate. To put another way, UK has won twice since Regan’s first term.
The only thing that matters is this year. Time to write new history.
I wish Kentucky success this year, for sure. Just not when they come to Knoxville this fall.
The Kentucky dominance is something that goes back to the General Neyland days. Coach Neyland had a chilly relationship with Bear Bryant. He told Bryant that his coaching methods would never work against his teams, and that he’d never beat Tennessee while he was there.
He was correct. Neyland was undefeated against Bryant, and even Bear’s great 1950 team at UK lost to Tennessee.
Ray Mears tried the same type of psychology against Kentucky on the hardwoods and was the only SEC coach to ever have a winning record against the Wildcats.
I love this rivalry. The football and basketball games have always been quite entertaining.
ajkxtox
I doubt anything will change.TENNESSEE wins.
Man, you’ve flipped your lid! The Vols gonna win way more than 4 games and so many of your upset choices are ludicrous!!! UT is gonna make you look like a novice unknowlegable fan smokin me*h!!! Your money mom dropped you on the head as a bady and then your Dad walked over and kicked you!!
I have despised the big orange for the majority of my life. As a UK fan who grew up less than 10 miles from the state line, I’ve endured an absolute owning of my favorite team by my most hated opponent. In 2011, I even proposed to my wife in the stands of commonwealth at halftime asking if she would “watch UK lose to Tennessee with me for the rest of our lives” (We won for the first time in my lifetime). The last several games between them have been progressively competitive as UK is building nicely under Stoops while UT is still trying to find an identity post Fulmer. Last season, something changed for me. I don’t know if it was the surprisingly poor start for UT that made me feel sorry for them, or maybe the fact that I actually kind of like Pruitt. But after watching such a hard fought game between the two teams last year where both sides showed so much grit and heart, I hate to admit that I might not oppose the idea of a Tennessee resurgence quite as much as I would have in the past. The truth is, a good team in Knoxville is good for the SEC overall. If we lose again this year, I’m sure I’ll go back to despising them per usual.
I don’t disagree with much of the article but Connor didn’t even mention the O line and running game which will be the strength of the offense. The D will also be solid. The trenches win a lot of games and we will be the best in the trenches in a long time. Anything is possible and I am really concerned with the number of players missing practices. Still I find it hard to believe we can only muster 4 wins. That will be extremely disappointing and will start warming up jeremys seat. I still believe the 2022 season is my first true judgement year but I expect no repeat of the uga st and byu games. I also expect a win over at least one of the big 3 and a win over either auburn or A&M.
Agree. So many in the media are hyping uk for it’s o-line, of which by all accounts will likely be pretty good, while tn will likely have just as good of an o-line and have a rb (gray) that may be a top 5 rb in the league.
the only way i see tn losing to uk in week 4 is if they’re beat-up from the week prior w/ uga.
i see tn being competitive in at least 2 of the 3 of the ‘big 3’ you mentioned, but i don’t see them winning one. possibly next year though
You are wrong. UT will be KY and Auburn. And will have a legit shot at UGA and UF.
*beat*
I’m glad you’re all knowing.
Here’s an off-the-wall thought: With so many COVID cases so early, Tennessee may be building its own mini-herd immunity, which could make them one of the healthiest teams around during the season.
Guarantano should be a bit better; it just may not matter with an inexperienced wide receiver group.
South Carolina is a very dangerous game for Tennessee because Muschamp is an excellent DC who has the pieces to stop what should be a good Tennessee running game. And the combination of Collin Hill/Mike Bobo effectively gives South Carolina an experienced quarterback running Bobo’s offense.
Alabama and Florida will have too much offensive firepower. Georgia’s defense should snuff out Tennessee’s running game. Even though that offensive line should be good, better defenses will load up against the run and force Guarantano to throw to his inexperienced receivers.
I’m looking forward to watching the Kentucky-Tennessee game, which I expect to be a line of scrimmage slugfest.
I keep thinking Auburn’s going to be pretty good.
I have an utter lack of faith in Texas A&M, and a lot of faith in Tennessee’s coaching staff.
It will not be “cold” enough to matter in Knoxville in November. The average daily high is 63°F.
I have little doubt w/ your off-the-wall thought. i can easily see certain coaches pulling off that trick in an effort to gain a potential advantage. i believe orgeron and lsu may have done it, of which he foolishly may have let the cat out of the bag in publicly commenting how many of his players had actually contracted the virus….while i could see a number of other coaches w/in the league also exposing their players prior to the season, but potentially concealing the results, granted they were asymptomatic.
Could be a really dumb idea if Orgeron did that, given the potential negative impact on aerobic capacity.
Louisiana has been a hot spot for the virus so that’s one reason so many LSU players were infected.
Most of Tennessee’s players are held out for contact tracing.
Although I am not a Tennessee fan , I am true to the SEC and a good Tennessee is good for the SEC . With that being said , Go Big Blue ! And , good luck Vols on a great season .
Classy and I hope the Cats win every game they play outside of Knoxville this season.
Stoops is the real deal too.
This is completely wrong. Winner of that UK-UT game is going 7-3. UT has UKs # so I have us going 7-3 with losses to UGA, UF, and Alabama.
I would be surprised if Tennessee went 4-6. I could see them going 7-3 with losses to bama, uga and uf. I also wouldn’t be surprised if they upset one of those teams this year. For prediction purposes I think I’ll go with 6-4 with losses to UGA, Bama, AU and UK.
Auburn has great OL/DL coaches and DC. But with the new OC schema, I think Kentucky and Tennessee will present all kinds of problems for the tigers this season, especially in the trenches.
Both games will be too close to call!
This may be O’Gara’s most realistic prediction in this series. I’m thinking 5-5 at best, and that’s giving them the Kentucky game, which could go either way. But I can’t agree with Tennessee fans who are expecting wins over Auburn and/or A&M. Tennessee was not very competitive against Florida or Georgia last year, so I wouldn’t expect them to suddenly improve to the level of Auburn, and A&M has everyone coming back. This program has finished 7th or 8th in the SEC in recruiting over the last four cycles. It’s a middling SEC program.
As bullish as I am on the Cats this year, until proven otherwise UT will beat UK. I hate to admit it and think UK is better, we just can’t seem to ever beat the Vols.
Agree, until the Cats prove they can beat the Vols even occasionally then you have to pick the Vols for the win. Go CATS!!!
Please hire some decent writers.
Pretty obvious this guy has no idea what he’s talking about. This is more regurgitated trash from the Butch Jones era.
If you guys can’t tell this team has turned the corner and is on par with the Auburn’s and A&Ms of this league—let alone Kentucky (AT HOME) you need to be writing on Peewee Football.
7-3 with losses to Alabama, Georgia, and EITHER A&M, or Florida but not both.
Turned the corner from weak to mediocre.
Don’t be bitter cuz Burreaux is gone! Doesn’t suit you Bayou Bengals.
Fact is, we weren’t mediocre—at least talent wise—under Trash Can Jones! Ask Florida, and 2016 UGA. (Please insert Dobb-Nail Boot comments.)
We certainly were from a COACHING standpoint, which is how you beat the aforementioned Gators and Dawgs, but lose to South Carolina and VANDY—with a trip to the Sugar Bowl on the line.
Tennessee isn’t a mediocre team and hasn’t been since we lost to BYU last year: they were down several significant role-players in the early season and got bit for it.
They won’t repeat those mistakes this year and our offense is moving from a liability, to a unit capable of holding their own in an offensively challenged conference.
Again, I look for this team to do no worse than 7-3 this season and with a couple breaks could surprise and go 8-2.
Our depth is much better this season and even with losing 3 of the best 5 players on Defense, I expect our defense to be better.
With Cade Mays almost cleared, we will have a great OL and critical depth there. WR’s will be better than most credit.
QB play SHOULD be better and will be a wildcard.
TE is biggest concern.
Tennessee is not on par with auburn or A&M..
You guys need a real head coach.
Sorry, but after this season, you’ll be back in the market for one.
And A&M pushed all-in with the wrong guy; Jimbo will end up falling about as flat as Malzahn and be lucky his agent got him such a heavy buyout in that $75 million contract.
Real coach? He’s won an sec championship, been to amother, been to a national championship, beaten saban 3 times.. not sure what you mean. Look, I like Pruitt and I think he’ll do good things at Tennessee but right now they are not on par with auburn or Tennessee.
Your recruiting has been middle of the pack by SEC standards. You couldn’t compete with Florida or Georgia last year. And now we’re supposed to believe you are going to beat Auburn and A&M? Tennessee is smack in the middle of the SEC, not above average.
4-6 after a 2-0 start would not be a good outcome
Absolutely would.
They’ll go at least 6-4–at the VERY least—and could get to 8-2.
O’Gara needs some help with his analysis.
Lol 6-4 is most definitely NOT our floor. Have you SEEN our brutal schedule? We will only be favored in about 5 games (maybe 4) and some of the games we are favored in are predicted to be close (USCjr we are only 3 pt favorites).
Realistic floor (less than 5% chance) is more like 3-7. Ceiling 8-2.
Sorry you have such a poor take on the Vols.
I stand by my statement and after watching them win a tough one in Carolina firmly believe this team will overachieve and surprise some folks this year.
Tennessee’s offensive line is impressive this year…with the addition of Cade Mays(if SEC approves) makes their o-line really good. Tennessee football will look a lot like the Fulmer years…more running plays.
I will go on the record right now and say we finish better than 4-6. This might be the easiest prediction I have ever had to make.
I think a 4-6 record is certainly possible, considering the schedule. That being said I think we finish at 5-5 or 6-4. It is critical that we get off to a 2-0 start. I think we find a win out of the Kentucky, Auburn, A&M, or Florida.
Bingo. I could see us getting 1 upset (Aub or tamu?), but dropping one we are a favorite in (uk or uscjr). All 4 of those games look like 60-40 type games.
But hoping for 6-4 by taking care of business vs the lessers.
Herd immunity won’t matter if the opposite team can’t play because of covid
Guarantano struggled a little bit last year for a stretch, but it was noticeable that he was getting better. Having the same OC will definitely help him considering he’ll know all the same plays and will have a year under his belt with this coach. Hopefully this year he will project to his highest potential.
Also, not having a Juan Jennings might be a little tough, but new stars come out every year. Hopefully there will be a star that rises for Tennessee this year!
Please,what are you smoking?TENNESSEE will not lose to Kentucky.I think 2 loses,Alabama and Texas A&M.
TENNESSEE 8-2 and a trip to SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME.
GO TENNESSEE
Please Connor,find a more suitable job.
Go Tennessee
Week 3: at Georgia.
Oh, the hype if we get 2-0 Georgia vs. 2-0 Tennessee.
I can hear it now, it’s going to be the Kirby Smart needs to free Cade Mays game. Blah blah blah…
Beat Vandy, Arkansas, Mizzou, SC , combined that with the crappy team the Community College of Knoxville beat last year and you have a program that is the true definition of mediocre.
Connor, care to do the same thing but using “win shares” (just put a win percentage to each game and add them up).
They are far better than binary W/L predictions and I’d like to see how you predict each game by odds of winning.
Thanks!
Conner O’Gara asked, “Did I leave anything out?”
Yes, Conner, You did. That little orange team isn’t likely to get a HUGE lucky break like they caught last year when they caught KY just after the boys in BLUE had lost both their #1 & #2 QBs. The Wildcats are leaving the women & children at home this year, & they’re coming – “hunting for Bear”… I wouldn’t want to be wearing orange… NOT THIS YEAR!!!!!!
I like the annual ‘this is Kentucky’s year to beat Tennessee, something they do about once ever 2-3 decades, because it’s time they do’ followed up with the ‘well, Tennessee will lose to Georgia, Alabama, and Florida because that is how it has been lately’. Two conflicting frames of thought.
I think Tennessee takes either the Auburn or Texas A&M game, Pruitt knows Malzahn well. Two seasons ago Pruitt was ready for every play Malzahn ran, you could watch him on the sideline calling it as if he were hardwired into Malzahns brain.