SDS Crystal Ball: Predicting every game for Tennessee football in 2019
Editor’s note: Our annual Crystal Ball series continues with Tennessee and the SEC East. Coming Sunday: Vanderbilt.
Some good, some bad, some ugly. That’s how I’d describe Year 1 of the Jeremy Pruitt era.
It didn’t yield the bowl berth many wanted, but the Vols did beat a pair of Top 25 teams and at least perform adequately against the cream of the SEC East crop, Georgia.
But there were also disasters against Florida, Mizzou and Vandy, all of which might be better this season.
Now, everyone wants to know how much better Tennessee got this offseason. We know, according to Pruitt’s scales, that the undersized Vols went from having 2 offensive linemen over 300 pounds to now having 15 at 3 bills. We also know that the Vols replaced Tyson Helton with Jim Chaney, who produced a pair of elite offenses the last 2 years he spent at Georgia.
We don’t know what 2019 holds for Tennessee, but we think that the program is as good a bet as any in America to improve its 5 wins from 2018.
Well, at least I do.
2018 record: 5-7 (2-6), 7th in SEC East
Jim Chaney is here to save the day
Speaking of Chaney, a reunion in Knoxville seemed like exactly what he and the Vols needed. After Helton left for Western Kentucky, Pruitt landed as big a fish as he could have in the offensive coordinator market.
I thought Chaney was underappreciated by Georgia the past couple of years. I think many fans took for granted how many mouths there were to feed in Athens. Still, a 24-5 mark with such a dominant 2-year stretch against the division suggests that Chaney is ready to carve up some more SEC East defenses.
The question is how Jarrett Guarantano handles his 4th offensive coordinator and 4th system in as many years. All signs from him and from camp suggest that the process is going extremely well. We won’t know until SEC play, but there’s a reason so many people are high on Guarantano having a breakout season.
The guy Tennessee shelled out nearly $5 million for the next 3 years to land is a big part of that.
Can the defense make that all-important Year 2 step?
From all the places Pruitt coached defenses at — Alabama, Georgia, Florida State, Hoover High, etc. — I wondered how he was going to handle being at a clear disadvantage on that side of the ball.
Darrell Taylor, Tennessee’s 2018 Team MVP, felt like a microcosm of the defense. He showed flashes and high upside — nobody returning in the SEC had more sacks than Taylor’s 8 last year — but wasn’t as consistent as Pruitt probably hoped.
Can Taylor and the Vols’ defense put it all together? The Vols return 76% of last year’s production on defense, including leading tackler Daniel Bituli and all-name team lifer Nigel Warrior. They should be at the center of another step up after at least leading the defense to levels of mediocrity last year (No. 54 against the run was a strong Year 1 sign).
Pruitt’s defensive prowess should be on display this year. But I’d be surprised if this group looked like a finished product already.
Beware of false confidence
The more I thought about it, the more I hated the idea of overanalyzing Tennessee’s win total this year. Well, as long as it’s at least 6.
We always want to do this thing with Year 2 coaches at rebuilding programs where we say “X number of wins would be progress.” I think this year’s Tennessee team could win 8 regular-season games and not show much progress. I also think they can win 6 games and show a ton of progress.
What do I mean? This schedule sets up extremely well. Not having a Power 5 nonconference opponent helps, as does only having 4 road games. It also helps that Tennessee ranks No. 2 in America in percentage of returning production. In a typical year, that won’t happen. The Vols had massive roster turnover with the coaching transition.
That combination sets up a somewhat atypical set of circumstances. That’s why I wouldn’t get caught up in whether it’s 7 wins or 8. I want to see how Tennessee handles itself against Alabama, Florida, Georgia and Mizzou. That’s what’s going to indicate progress. Last year, those teams outscored Tennessee by an average of 30.5 points per game.
If Tennessee is heading into a bowl game with 8 wins but those 4 games don’t look any different, I’m questioning Pruitt more than I did after Year 1. We’ve seen Year 2 mirages in recent memory (2016 Nebraska, 2016 Florida).
Beware of it this year, too.
Game-by-game predictions
Week 1: vs. Georgia State (W)
A 2-10 team from the Sun Belt? Rocky Top enjoys every bit of Chaney’s debut. Second debut.
Week 2: vs. BYU (W)
BYU beat 5 Power 5 teams in the past 3 seasons, including that stunner at Wisconsin last year. And after opening the season against Utah, getting up to speed won’t be an issue. But do I expect the Cougars to roll into Knoxville and pull off the upset? No, because an inexperienced BYU defense struggles to slow down Jauan Jennings and the Vols’ air attack.
Week 3: vs. Chattanooga (W)
I need to tweak what I said earlier about which games matter and which don’t. This is the type of game that I want to see Tennessee impose its will on the offensive line and dominate for 60 minutes. This should be a big Ty Chandler game. Well, at least before the reserves take over.
Week 4: at Florida (L)
It was a bloodbath in Tennessee last year. You can’t turn the ball over like that and beat a team like Florida. While I think the size improvements up front will bode well for the Vols in keeping Guarantano upright, I still question how that line will stay in front of Todd Grantham’s defense. A setback heading into the bye week brings the Vols back to Earth a touch.
Week 5: Bye
Week 6: vs. Georgia (L)
A Chaney revenge game? Sure, let’s call it that. With a bye week, he’ll have plenty of tricks up his sleeve (opening play flea-flicker maybe?). This will be a trendy upset pick, but I still think Jake Fromm has learned how to thrive in hostile environments. He makes enough plays to keep Georgia’s streak of SEC East victories alive.
Week 7: vs. Mississippi State (L)
This will be a great measuring stick for Pruitt. Both teams have 2nd-year coaches who want to make that step up after an oftentimes frustrating Year 1. In a thriller, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a well-rested MSU team wear down Tennessee. Joe Moorhead’s offense clicks at the perfect time and he picks up a huge road win in Knoxville.
Week 8: at Alabama (L)
To Pruitt’s credit, last year’s team didn’t lose 3 in a row. But this year’s team will have a difficult time getting through that 3-week stretch coming off the bye. On the bright side, I think Tennessee’s defense has a better chance of preventing Tua Tagovailoa from throwing touchdowns at will. We could even see an Alontae Taylor interception or a strip sack from Henry To’oto’o (that would sting for Alabama fans). But for 60 minutes? Tennessee isn’t on Alabama’s level yet.
Week 9: vs. South Carolina (W)
This would make for a perfect time to stop the bleeding. A game that Tennessee should have won last year flips in its favor. Why? The Vols’ secondary plays its best game. Jake Bentley struggles on the road against an improved defensive backfield and the Vols finally find themselves on the right side of an SEC nail-biter.
Week 10: vs. UAB (W)
I’d be a little higher on UAB’s chances of pulling off an upset if it returned more than a stunningly low 36% of its production from last year’s 11-win squad. But the Blazers rank dead last among FBS teams in that department. It’ll show in Knoxville.
Week 11: at Kentucky (W)
While I believe the Cats are going to be better than people think, I also think Tennessee is due for its first road win of 2019. Guarantano is settled into Chaney’s system enough to pick on Kentucky’s inexperienced secondary. I mean, Guarantano was good enough to beat last year’s Kentucky defense and he returns essentially everyone from that group. Chaney dials up another masterful game plan to beat the Cats and bowl eligibility is clinched.
Week 12: Bye
Week 13: at Mizzou (L)
Do you think Barry Odom will have his team fired up to play Tennessee after he accused the Vols’ coaching staff of trying to poach his players following the bowl ban announcement? I do. On Senior Day, the Tigers make another statement against Tennessee.
Week 14: vs. Vanderbilt (W)
The streak ends. After 3 years of embarrassment, Vandy’s longest winning streak against the Vols since 1926 comes to an end. Guarantano gets the protection he needs to pick apart a vulnerable Vandy defense. It turns into a bit of a shootout, but this time, Tennessee finally has the defensive pieces in place to stop the Commodores late. Seven wins and the end of an ugly in-state skid is worth celebrating.
2019 projection: 7-5 (3-5, 5th in SEC East)
#RockyTop
Perspective, perspective, perspective.
I want to see Tennessee not get discouraged if its start is rough. Can a team that’s had no shortage of disappointment the past couple years keep it together if it winds up being an 0-4 start to SEC play? It would be an interesting crossroads for Pruitt.
But imagine if that start happens and Tennessee pushes Georgia and Florida for all 60 minutes. That, coupled with winning 4-of-5 to end the season and perhaps even a bowl win, would get the hype train rolling in a hurry for 2020. The Vols would be a likely Top 25 team, especially if Guarantano were to return.
This was never going to be a quick flip. Tough times are still coming. Pruitt’s defense isn’t a finished product. But as the blue-chip recruits like To’oto’o, Darnell Wright, Wanya Morris and others get involved immediately this year, one has to think the arrow will still be pointing up for the Vols’ future.
Life could be a whole lot worse in Knoxville.
I think 6-6 or 7-5 is likely. I think we get off the shnide with SC and I really think we can beat MSU. So maybe 8-4 isn’t too big a stretch. But it also may be stretching it. Time will tell. Soon thankfully!
The four OOC games should all be wins. Florida, UGA, and Alabama should all be losses. If things go right, UT could win all the rest, but they could also lose to any of those teams. Missouri and MSU should be the toughest, but UT showed last season that they are capable. I’m leaning towards 6-6, but nothing between 4-8 and 8-4 would be shocking.
The coaching staff has certainly improved from the Butch Jones dumpster fire days.
A 12th ranked 2019 recruiting class should also help.
Other than Bama and UGA, I’m not ready to call W’s and L’s with UT’s SEC slate but I’ll certainly be watching to see what happens.
The way I look at it Georgia has by far the most talent in the East and Vanderbilt has the least. I think the other 5 teams all have strengths and weaknesses, and the gap is pretty narrow. I think coaching and players making the key big plays is what will separate Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina and Tennessee.
Overall I think the record is going to be 6-6 or 7-5. I think we win all 4 non-conference games, finally play a good game and beat Vandy, and then find 1 or 2 wins somewhere else.
What I really want to see is how the team plays. Do we avoid the stupid mistakes? Do guys make the effort plays? Does Guarantano have time to throw? Can we put some pressure on the quarterback without blitzing? That is what will show real progress.
Coaching and key plays are normally factors in a match between more or less equal teams. Injuries, lucky bounces, and officiating also are common deciding factors. Beware the fifth down and phantom interference!
Is it sad to say I’d be excited with a 7-5 regular season and a chance for an 8th win in a bowl?
Not at all, that would be some solid progress after last season.
This year-no. Historically-certainly.
No. Any team that’s building from 4-8 and 5-7 to hoping to win division titles is generally going to have to stop by 8-5sville on the way there.
Not at all. 8-4 would be a really good year for Vols IMO. 7-5 acceptable,especially if the 10 games other than Bama and UGA are competitive.
Gamecocks can win this game for sure. The Carolina-Tennessee series has been an underrated game the past 3 years. Always hard fought and good old fashioned physical football.
If Pruitt doesn’t bring out a trash can, Tennessee will be better than year one. Not much better but better none the less. This is a project and Pruitt will get Tennessee back to respectable. It’s just going to take another 2-3 years.
The only must-do’s are beat Vandy, go bowling, and no more Florida/Vandy/Mizzou type losses.
You actually think the Georgia-Tennessee Game will be close, Connor? Give me a break. It’s going to be more similar to the 42-0 beatdown than last year’s game.
Your love of Chaney is ridiculous. You saw how the Dawgs performed on offense in two fourth quarters vs. Bama and in the terrible Sugar Bowl. Chaney spit the bit in all those games. He shut the offense down vs. Bama and literally lost those games, and against Texas’s blitz-heavy defense, he didn’t call a single screen pass.
Now you put Chaney in Tennessee, with a bad offensive line and not even had the talent Georgia has, and you expect hm to be a savior? The real Jim Chaney is the guy who is garbage with below level talent. Who did a crap job at Arkansas and Pitt and Georgia in 2016. You’re about to see it again.
Tennessee finishes below .500. The offense under Chaney is inconsistent, predictable, and infuriating for Vol fans. Who we’ve been trying to warn, but most refuse to listen.
The reason we all choose not to listen is because Chaney has tremendous success when he was at Tennessee the last time. Even under Dooley’s poor leadership the offense was never the problem. Dooley’s last year the offense set all kinds of records, the problem was the defense was setting records too. They were just records for the worst team in our history. If Chaney gets us back to the level of success HE had the last time he was her, coupled with Pruitt’s ability to coach defense we will be a pretty good team. I don’t think we will be good this year, but I think Chaney was a tremendous hire.
Never going to win even a division with Chaney as your offensive coordinator. He chokes in too many big moments, and he’s absolutely garbage without an offensive line full of 5-star athletes, which you’ll never have.
A lot of effort spent rationalizing a team you feel to be so inconsequential in the near and long-term. Freud called this projection.
You sure it’s not Smart choking in the big moments? It wasn’t Chaney calling a fake punt or giving up a wide open touchdown pass the play after getting what could have been a game winning sack.
Uh we have three 5 stars on the OL now…
But as usual corch your view of Chaney is tainted and WRONG.
If Coley is such an upgrade, why interview Eddie Gran?
Okay, I’m a Georgia fan, so I get the Chaney angst. But he’s not a bad OC when it comes to game-planning. He just isn’t very adaptable in the game once the other team adjusts to what he is doing. And I think he’s an upgrade for Tennessee no matter what. This is one of the rare times when we might see a win-win when it comes to an assistant coach hiring: Coley may make Georgia’s offense more diversified and adaptable, and Chaney may make Tennessee better in terms of game-planning (and thereby better overall).
I think UT wins all of the OOC games and loses to Bama and Georgia (the talent differential is just too great with both of those teams). That’s 4-2. The rest of the games are toss-ups, so let’s just take the lazy way out and say the Vols split them. That’s 3-3. So 7-5 seems reasonable.
Doc hits the nail on the head with Cheney. He was totally unable to adapt and adjust the plan during game. Didnt happen much, but when Dawgs got behind, we couldnt catch up because we would still be running the same plays that didnt work the first 5 times. 2017 Auburn and 2018 LSU games perfect examples.
Also he is a total zero in recruiting.
He’s a politician, not a coach, so I can understand why having him as an OC would lead to less than desirable results.
I am higher on Tennessee than most. I think 7 or 8 wins is about right though
Kentucky will be tough to beat at home.
Last year’s loss at Tennessee was a fluke because KY was spent physically and emotionally following the Georgia game.
It’s the old, “Never let a team beat you twice,” axiom. Happened to us in the Sugar Bowl. Happened to a lot of teams we beat the crap out of last year.
What about all the other times UK lost to UT? They struggle to win in basketball lately, let alone the demolishing of the all century team last year (24-7).
just because UT is 31-2 against my beloved Kentucky Wildcats doesn’t mean we won’t beat them again in the next three decades.
Blind Squirrel and such.
Tennessee will play in Atlanta by winning games above plus upsetting Georgia, Miss State and Missouri. Georgia will lose to Auburn and Florida will lose to Georgia and Auburn and probably LSU
I hope you’ve got a time machine. 6-6 is a floor barring catastrophic injuries, but we should be pleased with 7-5 and no blowouts.
If I were you I wouldn’t bet my coon-skin hat on that.
What the hell are you smoking? Georgia is going to be better than last season. The floor for Georgia is 11-1, and personally I think the Dawgs are in for a 12-0 season (not that I’m biased or anything). I’ve been watching Georgia football for 45 years and this is the most overall talent and the best starting talent I’ve ever seen on both sides of the ball. The only real competition Georgia has in the East is Florida, and that game will be a three TD beatdown by the Dawgs. Could we lose to Auburn on the road? Sure. But short of an injury to Fromm (God forbid), it’s highly unlikely.
May I please have the number of your weed dealer? That must be some really good stuff.
It doesn’t matter how drunk you get or how long you fantasize. You still own Gus $30 million.
Any chance we can get a “W” next to those bye weeks? At least go 1-1?
This probably is pretty close to right. Tennessee should be better. I’m not a big Jeremy Pruitt fan, but he’s a real coach, unlike what UT has mostly had since Fulmer. I assume they’ll get to a bowl this year, they may even find a way to get past Vandy.
The question for them is what’s next going forward. For a few coaches now, we’ve seen them get past the first stage to bowl eligibility. I don’t really doubt that Pruitt has that in him. But can he take the next step? That will absolutely be “believe it when I see it” for UT until further notice.
I believe Vols will do better than that. Another year of Pruitt physical practices will make Vols tougher, especially against middle of pack teams. They will beat Miss St since that game will seem like a breeze in a brutal 4 game stretch.Mo,Ky,Sc are tossups but 2 wins seems doable. They may pull off a big road win at Fla, but could just as easily to lose to SC at home.
4-4; 8-4 and Pruitt , the father of UGA indoor faciiity (Thanks JP) gets a well deserved extension.
It all comes down to depth. Every team in the East has improved from last year, except for UK. Sorry, UK, but you just lost too much talent. It is no longer 22 vs 22 in the East. It is 35 vs 35, especially in Oct/Nov.
TN is going to bite someone this season-just hope it isn’t UGA. Credit to Pruitt & company for this strategic shift in his second year. Going from 5-7 to 7-5 is progress, just don’t know if that’s indicative of this teams abilities. I predict 8-4. Dogs on Top!
Ever notice how someone comes along and everybody is like, “shut up and go away”. Or, “your crazy dude, he is a stud”. Well I’ve been wrong 3 times in the last 40 years, that my friends can point a finger at with our Vols. So I get to the point. 21 games, inconsistent as any ever from management to execution. But no Qb in Vol history has gotten half as many chances to succeed as JG and failed. IF, he starts and takes us through the first 3 games. You will all see this fact, he cannot understand Chaney and is way over his head. If our other 2 backups are close, a change is not only needed but badly warranted, justified. Rewind each game, each snap. Give him credit on a play even if it is close. This should not even be a discussion because it is that bad. The O&W game, the media, Vol media saw “a good and promising performance by JG. I saw him go the 1st 3 series without a positive play, 3-16 passing with 3 min to go in the half. Guessing like BJ and going through the motions. This is where the predictions are. IF, we find a scrappy manager of the O who can play head games with the D and start running it aggressively. And our DLine comes to life, finds itself with a good rotation. We can shock the world. If we stick with JG and he doesn’t get a lot better like the media said he would. And the D upfront just can’t handle the load 4-5 games, we will be in trouble. Regardless, I love this coach, staff and can live with any outcome and have all my life although it can hurt. Proud to be a Tennessee Vol !