So here’s the thing about statistics. You can always find a way to make the numbers work in your favor.

Remember when Butch Jones would talk about how many players he had on the Tennessee roster who had yet to be on a plane for an SEC road game? It served as a preemptive strike if things went poorly.

That said, there are some numbers that the Vols need to correct if 2022 is going to be a successful season.

1. 15 straight losses to the Big 3

Yes, Tennessee has lost 15 in a row to Alabama. Yes, Tennessee has lost 14 out of 15 to Florida. Yes, Tennessee has lost 5 straight to Georgia. Are those numbers bad? Yes, my friend, they are.

But Rome wasn’t built in a day, and expecting the Vols to change the direction of all of these streaks is unrealistic.

However, winning at least 1 of these games is not unrealistic.

Since 2017, the Vols have lost each of their games to the Tide, Gators and Bulldogs. Rarely have the contests even been close. That’s 15 games in a row that Tennessee has dropped to its biggest rivals.

The Vols could go 9-3 this year, but without a program-affirming win if that trend continues.

2. Penalties against ranked opponents

Obviously, the Vols want to win all their games, but getting a victory over a ranked opponent means a bit more. It’s a sign that they aren’t going to be a pushover anymore.

But self-inflicted wounds have been an issue over the past 3 seasons. Since 2019, Tennessee has played a ranked foe 13 times and won only once. Seeing more yellow flags hasn’t helped matters.

In 2019, the Vols played a ranked opponent 3 times, losing all 3 contests. They averaged 8.7 penalties in those losses, 2.3 more than their season average.

In 2020, the Vols played a ranked opponent 5 times, losing all 5 contests. They averaged 7.3 penalties in those losses, 1.2 more than their season average.

In 2021, the Vols played a ranked opponent 5 times, winning only the Kentucky game. They racked up an average of 8.6 penalties in those games, nearly 2 more than their average.

A more disciplined effort would be a benefit for the Vols when facing ranked opponents.

3. 3rd- and 4th-down defense

The defense needs to get some stops if the Vols are going to win games. That’s the same truth for teams across the country.

It might be even more important for the Vols. With the fast-paced Josh Heupel offense in play, the UT defense doesn’t get a lot of time to rest after a drive.

Since 2017, Tennessee’s defense has allowed FBS opponents to convert on 3rd down 40 percent of the time. Last season, the Vols were bested on 43.7 percent of those plays.

Teams are going for it on 4th down more than ever, and the numbers are very similar for Tennessee in that category as well. Last season, the Vols allowed 42.3 percent of 4th downs to be converted in FBS play.

Getting better in this area could also serve as a momentum swing.

4. Win the turnover margin at home

Taking care of the football is crucial. For whatever reason, Tennessee has had some issues in this category when playing games at Neyland Stadium.

Since 2017, only 1 season finished with the Vols in positive territory in the turnover margin at home. In the past 2 years, Tennessee is a combined minus-5.

Fortunately, Tennessee has a quarterback in Hendon Hooker who rarely is picked off. Now if the defense can get a little more opportunistic, this trend might turn for the better.

5. Quicker early season start in the passing

Since 2015, Tennessee’s passing attack hasn’t been clicking in its early contests. In August/September, the Vols have averaged no more than 218 yards passing in those games, and that came in Heupel’s first year.

(For the purposes of this discussion, we don’t include 2020, since Tennessee played only 1 game early due to the COVID-delayed start to the season.)

Tennessee has been above its season average in passing only once during this stretch, that coming in 2017. Even then, the Vols didn’t throw for an average of more than 200 yards in the August/September contests.

The Vols play Pittsburgh and Florida in September. They probably will need a more impactful passing game to get those 2 early victories.