Tennessee is one win away from history.

The Volunteers have never before made the Final Four, but can do so with a victory over No. 1-seeded Purdue on Sunday night. Led by Dalton Knecht, Tennessee has looked like a potential title contender for months — but it all comes down to 40 minutes against the Boilermakers.

There are a couple of different elements to consider when looking at Tennessee’s pursuit of the Final Four. For one thing, how do the Vols stack up statistically against some other recent Final Four programs? How have teams with similar profiles to UT performed in the NCAA Tournament in year’s past?

There’s also the matter of 7-foot-4 center Zach Edey, who remains Tennessee’s biggest obstacle to a Final Four berth. Tennessee has already seen Edey once this season back in November. Edey scored 23 points in a 71-67 win over the Vols on a neutral floor.

Here’s a breakdown of what Tennessee is facing as it prepares to face the Boilermakers on Sunday afternoon in the Elite Eight:

Tennessee’s statistical case

Tennessee’s advanced stats profile is impressive. The Vols have had an elite defense under Rick Barnes for most of the past few seasons, but now they have the high-upside offense to go with it.

Tennessee enters the Elite Eight slate with the No. 30 defense and the No. 3 offense in the country, per BartTorvik’s opponent-adjusted efficiency metrics. Tennessee also plays at an above-average pace, averaging 69.3 possessions per game. The Vols rank 83rd nationally in that stat, which is easily their highest ranking of the Barnes era.

Deploying a great defense, an elite offense and a quick tempo will generally lead to success in the NCAA Tournament. According to BartTorvik’s efficiency comparison tool, the 10 teams that most resemble Tennessee’s profile (since 2008) average 3 wins in the NCAA Tournament. That may not appear to be good news for Vols fans who are hoping to get their 4th victory on Sunday night, but there’s plenty of precedent for teams with this profile to advance to the Final Four — and even beyond.

Memphis in 2008, UConn in 2009, Kansas in 2012 and Gonzaga in 2017 all reached at least the Final Four or national title game. Notably, none of those teams were able to cut down the nets on the first Monday in April.

But there is reason to believe Tennessee is efficient enough on both ends of the floor to not just get past Purdue, but to go all the way. Since KenPom began tracking efficiencies in 1999, all but one national champion has posted an offensive rating of at least 114.0 and a defensive rating better than 94.0. The lone exception to that rule is UConn in 2014, who won the title as a No. 7 seed with an offensive rating of 113.6.

This year, Tennessee and Connecticut are currently the only teams who meet the criteria listed above. Purdue’s defense (95.5) isn’t quite sharp enough, nor is Duke’s (94.8). None of Illinois, Alabama, Clemson or NC State come close to meeting this threshold on the defensive side of the floor.

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The Zach Edey problem

Whether or not this Tennessee team can go where no Vols squad has gone before will largely depend on one question: Can Tennessee slow down Zach Edey?

Perhaps it’s an advantage that Tennessee has already faced Edey this season. In addition to his 23 points, Edey also collected 10 rebounds and made 17 trips to the foul line in Purdue’s win over the Vols from back in November.

Tennessee’s Josiah-Jordan James acknowledged that going over the tape from Tennessee’s first meeting with Purdue is helpful preparation.

“I feel like experience is the best teacher. We have 40 minutes to play against him and his entire team, and we’ll go back,” James said Saturday. “Watching that film, we weren’t at our best. We’ve grown a lot, but they have as well.

“Just turning down on the turnovers and staying within our principles on the defensive end will be huge. They have a really, really good team. It’s going to be a physical battle, but we’re more than up to the challenge.”

As James alluded to, the scary truth is that Edey is even better now than he was then — as is this Purdue team as a whole. The Boilermakers have won their first 3 Tournament games by an average of more than 20 points per contest. Since Feb. 25, Edey is averaging 28.6 points and 13.3 rebounds per game — he’s ramped up his level of play as the intensity has increased over the last few weeks.

Of course, Edey can also self-scout based on his game against Tennessee earlier this season. This will be the 10th repeat matchup of the year for Edey, who also faced Gonzaga twice this season (as well as 8 Big Ten opponents). In all 9 previous repeat matchups, Edey improved either his point total or field goal percentage in the second meeting. He averaged 28.3 points per game across those 10 contests (including a third matchup vs. Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament), slightly above his season average.

On paper, Tennessee’s defensive profile shows the potential to slow down Edey and this Purdue team. The Vols give up a lot of 3-point attempts, but Purdue doesn’t take many (239th nationally in 3-point attempt rate). Edey lives in the paint, but Tennessee is 8th nationally in 2-point percentage defense. If there’s one obvious issue, it’s Tennessee’s tendency to foul. The Vols rank 250th in free throw rate allowed, and Edey leads the nation in fouls drawn.

That fouling issue showed up in Tennessee’s first matchup vs. Edey as the Vols fouled Purdue 31 times in a 4-point loss. Head coach Rick Barnes told reporters on Saturday that he thinks “about half” of the fouls called in the first meeting between these teams wouldn’t be called in a NCAA Tournament setting.

“Well, based on the way the tournament is being called, about half of those fouls wouldn’t have been called, I can assure you of that,” Barnes said.

In addition to the issues he poses on the offensive end, Edey is a significant deterrent on defense. A giant often parked near the rim, Edey can patrol the paint and vacuum up rebounds as well as anyone in the country.

It will be up to Tennessee’s offense, led by Dalton Knecht, to put up points in bunches on the Boilermakers. Like Edey, Knecht was an All-American this season who routinely scored 30+ points — albeit in a polar-opposite style to the Purdue big man.

Tennessee’s insistence on shooting the 3-pointer may work out in its favor in this matchup, given how well Edey guards the rim. The Vols shoot over 41% of their field goal attempts from long range. Purdue ranked 9th amongst Big Ten teams this season in 3-point percentage defense at 35.8%.

For Tennessee, the time for prep is over. Barnes has been in this spot before, even if the Vols haven’t since their last Elite Eight appearance in 2010. Barnes brought Texas to the Elite Eight three times and the Final Four once during his time with the Longhorns. Barnes, 69, tried to add his perspective on this moment for Tennessee in his Saturday press conference.

“When you’re in the midst of it, it’s hard because you’ve just got to let it go real quick and get to the next,” Barnes said. “You’re obviously concerned about every one of your players. But you do have that feeling quickly after a win, there’s a — I don’t even know if I’d say it’s relief or whatever, but the fact that you’re excited for those guys, and yet excited for everyone involved. And your mind quickly shifts to what’s next.”

The “what’s next” for the Vols could be crushing disappointment or the biggest win in program history to-date. Tipoff is at 2:20 p.m. ET on Sunday afternoon.