College football win totals: Notable betting trends with 5 SEC teams

College football betting markets never sleep.

In the offseason, it’s all about futures bets. Win totals, with an over/under set by oddsmakers at various sportsbooks, help set the expectations that drive talking season discussions among fans and media members.

On Wednesday, BetMGM shared betting data with Saturday Down South showing some notable trends in CFB win totals.

Among SEC teams, Georgia has the highest win total. UGA opened at 10.5 wins at BetMGM and remains there. The over is the popular pick with 67% of the tickets (bets) for 86% of the handle (money bet).

SEC win total over/under at BetMGM:

Georgia – 10.5
Texas – 10
Alabama – 9.5
Missouri – 9.5
Ole Miss – 9.5
LSU – 9
Tennessee – 9
Texas A&M – 8.5
Auburn – 7.5
Oklahoma – 7.5
Kentucky – 6.5
South Carolina – 5.5
Arkansas – 4.5
Florida – 4.5
Mississippi State – 4
Vanderbilt – 2.5

Not every team’s Aug. 7 over/under is the same as opening.

BetMGM highlighted Texas A&M as part of a group of teams that has seen notable line movement upward:

Notable line movement increases (Open to Now at BetMGM)

Utah 9.5 to 10
Clemson 8.5 to 9.5
Oklahoma State 7.5 to 8.5
Virginia Tech 7.5 to 8.5
Texas A&M 7.5 to 8.5
Iowa 7.5 to 8.5
Minnesota 4.5 to 5.5

Over 7.5 was priced at +110, meaning a $100 wager would have won $110 for a payout of $210 if the Aggies finished the regular season with 8 or more wins. Over 8.5 is now priced at -120, meaning it takes a $120 wager to win $100 for a $220 payout if Texas A&M wins 9 games or more in Mike Elko’s first season.

A pair of SEC programs are trending in the opposite direction with bettors. Both Arkansas and Florida opened with over/under win totals of 5.5. The Razorbacks and Gators have each seen the over/under drop to 4.5 wins.

Notable line movement decreases (Open to Now at BetMGM):

Arizona 8.5 to 7.5
Maryland 7.5 to 6.5
Duke 6.5 to 5.5
UCLA 6.5 to 4.5
Arkansas 5.5 to 4.5
Florida 5.5 to 4.5
Houston 4.5 to 3.5

Under 5.5 wins for Arkansas was initially priced at -200 at BetMGM. Under 4.5 Razorback wins are now priced at +105. Interestingly, there are slightly more “over” bets (52%) than “under” (48%), but much more money is on under (69% of the handle).

Under 5.5 wins for Florida was originally priced at -200 at BetMGM. Under 4.5 Gator wins is now priced at +105. By tickets, over is the more popular UF bet (67%). The handle, however, is majority under (56% of money bet).

Texas and LSU are also two of the most popular “under” bets, according to BetMGM.

The Longhorns opened at 10.5 wins at BetMGM, with the over priced at +125 and under at -150. The line has moved to 10, with over at -125 and under at +105. The ticket split is 85% under, 15% over for Texas.

Note: BetMGM emailed its data before Wednesday’s news on CJ Baxter’s injury.

LSU opened with a 9.5-win over/under at BetMGM. Both options were priced at -115. The line on the Tigers has moved to 9, with over currently priced at -130 and under now +115. The handle split on LSU’s win total is 89% on the under.

Most bet UNDERs (tickets at BetMGM)

Colorado 5.5
Texas 10
Michigan 9

Most bet UNDERs (handle at BetMGM)

Georgia Tech 5
LSU 9
Michigan 9