ESPN betting expert high on Florida to exceed expectations in 2024

As the dust settled on Florida’s 2023 season, head coach Billy Napier faced “hot seat” chatter.

With a 5-7 record in 2023, Napier is only 11-14 in two seasons at Florida. The Gators’ sub-.500 finish extended UF’s streak to three consecutive losing seasons, unthinkable during the days of Steve Spurrier and Urban Meyer.

Before the calendar even turned to the new year, many analysts and fans felt Napier was in trouble in 2024. In December, the SEC revealed the 2024 schedule, and Florida’s was particularly daunting.

While UF’s opponents in the SEC (Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss) and nonconference play (Miami, Samford, UCF, Florida State) had previously been announced, it was still jarring for many seeing them officially scheduled. The final five, a gauntlet of Georgia-Texas-LSU-Ole Miss-FSU, notably stood out.

Considering Florida’s schedule, widely recognized as the nation’s most difficult, oddsmakers have low expectations for the Gators in 2024. At DraftKings Sportsbook, the over/under for UF’s regular-season win total is set at just 4.5.

ESPN betting analyst Steve Coughlin, aka “Stanford Steve,” likes the Gators to clear the over. He sees the potential for Napier’s squad to get 80% of the way to the over (5 wins) in the first 4 games.

“Florida could be 7-5 and be way, way ahead of where they were last year. I won’t be surprised if they start 4-0. I think they have the goods,” Coughlin said, appearing on Andy Staples’ podcast.

“This whole offseason, with the (Jaden) Rashada debacle, and still have to deal with that and all the questions, I think Billy’s done a really good job of keeping his players in line because they know what’s at the end. They know how important the beginning is. I think they’re going to come out very, very sharp in that opening start to the season. You have to start 4-0 with that UCF game (Oct. 5). I think they have the ability to do that, I really do.”

With a schedule virtually free of gimme games – FCS program Samford memorably managed to score 52 points three years ago in The Swamp – it’s far from a cakewalk to 4-0. Here’s how the first four games are scheduled:

Week 1: Miami at Florida
Week 2: Samford at Florida
Week 3: Texas A&M at Florida
Week 4: Florida at Mississippi State

The preseason Coaches Poll features both Miami and Texas A&M in the top 25, at Nos. 17 and 20 respectively. Coughlin, though, views both as winnable games for the Gators.

“Miami has to have their A-game (playing at Florida),” Coughlin said in between praising the talent on UF’s roster. “I’m not sure they’re going to have it in Week 1 because of all of the parameters.”

Coughlin sees the home atmosphere being a potential difference-maker for Florida in its SEC opener as well.

“A&M comes to your place,” the ESPN personality said. “We saw what A&M looked like when they went to Miami last year. Florida is a more capable team than Miami last year.”

Texas A&M lost to Miami 48-33 on Sept. 9, 2023, in Coral Gables. The meeting between the Aggies and Gators in Gainesville on Sept. 14 is set for a 3:30 p.m. kickoff, airing on ABC.