The SEC has had the impressive distinction of being the only conference in college football to send at least 10 teams to bowl games in each of the last four seasons.

That streak looks as though it will come to an end in 2017. Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee and Vanderbilt are still trying to reach bowl eligibility, and as luck would have it, many of these teams will face each other in what will likely be “bowl elimination” games.

Here’s where things stand for the SEC going into this weekend:

Already bowl eligible (8): Alabama (10-0), Georgia (9-1), Auburn (8-2), LSU (7-3), Kentucky (7-3), Mississippi State (7-3), South Carolina (7-3), Texas A&M (6-4).

Still alive (4): Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Vanderbilt. (Details below.)

Out (2): Ole Miss (5-5, self-imposed bowl ban), Florida (3-6, can’t reach six wins because of canceled game).

While 5-7 can still get a team into a bowl game (if there aren’t enough eligible 6-6 teams), for the purposes of this story, we’re going to examine the chances to reach 6-6 for the four SEC teams still chasing bowl eligibility. Two of the four would need to do so for the SEC to have 10 teams qualify. There is an unlikely scenario in which three of the four reach 6-6, and also a way that none of them do. Based on the odds, it’s most likely that Missouri is the lone team of the four to finish .500 or better.

Here are the outlooks for the four SEC teams still chasing bowl dreams, going from least likely to most likely to achieve eligibility:

4) Arkansas (4-6, 1-5)

Of the four teams on this list, it appears the Razorbacks’ road to bowl eligibility will be the most difficult. While they are hosting their final two games of the regular season, they are facing a Mississippi State team that pushed No. 1 Alabama to the limit last week, and then they take on one of the hottest teams in the SEC in Missouri.

Considering Arkansas has the worst scoring defense in the SEC, it’s hard to imagine it would have enough to slow both the Bulldogs and Tigers, teams that are each averaging at least 30 points a game.

The ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) only gives Arkansas a 6% chance to win both games.

The “if only” game: Texas A&M

Arkansas couldn’t hold on to a two-touchdown lead in its mid-September game at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington and wound up losing in overtime, 50-43. (The other five losses for Arkansas have all come by 20+ points.)

3) Tennessee (4-6, 0-6)

The train wreck that is the 2017 Tennessee football season has been well documented, and it has cost head coach Butch Jones his job.

The Volunteers do play their final two games of the regular season at home, so that is a plus. However, one of those games is against No. 21 LSU, an opponent the FPI only gives the Volunteers a 23% chance to win.

Tennessee possesses the worst scoring offense in the SEC (20.4 PPG), and LSU has held six straight opponents to 24 points or less.

And even if the Volunteers pulled off the upset over the Tigers, they would be facing a Vanderbilt team that has won three of the last five meetings vs. Tennessee.

The “if only” game: Florida

Three of Tennessee’s six losses have come by a touchdown or less. But there’s really only one that Volunteers fans will look back on and wish they had back.

Tennessee-Florida appeared to be heading to overtime before the Gators’ Hail Mary TD pass on the game’s final play gave them a 26-20 win, preventing a 3-0 start for Tennessee, whose season was never the same after that loss.

2) Vanderbilt (4-6, 0-6)

See if this sounds familiar, Vanderbilt fans. A 4-6 Commodores team, needing to win its final two games to become bowl eligible, faces one of the SEC’s top offenses in Game 11.

Then, after that game, the Commodores have to beat their in-state rival to finish 6-6.

That was the scenario last season, when Vanderbilt held Ole Miss to a season-low 17 points in getting a much-needed victory, setting up its regular-season finale against Tennessee, which Vanderbilt won as well, 45-34.

Fast forward to this season, and the setting is almost exactly the same. Vanderbilt enters its next-to-last regular-season game at 4-6 and is hosting perhaps the top offense in the SEC in Missouri. And, if the Commodores can get the win Saturday, it sets up another regular-season finale against Tennessee.

Can Vanderbilt pull off this feat for the second consecutive season? It will be more difficult this time for a couple of reasons. One, this year’s Missouri team appears to be way more explosive offensively than Ole Miss of 2016. And second, the Tennessee game will be in Knoxville this year.

Now, Vanderbilt doesn’t necessarily need to finish 6-6 to get to a bowl, as its high APR (Academic Progress Report) score could get the Commodores in at 5-7, provided there aren’t enough eligible 6-win teams. But, again, for the purposes of this article, we’ll stick to each team’s chances of getting to 6-6.

The “if only” game: Florida

When your six losses are by an average of 26 points, it’s not that easy to find a game that “got away.” But facing the Gators in Gainesville in Week 5, the Commodores had a lead late in the first half and were still tied heading into the second half before falling 38-24.

1) Missouri (5-5, 2-4)

There were doubts about this Missouri team right out of the gate, starting when the Tigers allowed a ton of yards and points to Missouri State in their 72-43 season-opening victory.

And by the middle of October, when Missouri was 1-5, it was assumed that not only was this the worst team in the conference, but that head coach Barry Odom’s job was probably in jeopardy.

One month later, and the Tigers are not only sitting in a position where one more win gets them to bowl eligibility, but with two more wins (and a Kentucky loss to Georgia), they could actually finish tied for third place in the SEC East at 4-4.

Missouri is the only one of these four teams that plays its final two games of the regular season on the road. And the Tigers have struggled on the road in SEC play, losing 11 straight games, including three this season. However, they are facing opponents that rank 11th (Vanderbilt)  and last (Arkansas) in the SEC in scoring defense.

The ESPN FPI likes their chances of becoming bowl eligible, giving the Tigers a 44% chance to win both of their final two games.

The “if only” game: South Carolina

Missouri jumped out to a 10-0 lead early in the second quarter and seemed to be in control. Then, Deebo Samuel returned a kickoff 97 yards for a score and the Gamecocks rallied in a big way to beat the Tigers 31-13. Missouri outgained South Carolina 423-359, but the Tigers committed three turnovers while the Gamecocks had none.