It all comes down to this. For all the ups and downs, the rap on Jalen Milroe, the race to acknowledge the fall of the Bama empire, the 2023 season boils down to the next 3 games. That will decide whether the dynasty is done, for 2023 anyway.

Alabama is about to enter into its most important stretch of games this season. Beginning with the Third Saturday in October, the annual date with Tennessee, then a week off before hosting LSU, and finally hitting the road to take on Kentucky. Three games that will shape the season — and postseason.

Will the Tide answer the bell? Do they have enough to survive the next few weeks? The short answer is yes. Alabama has done just enough to reach past the halfway point in the season with a record of 6-1 overall and 4-0 in SEC play. That mark compares to previous seasons where the Tide were viewed as the dominant team in the SEC and in most seasons, the country as well.

But this season has been different. It hasn’t been pretty, but it’s been effective. Maybe not to the extent that Alabama fans have grown accustomed to over the years, but the Tide remain the only team in the SEC West with a perfect conference record.

After tripping over Texas in Week 2 at Bryant-Denny Stadium, the Tide have reeled off 5 consecutive victories and now find themselves back in the driver’s seat for another SEC West title and a trip to Atlanta for what would be the 8th time in 12 years.

And suddenly, Georgia doesn’t look as dominant as it has the past 2 years, either, especially after news broke Monday that star tight end Brock Bowers is having ankle surgery and his return date is very much in question.

But to get the SEC title, presumably against Georgia, the Tide must finish the job. And that starts on Saturday with a Tennessee (5-1, 2-1 SEC) team looking to stay in contention themselves for a trip to Atlanta. The Vols used their powerful run game to subdue Texas A&M, 20-13, last Saturday in Knoxville, and remain within striking distance of Georgia (7-0, 4-0) in the SEC East.

The Vols will more than likely look for similar results this Saturday at Bryant-Denny, using their SEC-leading rushing attack to control the crowd and the game. The Vols are averaging 230.33 rushing yards per game this season.

It will be strength on strength against the Tide’s run defense, which ranks 3rd in the SEC.

The Tide are even stingier vs. SEC teams, allowing just 94.4 rushing yards per game. In 4 SEC games, only Mississippi State (154 yards) has topped 100 yards rushing vs. the Tide.

A similar or better result on Saturday against Tennessee would likely put the Vols in a precarious situation on offense given the shortcomings of quarterback Joe Milton III. Through 6 games, the Vols’ senior signal-caller ranks 11th in the SEC with a QB rating of 133.61. Milton ranks 12th in passing yards with 1,264.

Those aren’t numbers that would get Vols’ fans too excited about winning on Saturday in Tuscaloosa, a place they haven’t tasted victory since 2003. Though they did break a 15-game losing streak to the Tide last season in Knoxville, Saturday’s game at Bryant-Denny offers an even greater challenge historically. Tennessee has won just twice (2001, 2003) this century at Bryant-Denny.

The SEC West will likely come down to the Nov. 4 tilt with LSU at Bryant-Denny. Isn’t that something? For all the chaos the 2023 season has brought, at the end of the day it comes down to the 2 traditionally powerhouses of the division. If so, this would be the 6th consecutive time that either LSU or Alabama came out on top in the SEC West; the 9th time in 10 years, and the 14th time in the past 17 seasons, with Alabama accounted for 9 of those. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

The Tigers have claimed victory only once since 2012 at Bryant-Denny and that was 2019 with Heisman Trophy QB Joe Burrow. LSU has another Heisman hopeful QB in Jayden Daniels, and containing him will be the key to winning that game and grabbing control of the division.

But that will be easier said than done. Daniels leads the SEC and ranks 3rd in the nation with 2,294 passing yards through 7 games this season. He leads the nation with 11.0 yards per attempt and is tops in QB rating (197.74). He ranks 2nd in the nation with 22 TD passes while throwing just 3 picks.

Alabama’s pass defense, which ranks 3rd in the SEC – allowing only 187.1 yards per game, will surely be tested.

But will it be Milroe who has a field day against an LSU pass defense that ranks 13th in the SEC allowing 266.6 yards per game? Either way, it should be another nail-biter. Three of the last 4 games in this series have been decided by 1, 6, and 5 points with LSU winning 2 of those 3.

And finally, the Tide hit the road to Lexington for a rare meeting with Kentucky. Now, don’t let the record fool you. Winning on the road in the SEC isn’t easy. Still, it’s difficult to overlook the history of this series. The teams have met 41 times with Alabama holding a 38-2-1 advantage, including a 15-2 edge in Lexington where the Tide has won the last 3 games.

Kentucky pulled out a 40-34 victory on its home field in 1997, the last time the Tide lost in Lexington. To avoid the upset, Alabama will have to hold in check Wildcats RB Ray Davis, who leads the SEC with 781 rushing yards.

It’s a pivotal 3-game stretch that will test the Tide and determine whether or not Atlanta is on the agenda for 2023 after failing to reach that destination last year. Under Saban, Alabama has not missed back-to-back SEC Championship Games since 2010-11.