The Oklahoma Sooners have a great offense, led by Heisman-winning QB Kyler Murray, but Alabama has one of the nation’s best defenses.

Oklahoma’s defense, though, is atrocious, so the Sooners will need to turn the Orange Bowl into a shootout in order to advance to the national title game.

On Wednesday, CBS Sports analyst Aaron Taylor revealed how many points he thinks the Sooners will have to score on Alabama’s defense in order to keep the game close:

“I think above 40, and that’s going to be really hard to do,” he said. “If you look at Oklahoma’s defense, we know that they’re bad, but they’re particularly bad in an area that matters most, and that’s red-zone defense — 130th, fellas, out of 130 teams.”

Taylor goes on to say that he thinks a key matchup will be Alabama’s defensive line against Oklahoma’s offensive line. We’ll see if the Sooners can move the ball against the Tide.