Nate Oats is still a believer in his Alabama squad in spite of a rocky finish to the regular season.

On Senior Day, Alabama had to erase a 6-point halftime deficit against Arkansas to force overtime. The Crimson Tide would eventually finish off the game with a 92-88 win, avoiding a third straight loss entering the SEC Tournament 2024 next week.

After the game, Oats was asked to compare this year’s team to the way Alabama finished the 2021-22 season. Two years ago, the Crimson Tide ended the year with back-to-back losses in the regular season before going winless in the SEC and NCAA Tournaments. The loss in the NCAA Tournament was particularly brutal as the Tide were upset by 11-seed Notre Dame in a 78-64 final score.

The good news is Oats believes this year’s group is much stronger. Here’s what he had to say about the comparison:

The results have been a mixed bag down the stretch this season, but it’s worth pointing out that the level of competition has been stiff in every loss. The Tide finished the year 2-3 in their last 5 games with losses to Kentucky, Tennessee and Florida.

Each of those losses is to an NCAA Tournament team, and 2 of those losses came on the road. The win over Arkansas also provides some momentum heading into Nashville next week. Fans can track all the odds for tournament season via SDS’s sports betting links and apps.

What do the numbers say about Alabama’s chances?

Per DraftKings, Alabama is +800 to reach the Final Four when things tip off in a few weeks. By comparison, Tennessee is listed at +230 and UConn leads the odds at +110, so there is some value to be had in Alabama.

There are also some who remain high on Alabama’s overall team makeup entering tournament season. At BartTorvik, the Crimson Tide are given an 11.3% chance of reaching the Final Four, putting an interesting outlook on Alabama’s tournament chances.

The offensive output and playing style of Alabama must also be considered. At KenPom, the Tide rank 3rd in the country in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 11th for Adjusted tempo.

Translation? The Tide can fill up the box score, and they like to play at a pace that is bound to make some teams uncomfortable in the tourney.

Coupled with Oats’ assessment from Saturday, those numbers and projections should give worried fans a bit of relieve heading into next weekend. Then again, an early loss or any stumbling in Nashville could have Tuscaloosa back on pins and needles entering the Big Dance.