Purdue is outscoring its opponents by 30.5 points per 100 possessions during the NCAA Tournament. The offense is doing what everyone wanted to see in the postseason — shred teams who dared to double down on Zach Edey. The Boilermakers are averaging 1.297 points per possession in their 4 tourney games.

Over on the other side of the bracket, UConn is outscoring its opponents by 45.1 points per 100 possessions. As hard as it is to imagine, the defending champs have been even more dominant in their quest for a repeat title. The offense has been just as good as Purdue’s (1.265 PPP) but the defense has been Fort Knox; opponents have posted a paltry offensive rating of 81.4 in the 4 tournament games against UConn.

For context: Alabama has a net rating of plus-16.4 in the NCAA Tournament. NC State is at plus-18.7.

By the end of the opening weekend, a Purdue-UConn title game looked like the most likely outcome. When the Sweet 16 ended, the matchup looked like an eventuality. Now we’re 1 Saturday afternoon away from a clash of the titans.

At FanDuel, UConn is -185 to win the national title (implied probability: 64.9%). Purdue is priced at +190 (34.5%).

Alabama is priced at +1300 (7.1%). And even that might be generous. BartTorvik gives Alabama a 6.5% chance to win the title.

But if the Crimson Tide can get past the Huskies on Saturday, everything is in play. Basketball — especially at the college level — is fun that way. Sometimes teams get hot. Sometimes teams go cold. Clemson made the Elite Eight and NC State the Final Four in large part because teams just forgot how to shoot the 3 against them.

That shot has become basketball’s equalizer.

Which makes Nate Oats… Denzel Washington?

Alabama plays modern offense as well (and frankly better than) just about everyone in college basketball. This year, nearly 47% of Alabama’s shot attempts have come from beyond the 3-point line and another 42% have come at the rim. Oats believes in optimal offense, and has a team that actually practices what he preaches.

Only 11% of Alabama’s attempts are deemed “farther” 2s, according to BartTorvik.

And that actually makes Saturday’s Final Four contest between Alabama and UConn more grey than you’d think.

UConn’s defensive prowess is moored by its shot-blocking big man, Donovan Clingan, who had 8 blocks in the second-round win over Northwestern and 5 in the Elite Eight victory over Illinois.

Be it by design (ahem, Brad Underwood) or by circumstance, teams end up inside the arc against UConn. The Huskies’ opponents this season have gotten 52% of their points from 2 and just 28% of their points from 3. They defend the 3-point line well enough but are more than happy to funnel into Clingan, who averages 6.7 blocks per 40 minutes.

The Illini had a plan and never deviated from it. They attacked the rim, and it didn’t work. Clingan was there to turn them away each time. Illinois went 8-for-30 on layups and saw 10 total shots swatted away.

But they also only hit 6 of their 23 attempts from beyond the arc. UConn has length at every spot. What’s a team to do?

Only 7 times this season has an opponent shot at least 40% from 3 against the Huskies. Three of those games ended in 20-plus-point wins for UConn.

St John’s hit 10 of its 22 and nearly upset the champs on March 15. Creighton hit 14 of its 28 shots from 3 on Feb. 20 and blasted the Huskies 85-66.

UConn hasn’t lost since.

Alabama, a team that has shot at least 40 3s in a game on 5 different occasions this season, will look to let it fly.

They make 37% of their 3s, which isn’t quite elite but is still perfectly influential when you factor in the volume. Consider this: is a semi-open Mark Sears 3-pointer a higher-percentage shot than a contested attempt at the rim with Clingan hanging in the airspace? It might be. Oats undoubtedly knows the answer because his team of assistants and support staffers have already done the math.

Make no mistake, Alabama has to be Alabama to beat UConn. It got to the Final Four by being unapologetically itself; there’s no reason to switch up now. But UConn will test that fortitude.

Clingan is going to block shots. He’ll probably block several because Alabama is, to some extent, going to do what Illinois did. That’s the gameplan — shrink the defense. Can Alabama afford to go down by 13 first-half points again? Probably not. After all, UConn’s offense is statistically the best in the country (126.7 adjusted offensive rating, per KenPom).

But if Alabama makes its 3s, UConn will feel some pressure for the first time all tournament.

Oats doesn’t believe his team will be intimidated by the Huskies. That’s sort of the endgame a coach has in mind when he puts together a nonconference schedule that features Oregon, Clemson, Purdue, Creighton, and Arizona. You want a group whose confidence is unflappable.

Alabama can pride itself on that. The Tide were largely cold from 3 in March before catching fire against Carolina. Then they started 1-for-13 from deep against Clemson, fell down, kept their composure, and hit 9 of their next 13.

“We’re gonna try to run them,” Oats said Monday on his radio show. “The higher scoring the game, I think the better off we are.”

The big matchup is strength on strength, and UConn has better talent. Alabama is rightfully an underdog, though Vegas seems a little less impressed by Alabama than others. FanDuel has the Huskies as an 11.5-point favorite.

BartTorvik projects an 86-76 UConn win. KenPom projects an 86-78 UConn win. If you put stock in either, you’re backing the Crimson Tide, who are 21-15 against the spread this season.

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“Nobody’s gonna pick us to win,” Oats said. “We’re kind of playing with house money a little bit, if you will. We weren’t supposed to beat Clemson. We weren’t supposed to beat North Carolina. A lot of people were picking against us against Grand Canyon.”

Alabama is the 14th team to be a double-digit dog in a national semifinal or a national title game, per Sports Odds History. The 13 previous favorites all went on to win their respective games, with 7 of the contests being decided by double-digits.

Ahead of the game, Oats would have us believe there’s no pressure on Alabama to make history.

It already has.

“We’ve played hard these 4 four games, and we’re going to go play as hard as we can,” Oats said. “But there’s not going to be a ton of pressure on us. We made the school’s first Final Four. We’re going to enjoy the fact that we’re there, that we’re 1 of 4 teams left playing, but we’re there, so we’re going to try to win it.

“… We’re not going to be picked to win, I know that, but sometimes, you know, the best team, the one that’s picked, doesn’t always win.”