Under Nick Saban, Alabama has an ominous history as a home favorite of less than 7 points
Alabama is listed as a 6-point favorite in the game Saturday against Georgia in Bryant-Denny Stadium. If history is any indication, that may be an ominous sign for the outcome of the game, which pits the SEC’s only remaining undefeated teams.
According to a stat from ESPN researcher Chris Fallica, Alabama as a home favorite of less than seven points is 0-4-1 under coach Nick Saban. The last instance came last year against LSU, and before that, it was 2011 LSU, 2010 Auburn, 2007 Georgia and 2007 Arkansas.
The most notable storyline of this game is No. 2 Alabama’s high-flying offense against No. 3 Georgia’s suffocating defense. Alabama has the No. 1 offense in the country at 8.66 yards per play. Georgia has the No. 1 defense at 3.7 yards per play among teams that have played more than one game.
There is also speculation that the winner could take the No. 1 ranking in the AP Top 25 away from Clemson for the first time this season. It not only has SEC ramifications, but the winner will be in the driver’s seat for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Under Nick Saban, Alabama has been less than a seven-point favorite at home five times. The Tide has lost four of the games outright (’19 LSU, ’11 LSU, ’10 AUB, ’07 UGA) and pushed the other (’07 ARK).
— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) October 13, 2020