Each week, Saturday Down South’s playoff predictor will project which four teams would make the College Football Playoff if the season ended now.

The formula takes into account Vegas national championship odds, offensive and defensive efficiency, analytics, strength of schedule, division standings and the major polls.

The team with the lowest score is the most likely to make the four-team Playoff. (You can find a longer explanation of the formula at the bottom of this post.)

Keep in mind, this is not a projection of where things will be at the end of the season. It’s a projection of where things stand if the season ended today.

Under that premise, Alabama vs. Florida State and Baylor vs. TCU would meet in the national semifinals.

Ohio State, Oregon, Mississippi State and Marshall are the only other teams most likely to push into the playoff, according to our formula.

Week 12 eliminated three more teams from Playoff contention, meaning 120 of the 128 FBS programs have no hope for a national championship.

THE PLAYOFF TEAMS

1. Alabama

Score: 33.5

Last Week: No. 1

The Numbers Say: Thanks to a huge home win against AP/CFP No. 1 Mississippi State, Alabama is No. 2 in the human polls and the analytics metric incorporated by our formula and No. 1 in Vegas and in the Sagarin Ratings. The team’s 24th-best offensive scoring efficiency dings the Tide a small amount, as does the 10-point penalty incurred from a loss to Ole Miss.

Bottom Line: Exact revenge on Auburn in two weeks in the Iron Bowl and the Tide will be a win in Atlanta away from the playoff — possibly as the No. 1 overall seed.

Next Up: vs. Western Carolina.

2. Baylor

Score: 55

Last Week: No. 4

The Numbers Say: The Bears leapfrogged TCU and hopped Mississippi State despite a slightly worse score. The team’s current second-place tie in the Big 12 standings is a slight disadvantage. The human polls, Vegas and the analytics metric all slot Baylor at No. 6, but the team’s stellar overall efficiency helps.

Bottom Line: A head-to-head win against TCU helps, but the Bears need to win with style in the last three games, including against Kansas State in the regular-season finale, to make a strong impression with the committee.

Next Up: vs. Oklahoma State.

3. TCU

Score: 57

Last Week: No. 3

The Numbers Say: The Horned Frogs rank 10th in the analytics metric and seventh in the Sagarin Ratings. The team sports a solid overall efficiency and is the only Big 12 team at 6-1 in conference play.

Bottom Line: TCU is getting ready for Texas, a matchup not nearly as easy as it was early in the season. Gary Patterson’s Horned Frogs are squarely in the playoff discussion, but blowing a 21-point fourth-quarter lead to Baylor may haunt them.

Next Up: at Texas (Nov. 27).

4. Florida State

Score: 60.5

Last Week: No. 5

The Numbers Say: The Seminoles are hammered by a No. 15 ranking in the Sagarin Ratings due to a weak ACC schedule (and Notre Dame’s continuing decline). But the killer is the team’s 47th-ranked defensive scoring efficiency. A No. 1 ranking in the human polls helps, though.

Bottom Line: It’s tough picturing Boston College or Florida knocking off FSU in Tallahassee, and no Coastal Division team is strong enough to challenge them without a major meltdown by Jameis Winston. FSU should be in the playoff.

Next Up: vs. Boston College.

THE PAT HADENS

These teams are the last ones cut by that (crazy?) College Football Playoff Committee. If the season ended today.

5. Ohio State

Score: 63.5

Last: No. 6

The Numbers Say: The Buckeyes just aren’t one of the four best teams in the country right now by any measure outside of Vegas, which gives them the third-best national championship odds. The human polls slot Urban Meyer’s team seventh, the analytics metric ninth and the Sagarin Ratings 10th. The team’s defensive efficiency may not be championship-caliber, but it’s better than last season.

Bottom Line: Right now it’s hard to justify including the Buckeyes ahead of Mississippi State or the one-loss Big 12 frontrunners. But if there’s a surprise in the final few weekends of the regular season, this team is waiting in the wings.

Next Up: vs. Indiana.

6. Oregon

Score: 64

Last: No. 7

The Numbers Say: The Ducks rank in the top three in the human polls, Vegas and analytics and at No. 5 in the Sagarin Ratings. Oregon boasts the top offensive scoring efficiency in the country, but the team’s 77th-ranked defense in the same category is dragging the Ducks way, way down in our formula. If not for that, Oregon would be a clear No. 2.

Bottom Line: Oregon is the Pac-12’s only hope. The Ducks have to ride Marcus Mariota to make up for a banged up offense and a shoddy defense, but it’s worked so far. If the team wins a conference title with just one loss, expect them in the playoff.

Next Up: vs. Colorado.

7. Oregon

Score: 70.5

Last: No. 6

The Numbers Say: The Ducks posted the same score as last week, but fell in the rankings. Oregon owns the No. 1 offense in the country in terms of points per possession, but the defense ranks 82nd in the same category, which destroys the team in our formula. The team also ranks No. 1 in the analytics metric and No. 2 in Vegas.

Bottom Line: Marcus Mariota and company should make the actual playoff if the team wins out, but the injuries are piling up and the defense is vulnerable.

Next Up: vs. Colorado (Nov. 22).

8. Mississippi State

Score: 75.5

Last: No. 2

The Numbers Say: The Bulldogs remain fourth in the human polls, but Vegas (No. 7), the Sagarin Ratings (No. 8) and the analytics metric (15th) all dropped them significantly. The team’s offensive scoring efficiency also is down to 34th in the country as Dak Prescott and Josh Robinson’s play has tailed off.

Bottom Line: Beat Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl and Mississippi State has a shot at the SEC West title. If not, the playoff committee will have a tough choice for the fourth spot, and the Bulldogs will be a big part of that decision.

Next Up: vs. Vanderbilt.

THE DONALD STERLINGS

Only alive on paper.

Marshall

ELIMINATED FROM CONTENTION

These teams will not get a College Football Playoff bid.

Count: 120 of 128

Air Force
Akron
Appalachian State
Arkansas
Arkansas State
Arizona
Arizona State
Army
Auburn
Ball State
Boise State
Boston College
Bowling Green
Buffalo
BYU
California
Central Michigan
Cincinnati
Clemson
Colorado
Colorado State
Connecticut
Duke
East Carolina
Eastern Michigan
Florida
Florida Atlantic
Florida International
Fresno State
Georgia
Georgia Southern
Georgia State
Georgia Tech
Hawaii
Houston
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Kent State
Kentucky
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Monroe
Louisiana Tech
Louisville
LSU
Maryland
Massachusetts
Memphis
Miami (Fla.)
Miami (Ohio)
Michigan
Michigan State
Middle Tennessee
Minnesota
Missouri
Navy
Nebraska
Nevada
New Mexico
New Mexico State
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Northern Illinois
North Texas
Northwestern
Notre Dame
Old Dominion
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Ole Miss
Oregon State
Penn State
Pitt
Purdue
Rice
San Diego State
San Jose State
South Alabama
South Carolina
South Florida
Southern Methodist
Southern Miss
Stanford
Syracuse
Temple
Tennessee
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Texas-San Antonio
Texas State
Toledo
Troy
Tulane
Tulsa
UAB
UCF
UCLA
UNLV
USC
Utah
Utah State
UTEP
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
Washington
Washington State
Western Kentucky
Western Michigan
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming