Each week, Saturday Down South’s playoff predictor will project which four teams would make the College Football Playoff if the season ended now.

The formula takes into account Vegas national championship odds, offensive and defensive efficiency, analytics, strength of schedule, division standings and the major polls.

The team with the lowest score is the most likely to make the four-team Playoff. (For an explanation of our formula, see the italics at the bottom.)

Keep in mind, this is not a projection of where things will be at the end of the season. It’s a projection of where things stand if the season ended today.

Florida State, for example, is the No. 1 team in the country in both major polls. But the Seminoles rank just outside our formula’s Top 10 entering Week 3 due to the nation’s 81st-ranked defense in terms of efficiency and a poor early schedule.

THE PLAYOFF TEAMS

1. Alabama

Score: 41.5

The Numbers Say The Tide edge Oklahoma as the most likely team to make the Playoff thanks to a higher rank in the AP and Coaches Poll and better Vegas odds.

Bottom Line: The Tide just need to keep winning.

Next Up: vs. Southern Miss.

2. Oklahoma

Score: 42

The Numbers Say The Sooners have slightly better numbers than Alabama in offensive and defensive efficiency as well as strength of schedule through two games.

Bottom Line: Oklahoma is in solid position to make the Playoff by continuing to win.

Next Up: vs. Tennessee.

3. Oregon

Score: 46

The Numbers Say: Trouncing Michigan State at home was a double-edged sword. The Ducks hold an advantage against Alabama and Oklahoma in strength of schedule and analytics, but Oregon’s offensive and defensive efficiency is the worst of any team in the Playoff Predictor’s first eight.

Bottom Line: Win the Pac-12 and the Ducks are in the Playoff.

Next Up: vs. Wyoming.

4. Texas A&M

Score: 58.5

The Numbers Say: While still very good, the Aggies take minor hits in the human polls, Vegas odds and analytics. Texas A&M’s offensive and defensive efficiency is on par with Alabama and Oklahoma and better than Oregon.

Bottom Line: A&M’s got a tough road in the SEC West, including games against three of our top six. The offense is terrific, but let’s wait and see.

Next Up: vs. Rice.

THE PAT HADENS

These teams are the last ones cut by that (crazy?) College Football Playoff Committee. If the season ended today.

5. Auburn

Score: 67

The Numbers Say: The Tigers’ analytics and overall efficiency prevent them from making the top four through two weeks, but the other numbers are Playoff-worthy.

Bottom Line: See Texas A&M.

Next Up: at Kansas State (Sept. 18).

6. LSU

Score: 74

The Numbers Say: The Tigers’ analytics and strength of schedule are solid, but Vegas isn’t sold on LSU as a national championship team, and the team’s offensive efficiency ranks 41st in the country.

Bottom Line: Les Miles’ bunch needs to survive a brutal SEC schedule before the team can think Playoff.

Next Up: vs. Louisiana-Monroe.

7. Baylor

Score: 75.5

The Numbers Say: Analytics and strength of schedule sink the Bears through two games. Vegas doesn’t help, either. But the team has the best combined offensive and defensive efficiency in the country.

Bottom Line: Baylor will continue to rise if it wins, setting up a potential play-in type game against Oklahoma.

Next Up: at Buffalo.

8. Notre Dame

Score: 77

The Numbers Say: The Fighting Irish are consistent, ranking near the Top 10 nationally in nearly every category. But they don’t have any elite figures, like Baylor’s efficiency.

Bottom Line: Notre Dame faces road games against two of our Top 10 in the second half of the season. It’s hard to see the Irish escaping unscathed.

Next Up: vs. Purdue.

T9. Georgia

Score: 80

The Numbers Say: The Bulldogs would be one of our four Playoff teams if not for one of the worst offensive and defensive efficiencies of any of the major contenders.

Bottom Line: Georgia only has played one game, and against a ranked opponent. The team’s efficiency likely will improve. As the SEC East favorites, the Bulldogs have a better chance to make the Playoff than many of the teams in front of them.

Next Up: at South Carolina.

T9. USC

Score: 80

The Numbers Say: The polls put USC at a slight disadvantage, and the team can thank Stanford for its 47th-ranked offensive efficiency.

Bottom Line: The Pac-12 is as loaded as the SEC, but very early, the Trojans are on track in the South Division.

Next Up: at Boston College.

THE CHAMPIONSHIP HANGOVER

11. Florida State

Score: 81.5

Bottom Line: The Seminoles are unlikely to stay outside our Top 10 another week, but FSU has to shore up that defense.

THE DAN MARINOS

Strong contenders unlikely to actually win anything.

Count: 14 of 128

12. Ole Miss: 101.5
13. Florida: 123
14. Virginia Tech: 130
15. Arizona State: 130.5
16. Michigan State: 143
17. BYU: 144
T18. UCLA: 153
T18. Louisville: 153
T20. Kansas State: 155.5
T20. Wisconsin: 155.5
22. Stanford: 159.5
23. Missouri: 168
24. TCU: 169.5
25. Nebraska: 171.5

THE BRADY HOKES

Good enough to make a mediocre bowl game. Can you say San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl?

Count: 25 of 128

T26. Arizona: 182.5
T26: Ohio State: 182.5
28. Clemson: 187
29. Pitt: 200
30. Mississippi State: 200.5
31. Duke: 213.5
32. Utah: 214
33. Iowa: 216
34. Northern Illinois: 217
35. Cincinnati: No score (Bearcats have yet to play a game.)
T36. Marshall: 229
T36. Washington: 229
T38. North Carolina: 235.5
T38. Tennessee:  235.5
40. South Carolina: 242
41. Oklahoma State: 246
42. Penn State: 247.5
43. West Virginia: 249.5
44. Oregon State: 250.5
45. Kentucky: 252.5
46. Memphis: 256.5
47. Maryland: 258.5
48. Indiana: 260.5
49. Minnesota: 264
50. Georgia Tech: 265.5

THE VANDY JAMES FRANKLINS

The ceiling is limited, but they’re feisty.

Count: 11 of 128.

51. Texas Tech: 266
52. Rutgers: 271
53. California: 273.5
54. UCF: 276.5
55. Syracuse: 279
56. Michigan: 281.5
57. Miami (FL): 296
58. Boise State: 300.5
59. Illinois: 313.5
60. Kansas: 319.5
61. North Carolina State: 328

THE DONALD STERLINGS

Only alive on paper.

Count: 14 of 128

Arkansas
Army
Boston College
Central Michigan
Colorado
Nevada
New Mexico
New Mexico State
South Alabama
Texas
Texas State
Virginia
Wake Forest
Wyoming

ELIMINATED FROM CONTENTION

These teams will not get a College Football Playoff bid.

Count: 57 of 128

Air Force
Akron
Appalachian State
Arkansas State
Ball State
Boise State
Bowling Green
Buffalo
Colorado State
Connecticut
East Carolina
Eastern Michigan
Florida Atlantic
Florida International
Fresno State
Georgia Southern
Georgia State
Hawaii
Houston
Idaho
Iowa State
Kent State
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana Tech
Massachusetts
Memphis
Miami (Ohio)
Middle Tennessee
Navy
New Mexico
North Texas
Northwestern
Old Dominion
Ohio
Penn State (ineligible)
Purdue
Rice
San Diego State
San Jose State
South Florida
Southern Methodist
Southern Miss
Temple
Texas-San Antonio
Toledo
Troy
Tulane
Tulsa
UAB
UCF
UNLV
UTEP
Utah State
Vanderbilt
Washington State
Western Kentucky
Western Michigan

Formula Explained: For the AP Poll, Coaches Poll and Sagarin Ratings (which emphasize strength of schedule), the Top 25 get points equal to their ranking. In other words, a No. 1 ranking equates to one point and a No. 25 ranking equates to 25 points. Those in the “also receiving votes” category for the AP and Coaches Poll get 30 points for each. Those in the “also receiving votes category for one of the two polls get 30 and 35 points. No votes in either poll equates to 40 points. For Sagarin, teams that rank 26-30 get 30 points, 31-35 get 35 points and 36+ get 40 points.

Vegas odds are based on NCAA Futures to win the national championship. The betting favorite gets one point, the team with the second-best odds gets two points, and so on. Any team with worse odds than “the field” to win the national championship is assigned 45 points.

We use FEI, a Football Outsiders metric, for analytics. Teams in the Top 50 are assigned point values that correspond to their rank in the metric. Every other team is assigned 50 points.

For division standings, first place equates to one point. Tied for first equates to two or three points (with the major polls used as tiebreakers). Solo second place equates to five points. Tied for second equates to seven or eight points (same tiebreakers). Solo third place equates to 15 points. Tied for third equates to 20 or 25 points. Fourth or worse equates to 30 points. The entire Big 12 is counted as a division. For Independents, this metric is based on their AP ranking (Top 10 is one point, Top 25 is five points, receiving votes is 15 points and not receiving votes is 30 points.)

A loss adds a 10-point penalty.