On Thursday, Sam Pittman officially turned the page to 2024.

That was the day of Arkansas’ first spring practice. In the past is a bowl-less 2023. Not in the past is the daunting reality he faces. Year 5 is a “prove it” season. When an athletic director provides a vote of confidence at season’s end, it’s safe to say that whatever version of a hot seat that exists features a coach sitting on it. Pittman is that coach.

There’s no denying that Pittman’s job resurrecting the program in the post-Chad Morris era Arkansas played a part in him getting a Year 5. There’s also no denying that Pittman understood the urgency when he did the once-unimaginable, only-on-a-message-board thing of bringing back Bobby Petrino to run an offense that turtled under Dan Enos’ brief tenure in 2023.

All of this, you know. Well, I suppose it’s possible that you’re an Arkansas fan who turned the page to the 2024 baseball season and things like football spring practices slip past you like “National Cottage Cheese Day” (that can’t be real).

What we need to know is what gets Pittman off the hot seat, out of the doghouse and playing that jukebox again. There’s a path. At least I think there is, despite the regular season over/under of 5.5 wins via FanDuel.

Bobby Petrino has to be Bobby Petrino for Taylen Green

I don’t mean the motorcycle/neck brace version. I mean the version that took A&M from a No. 101 scoring offense to a No. 25 scoring offense even though injuries led to him starting 3 different quarterbacks for multiple games and the pass protection was a train wreck.

Petrino still has it.

His task is developing the exciting, but mistake-prone Green from Boise State. That’s where Petrino’s area of expertise is needed most. He should be able to troubleshoot/adjust in ways that Arkansas couldn’t last year when Dan Enos turned KJ Jefferson into a sitting duck behind a woeful offensive line.

Green doesn’t need to be the second coming of the late Ryan Mallett. He does, however, need to develop into a more reliable quarterback who by season’s end makes you at least say “you take the good with the bad.” There could be a few multi-turnover grenade games in there. But in a schedule that’s loaded with defenses facing major offseason questions, Green having a few breakout showings an upset win or 2 is a must.

Speaking of the schedule …

Get to the first bye week at 3-3

That means UAPB and UAB (that’s confusing) are both wins in the first half of the season. Getting to 3-3 before the first bye means winning just 1 of these games:

  • at Oklahoma State
  • at Auburn
  • vs. Texas A&M (in Arlington, Tex.)
  • vs. Tennessee

Pittman’s squad will likely be an underdog for all 4 of those games. I’m not assuming that Arkansas’ defense — even with that solid Landon Jackson-led defensive line — will be ready to shut down Ollie Gordon II in Stillwater, so let’s pivot to those other 3.

Jordan-Hare Stadium is never a picnic unless you’re New Mexico State playing in late November. Then again, Payton Thorne played out of his mind at Arkansas a week earlier in a game that knocked bowl eligibility off the table in a deflating way.

A&M is the one that Arkansas has to get. While history favors the Aggies, it’s Year 1 for Mike Elko. He’s got a team that’s going to rely heavily on the transfer portal. Can this be a game in which Green connects with Andrew Armstrong and Luke Hasz repeatedly against an unproven A&M secondary? That’s the one the Hogs have to get.

If not, seeing Josh Heupel’s up-tempo offense on the heels of a 2-3 start won’t be fun. That would be a potential breaking point wherein the Arkansas faithful could clear out early and potentially open the door for Hunter Yurachek to follow the anticipated trend of firing a coach before November to get ahead of the new early-December Signing Period.

Any world in which Pittman weathers the 2024 storm involves him getting 1 of those 4 games.

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Pittman needs a home upset badly. Real badly.

Last year’s home slate was one of the most deflating I’ve ever seen for an SEC team.

At home, Arkansas:

  • A) Blew a pair of 2-touchdown leads vs. BYU
  • B) Was on the wrong end of the 7-3 monstrosity vs. Mississippi State
  • C) Trailed 21-3 at the end of the first quarter in a 48-10 loss to Auburn to end bowl hopes
  • D) Failed to beat a Power 5 team
  • E) All the above

It’s “E.” It’s always “E.”

Arkansas’ last win vs. a Power 5 team at home was Nov. 19, 2022 vs. Ole Miss. I’m pretty sure temperatures were below-freezing that night. So the last time that Arkansas fans showed up to Razorback Stadium to watch their team win a Power 5 game without sitting in freezing cold was Sept. 10, 2022 vs. South Carolina.

That’s a cold streak if I’ve ever heard one.

Here are the candidates for the home upsets:

  • vs. Tennessee
  • vs. LSU
  • vs. Ole Miss
  • vs. Texas

Pittman needs 1 of those. All 4 of those teams won at least 9 regular season games and enter 2024 with realistic aspirations to make the 12-team Playoff.

LSU might be the best opportunity for an upset out of that group. Let’s not forget that Arkansas played the Tigers down to the wire in both of the first 2 matchups of the Brian Kelly era. While there’s hope that Blake Baker will turn around a wildly disappointing LSU defense and Garrett Nussmeier will prevent a massive drop-off after replacing Jayden Daniels, neither of those things is a given.

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Arkansas also played Ole Miss competitively last year in Oxford, but with all the offensive firepower that Lane Kiffin’s squad returns, it’s hard to envision the Hogs being the fly in the Playoff ointment.

And hey, what about Texas? Pittman’s first national spotlight home upset came against the Longhorns in 2021. More recently, however, Texas turned back into a powerhouse and is entering 2024 with the most legitimate preseason national title buzz in 15 years.

Now would be a good time to flip that brutal 1-score trend

In the last 2 seasons, Pittman was 3-9 in games decided by 1 score. He’s out of moral victories. This isn’t about covering a spread.

It’s hard to fathom that the 6-game losing streak last year featured 5 losses by 7 or less. Arkansas suffered a 6-game winning streak in which its average margin of defeat was 6 points.

It always felt like KJ Jefferson was taking some crippling sack on a last-minute drive that came up short. Jefferson is gone, but if this offensive line can’t protect against a 3-man rush during a 2-minute drill, forget about it. The Pittman era will end in anticlimactic fashion.

So what’s the regular win total that gets Pittman another year?

I’ll set the bar to meet at 6 regular season wins. Less than that? Pittman is gone and he’ll know it. But a 7-5 season would be a 3-win improvement wherein Arkansas would check plenty of those boxes. If that happens, maybe both Petrino and DC Travis Williams are in good standing at season’s end. Perhaps Green is one of the surprise players of the year.

Alternatively, 6-6 could happen. Not all 6-6 seasons are created equally. Does 6-6 include 3 obvious nonconference wins and 3 victories against SEC teams who never even sniff the Playoff conversation? Or does it include those 3 likely nonconference wins, along with A&M, Mississippi State and a bowl-or-bust win at likely preseason top-10 Mizzou?

Something tells me that no matter how 2024 shakes out, we’re going to know about Pittman’s future well before that regular-season finale. We’ll either hear that jukebox loud and clear, or the page will turn to 2025 well before 2024 ends.