Why Arkansas should make the biggest defensive jump of any SEC team
Don’t get consumed by the raw numbers of Arkansas’ defense in 2020. They weren’t great. They weren’t even good.
The Razorbacks ranked No. 99 in scoring defense and No. 105 in total defense. More specifically they were No. 102 defending the pass and No. 92 against the run. They finished the year with a 4-game losing streak, and 3 of those games saw the Hogs surrender 50-plus.
Yikes. That’s not exactly the type of note any unit wants to end on. On the surface, that doesn’t exactly scream “inevitable improvement.”
I’ll beg to differ on that. In fact, I’ll take it a step further and say that no SEC defense will improve as much as the Hogs.
Yeah, part of that is because when you actually have room to improve and you aren’t a top-20 defense, it’s in the cards.
Is that my way of saying Arkansas will be a top-20 defense in 2021? No, but a top 30-40 unit doesn’t seem very far-fetched with Barry Odom back, especially for a group that allowed 24.7 points per contest in the first 6 games (that would’ve been good to finish No. 38 in 2020).
By the way, Odom got a raise to $1.75 million after putting up those lackluster raw numbers, which means only 2 defensive coordinators in America (Mike Elko and Alex Grinch) will make more than him. Why? Because through the first 6 games, Arkansas was an entirely different unit. Depth up front was a major issue to close the year. Even as Sam Pittman rose above expectations with a 3-3 start, the looming concern for the stretch run centered around defensive depth. In a year with COVID-related absences, the roster wasn’t in position to withstand injuries up front.
Losing top pass-rushers Jonathan Marshall (NFL) and Julius Coates (transfer portal) won’t help that “destined to improve” argument, but returning a healthy Dorian Gerald will, as well as getting a shot of life from new defensive line coach Jermial Ashley. At Tulsa, Ashley helped a top-30 defense that finished No. 12 in FBS in tackles for loss per game. Pittman knows that depth issues or not, 1.4 sacks per game won’t cut it in the SEC, and neither will a pressure grade that PFF ranked last among SEC teams.
The good news? And perhaps the entire reason that defensive improvement feels imminent beyond the whole “it’s not an all-SEC schedule” thing?
(I do actually think the schedule thing is a factor. The Arkansas defense seemed like a team that really could’ve used the occasional Group of 5/FCS break to get healthy at points last year instead of battling SEC rosters every week. I thought the Mizzou game was a good example of a unit that ran out of gas.)
It’s what Arkansas returns. The Hogs are No. 15 in FBS in percentage of returning defensive production, which is the best in the SEC.
Sure, it helps when tackling machine/folk hero Grant Morgan is back. Morgan racked up 111 tackles in just 9 games, which was good for No. 3 in FBS. The first-team All-SEC linebacker, who missed the regular-season finale, is back to lead a unit that includes fellow starting linebacker Bumper Pool (who also was banged up down the stretch), as well as breakout safeties Jalen Catalon and Joe Foucha. Marshall is the lone starter Arkansas will replace.
The guys up front who got significant snaps as underclassmen in 2020 like Isaiah Nichols and Eric Gregory should get to play alongside Zach Williams, who flashed major potential early before playing limited snaps in the latter half of the season. It’s defensive end where Arkansas needs to get better, though the pieces are in place for that to happen.
The other good news is that instead of getting their first spring practice with this coaching staff wiped out like it did last year, this Arkansas defense is getting a (relatively) normal spring. It no longer has to adapt to Odom’s 3-2-6 on the fly. That seems as significant as anything.
This is the first time since 2013 at Memphis that Odom has a Year 2 as a coordinator. That group went from No. 80 in FBS to No. 45 with an improvement of nearly 6 points per game. More notable was the fact that Odom turned Memphis into the No. 11 run defense in America in Year 2.
He hopes to do at Arkansas, where he stayed instead of leaving for a job like LSU or Texas, both of which reportedly offered more than what Odom got to stay in Fayetteville. It’ll be interesting to see what Odom does with expectations. This is no longer a roster that’ll be compared to one with NCAA sanctions like last year’s group (according to an anonymous coach). This is a group that, when healthy, showed it could slow down legitimate SEC offenses. Even if the takeaway numbers decline, the Hogs defense should improve in virtually every other area.
The last time Arkansas had a defense finish in the top half of FBS in scoring was 2014. That’s actually the only time that happened in the post-Bobby Petrino era, which is now entering Year 10 (what a strange thought). That should change in 2021. It’ll be a surprise if Arkansas doesn’t improve by a touchdown per game.
Soon, those raw numbers will be worth looking at.
I think I got Arky going 5-7 next year. Tough schedule.
Best shots an SEC wins are Auburn and MSU. Maybe Mizzou but they look like they are on the rise.
Ole Miss, Missouri, Ms State, Auburn and perhaps LSU are all games Arkansas can win and did last year. It should be a fun year.
can win / or did win last year.**
New coaching staff so who knows, but Arkansas has beaten Auburn once over the last eight years and generally loses in blowout fashion. Not saying the trend will continue, but I like Auburn’s chances at this point. The programs just aren’t comparable.
Twice in the last eight years but for the worst ref screw up this century.
Fine, and even then it came down to the wire. Having about a 25% win percentage over the last decade versus Auburn is awful. You’re splitting hairs here. You have to like Auburn’s chances until Arkansas proves they can be competitive consistently. Even Bama/Ole Miss games are more nail-biting than Auburn/Arkansas. lol
While I do expect improvement from the Arkansas defense, I would think that LSU will be the most improved unit in the conference. We do have more talent on paper and we are coming from further back. The Arkansas advantage is they have their staff back while LSU is starting over, again.
How is LSU coming from further back than Arkansas? The talent level right now at LSU is clearly a huge advantage. Changed the DC but the idea was it would be an improvement even though its been said that Pelini was scheming the defense exactly as HC told him to do and not what Pelini wanted to do.
LSU’s defense ranked 13th in the conference last season while Arkansas ranked 11th. That’s coming from further back. Your comments on Pelini and Orgeron are just guesses.
And yet you still beat em last year.
It seems likely that Pelini ran the defense he wanted to run. He arrived with a lot more credibility than he left with.
Well, it wasnt all the doom and gloom at Arky. They did get robbed in the Auburn game and even Auburn cant deny that. And the Missouri game was a “who has the ball last” game…one game lost by 2 and one 2 point robbery. But yes that was way too many points given up and in fact their game with Bama looked a lot like the previous Morris debacles. I would expect that Ole Miss isnt ignoring their awful defense and Missouri has hired a new DC. We’ll see.
The hog defense stated the season with the “bend don’t break” defense which means you are expecting to have the defense out on the field longer. Depth was the issue and the team ran out of gas.
We would really be hurting at LB this year had not Morgan and henry returned due to the COVID rule. We returned more COVID seniors than any other SEC team and that will provide much needed help.
Georgia, Al and LSU are the only realistic games we have no chance. A&M probalby not but eventually we’ll break that streak. We aren’t winning all of the others, but after our 4-0 OOC wins (we will beat Texas) we’ll see how the chips fall.
“Yeah, part of that is because when you actually have room to improve”
Connor is correct, even if it’s completely obvious, they have no where to go but up. It’s odd that most everywhere Odom has gone it’s been like that, Memphis was near the very bottom when he made them a midling D unit team. That backfield at Mizzou was clearly shakey when he was hired back by Pinkel. When has Odom ever made an average or decent defense better?
Mizzou fans sure do hate on Barry a lot haha. We’ll take him!
More than happy for you to have him, much better off now without him.
You’re missing the point.
Yeah like the Missouri was much better.
you’re missing the point also. Here it is again, for you and East Clint:
Barry Odom has true value psychologically as a coach. This takes a team a long way. But lots of team’s can achieve a good psychological foundation to play from, so what does Odom do from that point forward?, I can tell you one thing, no matter how good your middle linebacker is, you can still have a terrible defense. I’m not saying Odom will always be limited as a DC, but I am saying he has a long history of putting questionable defenses out on the field. So he has to do something real to change that. Talking season will be over soon (Spurrier). I guarantee that paying Odom more won’t make him better.
“Points per game through the first six games”, what a BS statistic. Let’s include the UT game but not the UF game. Whatever. Working a little too hard to get to a preconceived conclusion.
It’s not like the first six games included cupcakes. The preconceived conclusion was that the defense played well but lacked depth and ran out of gas. I know how our series has gone, but to lose 9 in a row and still have a ten game lead in the series overall shows your butt has been kicked plenty.
Overall series is a BS statistic. Modern college football (scholarship limits) shows the series practically even.