What if Deshaun Watson chose Auburn?
Back in 2013 when Deshaun Watson, then the top-rated quarterback prospect in the nation, took a “secret” trip to Auburn it caused a bit of a stir.
Watson, who originally denied he made the trip until he was forced to come clean, revisited that period in his life this week as one of the Heisman favorites returns to Auburn again, but this time as the quarterback of second-ranked Clemson.
In the world of hindsight, it’s been asked how different Auburn would be had Watson flipped to the program. How different would Watson’s journey be?
Since time travel doesn’t exist, one can only assume and with the little that we have to look back on, I can say with some confidence that Watson’s path would be similar but it might have taken a year longer to get there, which means the 2016 Auburn Tigers could have been heading down a similar path as the 2015 Clemson Tigers.
Let’s go in a little detail.
2014 – Watson would probably redshirt.
Watson won the starting job at Clemson as a true freshman during the third game of the season against Florida State. Up until that point, Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney had started redshirt senior Cole Stoudt and brought Watson in for certain series. By halftime of the FSU game, Watson was going to be the guy full-time. Stoudt was nothing more than a temporary placeholder.
However, Auburn had a much better situation at quarterback. Nick Marshall was coming off of a season where he and running back Tre Mason led the Tigers to the BCS National Championship Game and were one or two plays away from winning their second title in four years.
Marshall was going to be the starter in 2014, and there was no reason to think that the Tigers’ offense was going to be an issue, and it wasn’t. Marshall threw for over 2,500 yards and rushed for nearly 800 yards as a senior and accounted for 31 total touchdowns.
The Tigers lost five games in 2014, but they only had one bad offensive game all season – a 34-7 loss at Georgia. Otherwise, they scored 23 points in a loss to Mississippi State, 38 points in a loss to Texas A&M, 44 points in a loss to Alabama and 31 points in an overtime loss to Wisconsin in the Outback Bowl.
So Watson would have likely redshirted.
2015 offseason – Watson vs. Johnson: The QB battle?
Remember the thing about hindsight? If we knew now what we knew then, we’d know everything. Jeremy Johnson is an interesting case of hindsight because fans tend to forget how bullish they were on Johnson.
Johnson had two starts in his first two years at the program and 10 appearances overall. He completed around 73 percent of his passes with 9 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Johnson started the season opener against Arkansas in 2014 with Marshall sitting as a punishment for violating team rules. Johnson went 12-of-16 for 243 yards and 2 touchdowns in one half against the Razorbacks.
The general consensus was that Johnson was the Tigers’ quarterback of the future, and the Arkansas game solidified that line of thinking. Johnson was getting Heisman attention, and he was preseason Second-Team All-SEC despite a limited résumé.
Johnson would enter the spring of 2015 as the number one guy on the spring depth chart, bottom line. Whether he stays there is a matter of debate, but let’s look at the history of coaches in general when choosing a quarterback. Most of the time, they are going to pick the “safe” option, even if the fans hate it. It’s why Greyson Lambert is starting for Georgia on Saturday despite Bulldog Nation practically BEGGING for five-star true freshman Jacob Eason to start.
Heck, it’s why Cole Stoudt started over Watson at Clemson. Who’s Cole Stoudt anyway? What did he ever do to deserve that spot over Watson other than stay in Clemson’s program for five years?
But Johnson wasn’t even the “safe choice.” He had some legitimate hype surrounding him based on what we had already seen.
2015 season – The Watson takeover begins.
Jeremy Johnson as a full-time starter at Auburn was not good. To this date, it’s hard to understand why it didn’t work out. Johnson looks the part, and he has the skill set. Supposedly, Gus Malzahn is a “QB guru,” so what the heck went wrong? Is this on Johnson or Malzahn? It’s probably a little bit of both.
Either way, Watson would’ve been destined to take over the starting QB job, likely somewhere in the first three weeks. Would Malzahn have been as patient with Johnson’s three interceptions against Louisville if Watson were on the bench? Doubtful.
It’s best to assume that by the end of the LSU game, the staff would have decided to go to Watson for the rest of the season. From there, it’s hard to fully project where Auburn would have gone for the rest of 2015, but it’s safe to assume things would have gotten better because Watson’s a better player.
However, understand that Watson did not become the player he is until last season. He missed five games with injuries in 2014 and only gave us flashes of the potential he had (especially in games against North Carolina, NC State and South Carolina). Watson raised his game in 2015 to become the Heisman favorite you will see on the field Saturday.
So it’s safe to guess Auburn would have been two to three games better in 2015 with Watson replacing Johnson instead of Sean White. Auburn would have likely squeezed its way into the Outback Bowl and walked into the 2016 season with a top 15 ranking and a redshirt sophomore quarterback that everyone was high on.
Things would have likely been different for Johnson as well. He would have seen the writing on the wall with Watson entrenched as the starter and likely transferred to a place where he could compete for the starting job. White probably would have never signed with the Tigers to begin with.
Instead, Watson will be on the other sideline against an Auburn team that’s picked to finish near the bottom of the SEC West and has more questions than answers at the quarterback position as Malzahn continues to look for the right mix between White, Johnson and junior college transfer John Franklin III. White will get the start on Saturday, but Malzahn has said that he expects all three quarterbacks to play this season — not exactly a ringing endorsement of the choice he’s made.
Sometimes, it’s that one recruit that can make all the difference.